February 2019 - NorthStar Capital Advisors

Thirty Years Ago Today…

Thirty years ago to this day, the following words were written:

“We do not have, never have had, and never will have an opinion about where the stock market, interest rates or business activity will be a year from now.”

–Warren E. Buffett, the world’s most admired, least imitated investor, in his annual letter to shareholders 30 years, dated February 28, 1989.

Note:

On February 28, 1989, the Standard & Poor’s 500-Stock Index closed at 288.26. Yesterday it closed at 2,792, fairly close to ten times where it was on the day of Mr. Buffett’s letter. Of course, this ignores dividends.
The cash dividend of the S&P 500 for the full year 1989 was $11.73. For the full year 2018, it was $53.61, a bit more than four and a half times where it was in 1989.
To get a sense of how these increases compare to inflation, note that the Consumer Price Index stood at 122 in February 1989. In January 2019 it was 253, having slightly more than doubled in the interim.

When will we ever learn?
It was never about “timing the market.”
It is always about TIME IN THE MARKET.

#1 Not paying for financial guidance
People who have no problem paying for the services of an accountant or lawyer often balk at the prospect of cutting a check to pay for investment advice. Instead, they rely on “free” help from retirement advisers they meet at banks, brokerage firms and retirement seminars.

#2 Investing in something you don’t understand
If your financial adviser recommends an investment you can’t explain to someone else, just say no. It will likely carry steep fees (to pay steep commissions) and be less wonderful than it is touted to be.

#3 Supporting your adult children
You might be tempted to help them with a down payment or living expenses, but unless you are certain that you have enough to ensure your own survival, don’t do it.

#4 Low-balling elder-care costs
When planning for retirement, few people think about how much they might end up spending to support elderly parents. Inflation and longevity could erase the purchasing power of the children’s pension and savings, leaving them with too little to live on, let alone cover medical expenses.

#5 Underestimating how much you will need
It is easy to underestimate the impact of inflation and longevity, or the cost of health care, supporting family members or caring for a spouse with Alzheimer’s disease or cancer.

Source: Wall Street Journal

10 Most Common Behavior Biases of Investors

Robert Seawright with Madison Avenue Securities assembled this list of the ten most common behavioral biases that hinder investors:

Confirmation bias – we gather facts and see those facts in a way that supports our pre-conceived conclusions
Optimism bias – our confidence in our judgement is usually greater than our objective accuracy
Loss aversion – the pain of losing $100 is at least twice as impactful as the pleasure of gaining $100 (causes investors to hold onto their losing stocks too long)
Self-serving bias – the good stuff that happens is my doing while the bad stuff is somebody else’s fault
Planning fallacy – overrate our own capacities and exaggerate our abilities to shape the future
Choice paralysis – we are readily paralyzed when there are too many choices
Herding – we run in herds, latching onto the group think and moving in lock step
We Prefer Stories to Analysis – people love a good narrative and prefer to be swept up by the story rather than work through the definitive numbers
Recency bias – we tend to extrapolate recent events into the future indefinitely
Bias blind-spot – the inability to recognize that we suffer from the aforementioned cognitive distortions!

Guessing at Retirement?

Here are some startling facts when it comes to retirement planning:

75% of middle-class Americans say their estimates of their retirement needs are based on “some sort of guess”.
Middle-class American believe the median cost of their out-of-pocket health care in retirement will be $47,000 when the actual number according to the Center for Retirement Research is $260,000.
On average, middle-class American expect to withdraw 10% of their nest egg annually in retirement. Most experts recommend annual withdrawal rates of only 3% to 4%.
34% of middle-class Americans expect to live off of 50% or less of their pre-retirement income. Since the median household income is ~$50,000, these folks are planning on living off of less than $25,000 per year.

Are you playing the guessing game or have you done detailed calculations of your retirement needs?

Source: New York Times

Thirty Years Ago Today…

5 Big Retirement Mistakes

10 Most Common Behavior Biases of Investors

Guessing at Retirement?

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