Investing 101 - Charlotte Financial Planning & Advice

GameStop + memes = tulips (and Sirens)

Did you hear GameStop went viral?

Here’s a quick guide to the market frenzy you’re seeing in the headlines.

But before we dive in, please don’t lose sight of this essential fact: all this mayhem means very little to the majority of investors. If you’re properly diversified, your 401(k) is fine and your IRA is still doing its thing.

Our clients know that their NorthStar portfolios are firewalled from craziness like this thanks to this critically important truth: We will never own enough of any one idea to make a killing in it. We will never own enough of any one idea to get killed by it.

In fact, it is our considered opinion that owning individual stocks, shorting stocks, and hedge funds are all a form of the Sirens’ song (more on that in the last section below).

Now let’s look at how we got here, and what the impact is for average investors.

Long email ahead. (Buckle up, it’s a little complicated.)

What is GameStop and why does everyone care?

GameStop is a brick-and-mortar video game chain that hit hard times in the pandemic. Like many distressed companies, it was targeted by short sellers betting that the stock’s price would go down.¹

Basically, short sellers do the opposite of most investors. They try to make money when a stock’s price falls. They borrow shares from their brokerage for a fee, immediately sell them, and plan to buy them back later at a lower price when the price falls. Shorting is a strategy used by certain types of hedge funds.

What’s a short squeeze?

Shorting stocks is risky since any positive news or interest in a company can drive the stock’s price up. When short sellers bet wrong and a stock’s price rises, they can be forced to buy shares at higher prices to cover their losses (or pony up more collateral).

A squeeze happens when short sellers scramble to buy shares to cover their positions when the stock price is rising. The more investors who buy and hold those shares, the harder it is for short sellers to find shares to buy (exposing them to potentially huge losses).

With me so far?

Where does Reddit come in?

After it became clear that short sellers were betting on GameStop’s demise, the popular company became the focus of amateur traders on the popular WallStreetBets forum on Reddit, a popular community of chatrooms and forums.

By banding together and coordinating buying activity, these small-time traders boosted the stock’s price far above what the company’s financial fundamentals support, putting pressure on the hedge funds betting the other way.²

The stock went viral.

Why?

Social media chatter + free trading apps like Robinhood + bull market + new investors with time on their hands = FRENZY

Is it illegal? That’s a stretch. These armchair traders are egging each other into speculative bets, but we don’t think it rises to the level of illegal market manipulation. However, regulators might feel differently.

Is it bad for markets? The battle between gleeful amateurs pushing prices up and hedge funds scrambling to force prices down has led to some of the highest volume trading days on record and cost short sellers billions.³

Is this David vs. Goliath?

We don’t think the GameStop bubble is just about greed or boredom or euphoria. We see a powerful narrative at play.

We think a lot of these small traders are angry at the perception that All-Powerful Wall Street is pulling strings and using their connections to hurt mom-and-pop investors. They see this as an opportunity to stick it to the big-money pros by using their own strategies against them.

It’s new school vs. old school. Rebels vs. the Empire. Bueller vs. Principal Rooney. Reddit vs. CNBC.

So, should I be investing in GameStop?

No! GameStop’s stock is massively inflated and trading has been halted multiple times because of its meteoric rise.⁴ At this point, it looks like folks are piling in just to say they were there.

When the bubble bursts, it’ll be a rush to sell and many GameStop holders will end up losing most of their investment.

(It might already be happening by the time you read this.)

We’ve seen frenzies like this many times before. Tulip mania in the 1630s, the Nifty Fifty in the 1970s, the dot-coms in the 1990s, Bitcoin’s multiple bubbles over the last decade, etc. We’ll see more in the future.

Why are people angry at Robinhood?

Amidst the buying frenzy, Robinhood and other popular brokerage platforms suddenly restricted trading on several red-hot stocks, including GameStop.⁵

Protests erupted from investors, many market pros (not the short sellers, obviously), lawmakers and more.

Did Robinhood halt trading to appease big investors at the expense of small investors? Did they do it to protect markets from manipulation and liquidity problems?

What are the implications of this frenzy?

There’s no predicting the future, obviously, but we think a few things are likely. Most bubbles end naturally when the euphoria turns to panic, folks start selling, and the price crashes.

However, it’s also possible that regulators will step in if they think there’s risk to markets (or they see too many investors getting hurt).

We think this ride’s going to end in tears for many folks caught up in it. But I’m not sure who will be crying hardest.

Finally, The Sirens

Remember the story from The Odyssey, where Ulysses and his crew have to sail past the island of the Sirens?

The Sirens, you’ll recall, sing a song so seductively sweet that no sailors can resist it: they must steer toward the song, only to be dashed upon the rocks surrounding the island.

Ulysses, being the conniver he is, looks to have it both ways: he wants somehow to hear the song while not getting shipwrecked. So he stuffs all his crewmen’s ears with wax, and has himself lashed to his ship’s mast — ordering his mates on pain of death not to obey him if he orders them to change course.

Individual stocks (GameStop!), shorting, and hedge funds are all part of the Sirens’ song, and they are singing it to you and to millions of other investors, who are perhaps losing touch with how fatal it will be to their long-term plans if the “miracle” implodes.

In this analogy, we are the one true friend who accepts the responsibility of lashing you inextricably to the mast. And diversification is the rope.

¹_{https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1019249/what-the-heck-is-going-on-with-gamestop}
²_{https://www.marketwatch.com/story/gamestop-stock-has-another-volatile-trading-day-with-more-price-spikes-and-trading-halts-11611686411}
³_{https://www.ft.com/content/56658052-76fe-4910-8cb7-810039753f7c}
_{https://www.reuters.com/article/us-retail-trading-shortbets-idUSKBN29X1SW?taid=6012f37e9ac87d000147d4e3&utm_source=reddit.com}
⁴_{https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/28/robinhood-customer-sues-trading-app-over-gamestop-restrictions.html}

Season two of 2020?

Does it feel like 2021 yet?

The twists and turns so far make it seem like 2020 is dragging into a second season.

As Americans, we’re shocked and worried, and we’re wondering how political disagreements turned into excuses for violence.

As a financial professionals, we know that the politics, protests, and rioting in DC are just one factor affecting markets.

We honestly don’t know what will happen over the next few weeks, but we can help you understand how it affects you as an investor.

Why did markets surge the day the Capitol was attacked?

While the world watched the violence in DC with horror, markets quietly rallied to new records the same day.¹

That’s weird, right?

Well, not really.

We think it boils down to a few things.

Computers and algorithms are dispassionate, executing trades regardless of the larger world.
Markets don’t always react to short-term ugliness. Instead, they reflect expectations about economic and business growth plus a healthy dose of investor psychology.
With elections officially at an end, political uncertainty has dissipated.

Overall, we think investors are looking past the immediate future and hoping that vaccines, increased economic stimulus, and economic growth paint a positive picture of the future.

The Democrats control the White House and Congress. What does that mean for investors?

If you’re like a lot of people, you might think that your party in power is good for markets and your party out of power is bad.

That makes for a stressful experience every four years, right?

Fortunately, that’s not the case at all. Markets are pretty rational with respect to politics and policy.

While businesses and investors generally dislike increased taxes and corporate regulation, the Democrats hold such slim majorities in the House and Senate that it limits their ability to pass many big policy changes.

Also, the Democrats’ immediate agenda is very likely to be focused on fighting the pandemic and passing more stimulus aid, both of which should support stock prices.

Does that mean markets will continue to rally?

No guarantees, unfortunately. With all the frothy market activity and rosy expectations about the future, bad news could knock stocks down a peg or two.

A correction is definitely possible, and some strategists think certain sectors are in a bubble.

Bottom line, expect more volatility.

Well, what comes next?

We wish we could tell you.

We’re hoping that the vicious, divisive politics will come to an end after the inauguration, and the politicians can get back to work getting us through the pandemic.

We’re optimistic that the light at the end of the tunnel is getting closer and we can start going back to normal.

We’re proud of what scientists and medical professionals have been able to accomplish in such a short amount of time.

We’re grateful for the folks around us.

We’e hopeful about the future.

How about you?

What’s your take? We’re interested to hear your thoughts.

Warmly,
The NorthStar Team

P.S. Tax laws are likely to change under the Biden presidency. We don’t know exactly when they’ll happen or what they’ll look like, but we’ll be in touch when we know more.

¹_{https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/07/stocks-rally-to-record-highs-traders-on-whats-next-for-markets.html}

Investing Lessons from an Exceptionally Instructive Year

Once in a very great while, there comes a year in the economy and the markets that may serve as a tutorial — in effect, a master class in the principles of successful long-term, goal-focused investing. Two thousand twenty was just such a year.

On December 31, 2019, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock index closed at 3,230.78. This past New Year’s Eve, it closed at 3,756.07, some 16.3% higher. With reinvested dividends, the total return of the S&P 500 was about 18.4%.

From these bare facts, you might infer that the equity market had, in 2020, quite a good year. As indeed it did. What should be so phenomenally instructive to the long-term investor is how it got there.

From a new all-time high on February 19th, the market reacted to the onset of the greatest public health crisis in a century by going down roughly a third in five weeks. The Federal Reserve and Congress responded with massive intervention, the economy learned to work around the lockdowns — and the result was that the S&P 500 regained its February high by mid-August.

The lifetime lesson here: At their most dramatic turning points, the economy can’t be forecast, and the market cannot be timed. Instead, having a long-term plan and sticking to it — acting as opposed to reacting, which is our clients’ and our firm’s investment policy in a nutshell — once again demonstrated its enduring value.

(Two corollary lessons are worth noting in this regard. (1) The velocity and trajectory of the equity market recovery essentially mirrored the violence of the February/March decline. (2) The market went into new high ground in midsummer, even as the pandemic and its economic devastations were still raging. Both outcomes were consistent with historical norms. “Waiting for the pullback” once a market recovery gets under way, and/or waiting for the economic picture to clear before investing, turned out to be formulas for significant underperformance, as is most often the case.)

The American economy — and its leading companies — continued to demonstrate its fundamental resilience through the balance of the year, such that all three major stock indexes made multiple new highs. Even cash dividends appear on track to exceed those paid in 2019, which was the previous record year.

Meanwhile, at least two vaccines were developed and approved in record time, and were going into distribution as the year ended. There seems to be good hope that the most vulnerable segments of the population could get the vaccines by spring, and that everyone who wants to be vaccinated can do so by the end of the year, if not sooner.

The second great lifetime lesson of this hugely educational year had to do with the presidential election cycle. To say that it was the most hyper-partisan in living memory wouldn’t adequately express it: adherents to both candidates were genuinely convinced that the other would, if elected/reelected, precipitate the end of American democracy.

In the event, everyone who exited the market in anticipation of the election got thoroughly (and almost immediately) skunked. The enduring historical lesson: never get your politics mixed up with your investment policy.

Still, as we look ahead to 2021, there remains far more than enough uncertainty to go around. Is it possible that the economic recovery — and that of corporate earnings — have been largely discounted in soaring stock prices, particularly those of the largest growth companies? If so, might the coming year be a lackluster or even a somewhat declining year for the equity market, even as earnings surge?

Yes, of course it’s possible. Now, how do you and we — as long-term, goal-focused investors — make investment policy out of that possibility? Our answer: we don’t, because one can’t. Our strategy, as 2021 dawns, is entirely driven by the same steadfast principles as it was a year ago — and will be a year from now.

We have been assured by the Federal Reserve that it is prepared to hold interest rates near current levels until such time as the economy is functioning at something close to full capacity — perhaps as long as two or three more years.

For investors like us, this makes it difficult to see how we can pursue our long-term goals with fixed income investments. Equities, with their potential for long-term growth of capital — and especially their long-term growth of dividends — seem to us the more rational approach. We therefore tune out “volatility.” We act; we do not react. This was the most effective approach to the vicissitudes of 2020. We believe it always will be.

As always, we’re here to talk any and all of these issues through with you.

We wish you a happy, healthy, prosperous and fulfilling 2021.

Strategy is your antidote to hysteria at T-27 days

The coronavirus is still very much with us, as is much of the economic dislocation occasioned by the resulting lockdowns. Granted, we are evidently closing in rapidly on a vaccine—indeed, a number of vaccines. But it may be quite some time yet before most of us will get access to a vaccine, and frustration may abound. Moreover, in the coming weeks we will have to go through a hyperpartisan presidential election, with a variety of voting issues we’ve never had to deal with before.

So before we’re further engulfed by these multiple unknowns, we want to take a moment to review what we as investors should have learned — or relearned — since the onset of the great market panic that began in February/March. And that ended when the S&P 500 Index regained its pre-crisis highs in mid-August.

The lessons, it seems to me, are:

No amount of study — of economic commentary and market forecasting — ever prepares us for really dramatic events, which always seem to come at us out of deep left field. Thus, trying to make investment strategy out of “expert” prognostication — much less financial journalism — always sets investors up to fail. Instead, having a long-term plan, and working that plan through all the fears (and fads) of an investing lifetime, tends to keep us on the straight and narrow, and helps us to avoid sudden emotional decisions.
The equity market went down 34% in 33 days. None of us have ever seen that precipitous a decline before — but with respect to its depth, it was just about average. That is, the S&P Index has declined by about a third on an average of every five years or so since the end of WWII. But in those 75 years, the S&P Index has gone from about 15 to where it is now. The lesson is that, at least historically, the declines haven’t lasted, and long-term progress has always reasserted itself.
Almost as suddenly as the market crashed, it completely recovered, surmounting its February 19 all-time high on August 18. Note that the news concerning the virus and the economy continued to be dreadful, even as the market came all the way back. We think there are actually two great lessons here. (1) The speed and trajectory of a major market recovery very often mirror the violence and depth of the preceding decline. (2) The equity market most often resumes its advance, and may even go into new high ground, considerably before the economic picture clears. If we wait to invest before we see unambiguously favorable economic trends, history tells us that we may have missed a very significant part of the market advance.
The overarching lesson of this year’s swift decline and rapid recovery is, of course, that the market can’t be timed — that the long-term, goal-focused equity investor is best advised to just ride it out.
These are the investment policies our clients have been following all along, and if anything, our experience this year has validated this approach even further.

A word now — really just a repetition of what we’ve said to you before — about the election. Simply stated: it’s unwise in the extreme to exit the quality equity investments you’ve been accumulating for your most cherished lifetime financial goals because of the uncertainties surrounding the election.

Aside from the self-inflicted wound of incurring capital gains taxes, your chances of getting out and then back in advantageously are historically very poor, nor can we possibly be helpful to you in attempting to do so. As we have done all year — and as we do every election year — we urge you to just stay the course.

As always, we’re here to talk any and all of these issues through with you.

Thank you, as always, for your support and your engagement. It is a privilege to know you.

The Investment Answer …simple, but not easy?

Everyone wants to know how to earn the most money with their investments. We all want that, right? Well, the answer is so simple you can scribble it on a cocktail napkin. We made a short video to share that sketch with you and to give you the answer. But be warned! There’s a paradoxical catch — “simple” doesn’t necessary mean “easy.”

Transcript:

Everyone wants to know how to earn the most money with their investments. We all want that, right? Well, the answer — The Investment Answer — is so simple you can scribble it on a cocktail napkin. That’s exactly what my friend and New York Times columnist Carl Richards has done for us in this sketch.

These are the factors that drive portfolio returns in the real world. The big circle on the left are the heavy hitters in rank order of importance. While the tiny circle in the bottom right reflects what doesn’t work.

By far the most influence is wielded by your behavior as an investor. That’s #1 by a wide margin. Do you take the long view with your investments? Do you understand that short-term volatility is normal? And, do you appreciate that pullbacks are temporary and the uptrend is permanent? The second biggest driver of returns is the percentage of stocks in your portfolio. And then what kind of stocks? Small companies have outperformed large companies over the long haul. And, value companies — those priced at a discount relative to their intrinsic value — outperform growth companies over the long term.

What’s not part of the investment answer? What’s is not a path to investing success? Marketing timing, stock picking, CNBC, and your brother-in-law’s advice.

Our team of PhDs at NorthStar Capital Advisors created this data-driven and time-tested approach for carefully managing our clients’ money. It’s formed by observation, by academic research, and by our real-world experience of successful investing over the past 14+ years.

But knowing the answer doesn’t necessarily translate to the success that we all seek. Think about our health. We all know how to live a healthy life, right? Nutrition and exercise. There’s the answer — The Health Answer — But do we faithfully practice these day in and day out, year after year?

To quote Warren Buffet, one of the greatest investors of all time, “Investing is simple, but not easy.” There’s the crucial paradox. “Investing is simple, but not easy.”

We practice the principles of long-term investing that have most reliably yielded favorable long-term results. Those principles are: planning; a rational optimism based on experience, and finally — patience and discipline. If you have any questions about “the investment answer” or that paradox of simple but not easy? We would love to hear from you.

As always, thank you for watching, we appreciate the opportunity to support your financial success, and please be well.

Climate risk (+ baby jaguar)

Need some distractions from your day? Scroll down to the bottom of this article. There’s a baby jaguar.

But first, let’s talk about climate change.

The wildfires, hurricanes, and floods we’ve seen in 2020 (on top of an already-awful global pandemic) make this an important conversation to have.

Think climate change isn’t an issue? Well, the market consensus is moving in the other direction.

Insurers, government entities, and large investors are treating climate change as a major systemic risk to financial markets.¹

Why? Because many companies and sectors are at risk from the costly heatwaves, wildfires, droughts, floods, and hurricanes that come with a warming planet.²

Do scientists agree on climate change? Yes, the vast majority of actively publishing climate scientists – 97 percent – concur that humans are causing global warming and climate change.

Most of the leading science organizations around the world have issued public statements expressing this, including international and U.S. science academies.³

So, what does climate change mean for investors?

Investors worry that climate risk could cause the prospects of certain companies to drop dramatically and ricochet throughout the financial system (much like what happened during the 2008 financial crisis).

But, unlike a global issue such as the coronavirus, the effects will play out differently around the country and the world.

Flood- or wildfire-prone areas could experience disruptions in business or find it difficult to insure homes and structures against damage.

Agriculture could be damaged by droughts and heat stress.

Already-warm areas could become too hot for comfortable habitation.

But, if the world goes all-in on sustainability too suddenly, there’s also a danger that the “transition risk” caused by new regulations or widespread shifts in energy use could also hurt markets or certain sectors of the economy.⁴

Well, what’s the good news?

There’s always hope. Many of the worst effects of climate change will play out over years and decades, not weeks and months.

There’s time for people, businesses, and governments to adapt. And humans are infinitely adaptable.

And there’s hope that the worst-case scenarios about a hotter world might not come to pass.⁵

I believe that optimism and pessimism can (and often should) co-exist.

I’m pessimistic about the climate path we’re on.

I’m optimistic that we will make the changes needed to get on the right path and steer away from the worst effects of climate change.

As a financial planner and wealth manager, I’m also staying on top of the growing body of risk models and research to help my clients chart a path through an increasingly uncertain world.

Ok, enough about climate change. Here are the distractions I promised.

Here’s a jaguar kitten learning how to swim.

And a four-year-old playing Mozart.

And a livestream of the jellyfish at the Monterey Bay Aquarium (with music!).

Deep breath. We can do this.

What do you think? Are you worried about climate change?

What do you think we should do about it?

Warmly,
Chris

Chris Mullis, Ph.D., CDFA®
Founding Partner

Financial Planning.
Wealth Management.
Since 2006AskNorthStar.com
(704) 350-5028

P.S. Markets have been volatile this month. It’s to be expected with so much uncertainty swirling about. We’ll reach out if I have anything critical to share.

¹_{https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/08/climate/climate-change-financial-markets.html} _{https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/21/climate/investors-climate-threat-regulators.html}

²_{https://www.spglobal.com/en/research-insights/featured/the-big-picture-on-climate-risk}

_{³https://climate.nasa.gov/faq/17/do-scientists-agree-on-climate-change/}

⁴ _{https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/knowledgebank/climate-change-what-are-the-risks-to-financial-stability}

⁵_{https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-worst-climate-scenarios-may-no-longer-be-the-most-likely/}

Frothy? Bubbles?

We’re not writing about cappuccinos, champagne, or bubble bath.

We’re talking stocks.

You may have noticed that the shortest bear market in history is over, and markets recently hit new record highs.

Will stocks keep going higher? Will they stay volatile?

Is another bear market around the corner?

Maybe. Maybe not.

As is pretty common in these situations, market strategists are split.

Some see a new bull market that reflects a recovering economy.¹

Others see troubling signs of a bubble that could burst.²

What could push stocks higher?

A market-ready COVID-19 vaccine or major treatment breakthrough that reignites optimism.
More government stimulus that supports consumers and businesses.
Good economic numbers that suggest we’re on the other side of the recession and the recovery continues.

What warning signs are flashing?

A rally mostly powered by tech mega stocks that isn’t reflected in the broader market.
Uncertainty around a November election that’s already contentious.
A possible “Minsky moment” market collapse fueled by the Fed’s easy money policy and unsustainable stock prices.³
Predictions of a second wave of infection that could provoke more shutdowns.

Bottom line, we can’t predict what comes next in the market and that’s okay. Why? Because it’s all short-term “noise.” History shows that all stock market declines are temporary interruptions in a perennial uptrend.

Since we no one can predict the future and no one can time the market, we’re focused on helping our clients stay fully invested which is the only sure way to capture the entirety of the market’s permanent advance. Those powerful portfolio returns over the long term are the reward for staying calm.

2020 has been the strangest year of our lives (probably yours, too), and it’s foolish to try to time markets right now — or any time for that matter. If you’re thinking about big moves or feeling anxious about what comes next, please reach out. We’ll talk through your ideas or concerns.

¹_{https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/08/goldman-sachs-10-reasons-the-bull-market-has-further-to-run.html}

²_{https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/07/stock-markets-cio-says-tech-bubble-not-expected-to-pop-anytime-soon.html}

³_{https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/03/markets-are-facing-a-potential-minsky-moment-collapse-strategist-says.html}

Could the election tank the market? 3 things you need to know

The 2020 election is around the corner, adding another layer of uncertainty to an already volatile market.

This could be one of the most divisive races we’ve seen. We can’t predict its outcome or what it could mean for the economy.

So how can we keep a level head and make informed decisions amid so much chaos?

We made a quick video discussing three things you need to know to help protect your investments in the face of the unknown.

Video Transcript:

This is the FOURTH presidential election that we’ve navigated in our 15 years of helping our clients reduce taxes, invest smarter, and live better.

And we’re here to help you stay level-headed — even in times of chaos. The 2020 election is coming up fast, and we’ve had worried folks ask us: Will it tank the market?

In this video, we’ll give you three things to keep in mind so you can plan for uncertainty.

2020 has been wild, to say the least. And the upcoming election could be one of the most divisive races we’ve ever seen. Add a pandemic, confusing market trends, and it’s no wonder people are worried.

But let’s trade panic for perspective. Here are three WAYS we can prepare for election uncertainty:

#1 — It’s normal for markets to be more volatile in election years. But remember, other factors are always at play, like business cycles, interest rates, corporate profits — and, of course, unpredictable events like the pandemic. So what can you do? Take a deep breath and focus on the post-election period. If you want, we can help you create a plan to pursue long-term success, no matter who wins in November.

#2 — Markets don’t like uncertainty, and they don’t like surprises. So we can expect things to be a bit bumpy in the short term, especially in the weeks before and after the vote.

#3 — Regardless of who wins, the government will be focusing on the coronavirus and the country’s economic recovery. We don’t know what this will look like or how quickly things will happen. With some preparation now, we can help you create a financial plan that accounts for this uncertainty — and you can be less worried about your portfolio.

Listen, we don’t have a crystal ball. But we do have the advantage of knowing what’s happened in the past, and being able to prepare for what could happen in the future. While the past can’t predict the future, we can look to it for powerful perspective.

If you have questions about how the 2020 election might affect your portfolio or you’d like to talk one-on-one, please reach out.

As always — we thank you for your support, we appreciate your engagmement, and please be well.

3 cognitive biases that cheat most investors (and how to beat them)

“The investor’s chief problem – and even his worst enemy – is likely to be himself.” — Benjamin Graham

If you’re looking at headlines or feeling the pressure of the downturn, it’s easy to think you’re not in control.

And it’s true—you have limited control over external circumstances (like the pandemic). But you have complete control over yourself and your behavior.

Times like these are when it’s most important to dig deep, root out bad habits, and come out on the other side mentally stronger than before.

We made a short video showing you exactly how you can overcome the hardwired biases that can cheat you, including the huge mental trap that even Warren Buffett has to fight.

(You’ll have to watch the video to find out what it is!)

You can watch it here.

WATCH NOW

So what if the market does go down again?

Over the past several weeks, the stock market has experienced both the fastest crash and the most robust bounce ever seen. Right now, while things are relatively calm, I want to underscore the following points that are profoundly important to your investing success.

When stock prices are going down, the enduring value of the underlying companies is going up. A market decline is therefore always to be experienced as a sale, and the very nature of sales is that they are temporary. The lower prices go, the more value is to be had at those prices. You instinctively know this about virtually everything else in your economic life. If you can’t apply that same correct instinct to the stocks of America’s and the world’s great companies, it’s not probable that you can ever become a successful investor.
Staying fully invested during temporary market declines is the only sure way to capture the entirety of the market’s permanent advance. It is not possible consistently to sell out of falling markets, and later buy back into already advancing markets, thereby capturing the long-term returns of equities. Those returns are your reward for staying calm.
You never try to make long-term investment strategy out of short- to intermediate-term disruptions. We have a plan for getting you to the goal you need to reach, in order to secure a successful retirement. To achieve that goal, you need to invest consistently. And to stay invested, not just when the sun is shining.
Perhaps more today than ever, bonds, CDs and the like are not an alternative. At the moment, the cash dividend of the S&P 500 is close to three times the yield on the 10-year Treasury note. Even if dividends were to halve in the current crisis, and interest rates stayed where they are, stocks would still yield more than the 10-year Treasury. I’ve never seen that before, and when this crisis passes, I don’t ever expect to see it again. Bonds are simply not, in my judgment, a rational alternative to stocks for the long-term investor.
How low the stock market ultimately goes in response to the economy’s cardiac arrest is both unknowable and — to the long-term, goal-focused, planning-driven investor — irrelevant. (Unless, of course, he/she is still in accumulation mode, in which case a renewed decline would be a genuine godsend.)

I hope sharing our enduring principles helps both steady you in the present and focuses you on your long-term success. As always, if you have any questions don’t hesitate to give me a call.

When the world goes as haywire as it’s done lately, you may have occasion to question your investment strategy — and even your overall financial planning. If so, you may wish you could get an objective second opinion you can trust, from a friend. I hope you’ll know me to be that friend.

Wishing great success,
Chris

Chris Mullis, Ph.D.
Founding Partner

Financial Planning.
Wealth Management.
Since 2006

AskNorthStar.com
(704) 350-5028

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