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SVB and bank collapses

  • March 14, 2023/
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Is it 2008 all over again? Should we be worried about the financial system collapsing?

Deep breath. Let’s discuss.

On March 10th, Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), a bank catering to startups closed its doors after it could no longer cover withdrawals.1

Days later, regulators also took over Signature Bank.

There’s reason to believe a number of other banks may be in trouble.2 Rising interest rates are hitting many banking portfolios hard and weaknesses are emerging.

Should we be panicked about these bank failures?

No. Here’s why:

The affected banks are small in the context of the overall banking system.

You can see in the chart above how small the two failed banks are relative to other, larger financial institutions.3

They also serve high-risk niches. These banks have a lot of exposure to cryptocurrencies, startups, and other highly volatile asset classes.4

Those risky assets can make them more vulnerable to bank runs and liquidity issues. Which is what we’re seeing happen.

Will more banks collapse?

That’s very possible. Moody’s, a rating agency, reported that it’s watching several other institutions with potential problems.2

Some larger banks may be affected as well, but it looks like regulators are stepping in quickly to protect the overall financial system.

What can we take away from the SVB failure?

We think it’s a good time for one of Warren Buffett’s famous bits of wisdom:

“Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.”

What he means is that adverse conditions expose vulnerabilities and risky choices.

Many strategies can look brilliant when markets are booming. You don’t always know or appreciate the risks until conditions turn against you.

Clearly, a number of institutions are finding that out.

We think there’s a lesson here for us as well:

When times are good, we might not worry too much about our income or our expenses. Or the risks we take in the market.

But when times get tough, we start appreciating the risks we’ve taken and the obligations we’ve taken on.

Understanding our actual tolerance for risk and our ability to withstand rocky times is absolutely critical.

It’s very hard to do when the sun is shining and life is good. But it’s a skill well worth developing because we can expect to experience bear markets, recessions, and uncertain conditions throughout our lives.

 

Sources

  1. https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/13/investing/silicon-valley-bank-collapse-explained/index.html
  2. https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/14/moodys-cuts-outlook-on-us-banking-system-to-negative-citing-rapidly-deteriorating-operating-environment.html
  3. https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/03/13/bank-failure-size-svb-signature/
  4. https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/12/regulators-close-new-yorks-signature-bank-citing-systemic-risk.html

Chart source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/03/13/bank-failure-size-svb-signature/


529 Rollovers (coming soon)

  • February 6, 2023/
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529 accounts are getting a lot more powerful with the recent SECURE Act 2.0 legislation that went into effect on January 1st.

Here’s what you need to know:

Typically, 529 money is dedicated to education expenses like college tuition. Taking money out for other “non-qualified” purposes generally triggers penalties and taxes.

Meaning that if your kid didn’t go to a qualified K-12 or college or didn’t use up the funds because they received a scholarship, you didn’t have a lot of choices for the money in the account that didn’t come with penalties.

Sure, you could change the beneficiary so the money went to pay for another child’s education, but that was about it.

Here’s some good news:1

Starting in 2024, 529 funds that don’t get used for education will be able to roll over to the beneficiary’s Roth IRA, free of taxes and penalties.

But — and there’s usually a but — there are some caveats and limitations we need to keep in mind:

  • Rollovers will count as contributions and can’t exceed the annual IRA contribution limit ($6,500 in 2023)
  • Rollovers can only be made to the beneficiary’s Roth IRA (i.e. the child’s) and not the account owner’s
  • The 529 account must have been open for at least 15 years (and possibly be in the same beneficiary’s name for that period)
  • You can’t roll over contributions (or their earnings) made in the last five years
  • There’s a $35,000 lifetime cap on rollovers

Are 529 rollovers a big deal?

I think so. Simply because it opens the door to doing much more with your child’s education savings than simply paying for college.

Imagine the boost you could give your child’s retirement over their lifetime.

Imagine your child graduates college with funds still in their 529 account. So you roll the remainder to a Roth IRA in their name. Because you know that investing early in life is the best way to put time on their side. The money grows for the next 45 years, tax-free.

They could kick off their retirement with a sizable tax-free nest egg. All courtesy of you and your forethought.

Imagine the gift you could be giving your children (and grandchildren) by giving them such a head start.

What can you do with this information now?

If you have children and haven’t opened a 529 account, go ahead and establish one now, even if it’s for just a few bucks to get that 15-year clock started.

Scholastically,
Dr. Chris


SECURE Act 2.0 (2023 changes inside)

  • January 5, 2023/
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After months of debate, Congress finally passed some major changes to retirement laws at the end of 2022.1

The Setting Every Community Up for Retirement Enhancement (SECURE) Act 2.0 changes are numerous, complex, and will roll out over several years.

So let’s focus for now on some changes for 2023:2

1. The age at which required minimum distributions (RMDs) begin increased to 73 in 2023. This change impacts folks born between 1951 and 1959.

2. The penalty for missing all or part of an RMD decreased to 25% in 2023. However, if you correct the past-due RMD and pay taxes on it within two years, the penalty drops to 10%.3

3. Qualified Charitable Distributions have a few more options. Starting in 2023, folks who are aged 70½ or older can gift a one-time amount of $50,000 (adjusted for annual inflation) to a charitable remainder unitrust (CRUT), charitable remainder annuity trust (CRAT), or charitable gift annuity (CGA).4

4. Roth savings get a boost. Starting in 2023, employers can offer workers the choice to receive vested matching contributions directly to their Roth account, where they’ll grow tax-free.2 Also, Roth contributions to SIMPLE and SEP IRAs are authorized in 2023.5 However, we’ll have to wait for the IRS and custodians to work out procedures before folks can take advantage of these new opportunities.

5. More folks can take early distributions from their retirement accounts without penalty. Starting in 2023, victims of disasters and folks who are terminally ill will be able to access their retirement accounts early without incurring a 10% penalty.6 There’s plenty of fine print, so let’s have a conversation if you think you might be eligible.

Bottom line: There’s A LOT to unpack in the new laws. Many new rules, including changes to catch-up contributions and 529 plans, will roll out in 2024 and 2025.

As we’ve learned with previous new regulations, Congress might enact new laws, but we often have to wait for the IRS and other agencies to catch up before we can fully make use of them.

Stay tuned for more updates as the new rules shake out.

 

Sources:

1. https://www.plansponsor.com/official-secure-2-0-law/

2. https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/personal-finance/secure-act-2

3. https://www.kiplinger.com/retirement/new-rmd-rules

4. https://www.fidelitycharitable.org/articles/secure-act-2-0-retirement-provisions.html

5. https://tickertape.tdameritrade.com/retirement/secure-act-2-0-now-law-how-it-s-likely-to-change-your-retirement-planning–19304

6. https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/secure-2-0-changes-rules-for-retirement-9979502/


That 70s economy

  • May 16, 2022/
  • Posted By : admin/
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  • Under : Economy, Uncategorised

Markets gifted us with another burst of volatility and headlines are looking apocalyptic again.

Some folks might think it’s time to bail on markets for the summer, but I’ll tell you why that thinking is a mistake.

First, let’s peel back some layers to explore what’s driving markets.

The latest selloff was largely driven by concerns about how the pace of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes could affect economic growth.1

The Fed’s “hawkish” policy of rapidly raising interest rates to bring down inflation seems likely to take a chunk out of economic growth.

Is a recession or bear market on the way?

Those are risks we are prepared for.

While the Fed could manage to execute a “soft landing” and successfully lower inflation without triggering a downturn, its track record isn’t so good.

According to Schwab, 10 out of the last 13 rate-hike cycles resulted in a recession.2

Those aren’t odds I’d want to take to Vegas.

However, we are holding a couple of strong cards: a red-hot jobs market and steady consumer spending.3,4

Could those bright spots fend off a recession or downturn?

Very possibly. We’ll have to wait and see.

Are the 70s back?

No, I’m not talking about bell bottoms and platform shoes.

I’m talking about “stagflation.”

What does that even mean?

Stagflation is a buzzword combining “stagnation” and “inflation” and signifies an economy plagued by low economic growth, high inflation, and high unemployment.5

We saw it in this country in the 1970s during an oil crisis.

It’s hard to say if it’s going to happen again. It’s definitely a risk we (and the world’s economists) are watching.

However, there are two points that count against a vintage 70s stagflation scenario: 1) that strong jobs market and 2) inflation that might already be peaking.6

So, let’s not panic.

Here’s the bottom line (and you’ve probably heard me say it a hundred times): Market downturns, recessions, and volatility happen regularly.

We expect them.

We plan for them.

We remember that they don’t last forever.

We stay nimble and look for opportunities.

Though it looks like we’re in for a rocky summer, that doesn’t mean it’s time to hit the eject button.

Instead, we make careful shifts, especially in a rising interest rate environment.

The weeks ahead are very likely to be volatile. I’m here, I’m watching, and I’ll be in touch as needed.

Reassuringly,

Dr. Chris Mullis, CFP®, CDFA®

 

P.S. Need a jolt of good energy? Check out the Monterey Bay Aquarium’s Sea Otter Cam. If you’re lucky, you might catch a live feeding.

1 – https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/05/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

2 – https://www.schwab.com/resource-center/insights/content/when-levee-breaks-panic-is-not-strategy

3 – https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/01/inflation-forces-consumers-to-rethink-spending-habits.html

4 – https://www.npr.org/2022/05/06/1096863449/the-us-jobs-market-continues-its-strong-comeback-from-the-pandemic

5 – https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/economics/stagflation/

6 – https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/01/investing/stocks-week-ahead/index.html


What Buffett Wouldn’t Do and You Shouldn’t Either

  • June 28, 2018/
  • Posted By : admin/
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  • Under : Seeking Prudent Advice, Uncategorised

Warren Buffett

People often look to Warren Buffett, one of the greatest investors of all time, for guidance what to do.  But what about the opposite?  The Oracle of Omaha has a great list of “no-goes” enumerated in this Bloomberg article:

Investing:

  • Don’t be too fixated on daily moves in the stock market (from Berkshire letter published in 2014)
  • Don’t get excited about your investment gains when the market is climbing (1996)
  • Don’t be distracted by macroeconomic forecasts (2004)
  • Don’t limit yourself to just one industry (2008)
  • Don’t get taken by formulas (2009)
  • Don’t be short on cash when you need it most (2010)
  • Don’t wager against the U.S. and its economic potential (2015)

Management:

  • Don’t beat yourself up over wrong decisions; take responsibility for them (2001)
  • Don’t have mandatory retirement ages (1992)
  • “Don’t ask the barber whether you need a haircut” because the answer will be what’s best for the man with the scissors (1983)
  • Don’t dawdle (2006)
  • Don’t interfere with great managers (1994)
  • Don’t succumb to the attitudes that undermine businesses (2015)
  • Don’t be greedy about compensation, if you’re my successor (2015)

Source: Bloomberg


The Retirement Pyramid

  • May 25, 2018/
  • Posted By : admin/
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Riffing off the widely-seen-but-rarely-followed food pyramid, advisor Tony Isola created the retirement pyramid.  Remember how this works — you want to  do a lot of the stuff at the bottom of the pyramid and very little to none of the high-level stuff.  Follow this guide to be wealthier and healthier!


Turkey Hovers at $50

  • November 23, 2016/
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turkey2016-1000wThis year’s turkey dinner will cost you 24 cents less or -0.5% compared to last year. The average cost of a classic Thanksgiving Dinner for 10 people is $49.87 according to the American Farm Bureau Federation’s survey. The relative price stability of the turkey index mirrors the government’s Consumer Price Index for food eaten at home which decreased 2% over the past year.

The bird soaks up the lion’s share of the budget at 46% of the meal’s cost. The 16-pound turkey came in at $22.74 this year or $1.42 per pound. The price of most ingredients was quite stable compared to last year. Biggest losers: turkey down $0.30 (-1.3%) and miscellaneous ingredients down $0.37 (-11.6%).  Biggest gainers: pie shells up $0.12 (4.9%) and rolls up $0.21 (9.3%).

The average cost of a turkey dinner has hovered around $50 since 2011.

Happy Thanksgiving!

turkey2016-table2
Source: AFBF


25 Important Documents You’ll Need Before You Die

  • October 13, 2016/
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  • Under : Uncategorised

death-dossierDesign your “Death Dossier” soon or you could be setting up your heirs for frustration and financial pain:

25 Important Documents You’ll Need Before You Die

The Essentials
• Will
• Letter of instruction
• Trust documents
Proof of Ownership
• Housing, land and cemetery deeds
• Escrow mortgage accounts
• Proof of loans made and debts owed
• Vehicle titles
• Stock certificates, savings bonds and brokerage accounts
• Partnership and corporate operating agreements
• Tax returns
Bank Accounts
• List of bank accounts
• List of all user names and passwords
• List of safe-deposit boxes
Health-Care Confidential
• Personal and family medical history
• Durable health-care power of attorney
• Authorization to release health-care information
• Living will
• Do-not-resuscitate order
Life Insurance and Retirement
• Life-insurance policies
• Individual retirement accounts
• 401(k) accounts
• Pension documents
• Annuity contracts
Marriage and Divorce
• Marriage license
• Divorce papers

Learn more in this article


Got retirement plans? Your spouse may disagree

  • October 6, 2016/
  • Posted By : admin/
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  • Under : Uncategorised

couple

A recent survey by Fidelity shows that wives and husbands don’t share retirement-planning duties nor agree on the plan:

  • Only 41% of couples surveyed handle retirement investment decisions together.
  • Only 17% of couples say either spouse is prepared to assume sole responsibility of their retirement finances.
  • Although women are more likely to outlive their husbands, only 35% of wives say they are completely confident in their ability to take over the finances. 72% of husbands feel they can.
  • 33% of couples say they don’t agree or don’t know where they plan to retire.
  • 62% of couples nearing retirement don’t agree on the age at which to stop working
  • 47% of couples nearing retirement don’t agree on whether they will continue to work in retirement.

Here’s what you should do and know:

  • Both husbands and wives should know where critical documents are kept
  • Both need to know what to do if their spouse is no longer able to assist with financial decision-making
  • Both should have an understanding of the family’s finances, savings, and investment goals.
  • Both should become active in financial planning and meeting with the family’s financial and investment advisors.
  • Both husbands and wives should talk about retirement and finances more often together for better agreement and mutual understanding.

Basket of Financial Deplorables

  • September 29, 2016/
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  • Under : Uncategorised

basketIt’s hard to not to riff on something political in the same week of that presidential candidates Hilary Clinton and Donald Trump squared off for their first debate.  That’s exactly what Tony Isola did when he offered up his “financial products” version of Hilary Clinton’s uncomplimentary description of her opponent’s supporters (“basket of deplorables”).

Here is Tony’s list of products that are toxic to the retirement savings of our people and institutions:

  1. Equity-Indexed Annuities – How about an investment with limited upside but large potential for a substantial loss? Throw in a 10% sales charge and no dividend participation (50% of historic market returns) and we have the ingredients for a deplorable retirement scenario.
  2. Funds with 12b-1 Fees – Fund size and investment returns are negatively correlated. Investors are paying a fee to brokers designed to increase assets and reduce returns. Kind of like paying a restaurant to give you food poisoning!
  3. Proprietary Mutual Funds – This is cross selling at its most heinous. Never buy a mutual fund created by a broker’s employer- this is the ultimate perverse incentive.
  4. Non-Traded REITs – A false promise of safety combined with 10% upfront commissions, this is a true sucker’s bet. Just because something is not traded doesn’t mean it cannot go down in value. By the way, their publicly traded cousins have vastly outperformed this group over time, because of greater transparency and lower fees.
  5. Commodity Funds – High risk combined with low returns rarely ends well. These products specialize in something called ”Contango.” Investor translation: Nearer dated futures’ prices are lower than the longer dated ones, or more commonly known as buy high and sell low, rinse and repeat.
  6. Variable Annuities – These are often sold on the pretense of guaranteed income and tax-deferred growth. In reality, very few investors need this product fraught with complexity and egregious fees. These are often placed inappropriately in tax-sheltered accounts; investors do not need both a belt and suspenders.
  7. Front-Loaded Mutual Funds – Investors pay a premium of 5.75%, and an additional 1% a year in fund fees to purchase an investment that is almost guaranteed to underperform an unmanaged index fund costing .05%, annually. There is NEVER a reason to pay this fee.
  8. Over-Niched ETFs – Healthcare Shares Dermatology and Wound Care ETF and Pure Drone Economy Strategy funds are all that needs to be said. The prosecution rests its case.
  9. Hedge Funds – 2% annual fees combined with 20% of yearly profit makes it pretty hard for investors to bring home any type of meaningful positive returns. While there is a small minority of hedge funds that are worth the steep price, they are either closed or have account minimums that rule out everyone except for the Bill Gates’ crowd.
  10. Market Linked C.D.s – The ultimate vanilla investment has been hijacked by Wall Street. Unless you enjoy paying a 3% commission and having the possibility of losing principal due to early withdrawal, run away from anyone who approaches you with this nonsense. Purchasing a complicated structure that will underperform your Credit Union’s basic offering is a deplorable choice.

Vote for transparency, low fees, and an investment advisor who will look out for your best interests!

source: Tony Isola


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Recent Posts
  • SVB and bank collapses March 14,2023
  • 529 Rollovers (coming soon) February 6,2023
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FROM OUR BLOG
  • SVB and bank collapses March 14,2023
  • 529 Rollovers (coming soon) February 6,2023
  • SECURE Act 2.0 (2023 changes inside) January 5,2023
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