Is it 2008 all over again? Should we be worried about the financial system collapsing?

Deep breath. Let’s discuss.

On March 10th, Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), a bank catering to startups closed its doors after it could no longer cover withdrawals.¹

Days later, regulators also took over Signature Bank.

There’s reason to believe a number of other banks may be in trouble.² Rising interest rates are hitting many banking portfolios hard and weaknesses are emerging.

Should we be panicked about these bank failures?

No. Here’s why:

The affected banks are small in the context of the overall banking system.

You can see in the chart above how small the two failed banks are relative to other, larger financial institutions.³

They also serve high-risk niches. These banks have a lot of exposure to cryptocurrencies, startups, and other highly volatile asset classes.⁴

Those risky assets can make them more vulnerable to bank runs and liquidity issues. Which is what we’re seeing happen.

Will more banks collapse?

That’s very possible. Moody’s, a rating agency, reported that it’s watching several other institutions with potential problems.²

Some larger banks may be affected as well, but it looks like regulators are stepping in quickly to protect the overall financial system.

What can we take away from the SVB failure?

We think it’s a good time for one of Warren Buffett’s famous bits of wisdom:

“Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.”

What he means is that adverse conditions expose vulnerabilities and risky choices.

Many strategies can look brilliant when markets are booming. You don’t always know or appreciate the risks until conditions turn against you.

Clearly, a number of institutions are finding that out.

We think there’s a lesson here for us as well:

When times are good, we might not worry too much about our income or our expenses. Or the risks we take in the market.

But when times get tough, we start appreciating the risks we’ve taken and the obligations we’ve taken on.

Understanding our actual tolerance for risk and our ability to withstand rocky times is absolutely critical.

It’s very hard to do when the sun is shining and life is good. But it’s a skill well worth developing because we can expect to experience bear markets, recessions, and uncertain conditions throughout our lives.

Sources

1. https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/13/investing/silicon-valley-bank-collapse-explained/index.html
2. https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/14/moodys-cuts-outlook-on-us-banking-system-to-negative-citing-rapidly-deteriorating-operating-environment.html
3. https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/03/13/bank-failure-size-svb-signature/
4. https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/12/regulators-close-new-yorks-signature-bank-citing-systemic-risk.html

Chart source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/03/13/bank-failure-size-svb-signature/

529 accounts are getting a lot more powerful with the recent SECURE Act 2.0 legislation that went into effect on January 1st.

Here’s what you need to know:

Typically, 529 money is dedicated to education expenses like college tuition. Taking money out for other “non-qualified” purposes generally triggers penalties and taxes.

Meaning that if your kid didn’t go to a qualified K-12 or college or didn’t use up the funds because they received a scholarship, you didn’t have a lot of choices for the money in the account that didn’t come with penalties.

Sure, you could change the beneficiary so the money went to pay for another child’s education, but that was about it.

Here’s some good news:¹

Starting in 2024, 529 funds that don’t get used for education will be able to roll over to the beneficiary’s Roth IRA, free of taxes and penalties.

But — and there’s usually a but — there are some caveats and limitations we need to keep in mind:

• Rollovers will count as contributions and can’t exceed the annual IRA contribution limit ($6,500 in 2023)
• Rollovers can only be made to the beneficiary’s Roth IRA (i.e. the child’s) and not the account owner’s
• The 529 account must have been open for at least 15 years (and possibly be in the same beneficiary’s name for that period)
• You can’t roll over contributions (or their earnings) made in the last five years
• There’s a $35,000 lifetime cap on rollovers

Are 529 rollovers a big deal?

I think so. Simply because it opens the door to doing much more with your child’s education savings than simply paying for college.

Imagine the boost you could give your child’s retirement over their lifetime.

Imagine your child graduates college with funds still in their 529 account. So you roll the remainder to a Roth IRA in their name. Because you know that investing early in life is the best way to put time on their side. The money grows for the next 45 years, tax-free.

They could kick off their retirement with a sizable tax-free nest egg. All courtesy of you and your forethought.

Imagine the gift you could be giving your children (and grandchildren) by giving them such a head start.

What can you do with this information now?

If you have children and haven’t opened a 529 account, go ahead and establish one now, even if it’s for just a few bucks to get that 15-year clock started.

Scholastically,
Dr. Chris

After months of debate, Congress finally passed some major changes to retirement laws at the end of 2022.¹

The Setting Every Community Up for Retirement Enhancement (SECURE) Act 2.0 changes are numerous, complex, and will roll out over several years.

So let’s focus for now on some changes for 2023:²

1. The age at which required minimum distributions (RMDs) begin increased to 73 in 2023. This change impacts folks born between 1951 and 1959.

2. The penalty for missing all or part of an RMD decreased to 25% in 2023. However, if you correct the past-due RMD and pay taxes on it within two years, the penalty drops to 10%.³

3. Qualified Charitable Distributions have a few more options. Starting in 2023, folks who are aged 70½ or older can gift a one-time amount of $50,000 (adjusted for annual inflation) to a charitable remainder unitrust (CRUT), charitable remainder annuity trust (CRAT), or charitable gift annuity (CGA).⁴

4. Roth savings get a boost. Starting in 2023, employers can offer workers the choice to receive vested matching contributions directly to their Roth account, where they’ll grow tax-free.² Also, Roth contributions to SIMPLE and SEP IRAs are authorized in 2023.⁵ However, we’ll have to wait for the IRS and custodians to work out procedures before folks can take advantage of these new opportunities.

5. More folks can take early distributions from their retirement accounts without penalty. Starting in 2023, victims of disasters and folks who are terminally ill will be able to access their retirement accounts early without incurring a 10% penalty.⁶ There’s plenty of fine print, so let’s have a conversation if you think you might be eligible.

Bottom line: There’s A LOT to unpack in the new laws. Many new rules, including changes to catch-up contributions and 529 plans, will roll out in 2024 and 2025.

As we’ve learned with previous new regulations, Congress might enact new laws, but we often have to wait for the IRS and other agencies to catch up before we can fully make use of them.

Stay tuned for more updates as the new rules shake out.

Sources:

1. https://www.plansponsor.com/official-secure-2-0-law/

2. https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/personal-finance/secure-act-2

3. https://www.kiplinger.com/retirement/new-rmd-rules

4. https://www.fidelitycharitable.org/articles/secure-act-2-0-retirement-provisions.html

5. https://tickertape.tdameritrade.com/retirement/secure-act-2-0-now-law-how-it-s-likely-to-change-your-retirement-planning–19304

6. https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/secure-2-0-changes-rules-for-retirement-9979502/

Riffing off the widely-seen-but-rarely-followed food pyramid, advisor Tony Isola created the retirement pyramid.  Remember how this works — you want to  do a lot of the stuff at the bottom of the pyramid and very little to none of the high-level stuff.  Follow this guide to be wealthier and healthier!