Good stuff in 2020?

It’s been a long journey to reach this election day and, if you’re like me, you’re plenty tired of the relentless politicking.

Case counts are rising around the country and winter is coming (34F overnight here in the Queen City of Charlotte).

A stimulus deal to help the folks who are scraping by seems stalled.

Markets are down (and up and down).

It’s hard to feel positive some days.

I’ve been noodling with a question I’d like to ask you.

When we take a look at 2020, it’s easy to see it as a long string of disasters, one after another.

And the last year has exacted a terrible cost. In lives cut short and dreams shattered.

But what if we look for the good stuff that happened as well?

Sometimes, it’s hard to remember the good things because they slip in quietly and often go unnoticed.

While the bad news announces itself loudly, instantly, and overwhelmingly.

What if we paused to ask: what good has come to my life because of this year?

I’ll start.

I’m grateful for the additional time spent with my wife Rita and our children. It’s so easy to get caught up in the shuffle of work, school, activities, travel, and everything else. I’m glad we had the opportunity to slow down and make each other our refuge.

I developed a new appreciation for my neighbors in SouthPark. We were all thrown together during lockdown and I’m grateful for the opportunity to have gotten to know them better (especially John in the house across the street who generously introduced me to the joys of mechanized leaf removal).

I reconnected with old astronomy and physics major friends from the University of Virginia over Zoom. We’d drifted apart over the years and I’m glad we could catch up.

I think our grand experiment in remote work is going to yield big benefits to our society.

What good things came about in your life?

Will you share them with me (chrismullis@nstarcapital.com)? I’d love to know. Hearing good news helps us all stay positive and moving forward.

Warmly,
Chris

Chris Mullis, Ph.D., CDFA®
Founding Partner
Financial Planning.
Wealth Management.
Since 2006AskNorthStar.com
(704) 350-5028
Climate risk (+ baby jaguar)
Need some distractions from your day? Scroll down to the bottom of this article. There’s a baby jaguar.

But first, let’s talk about climate change.

The wildfires, hurricanes, and floods we’ve seen in 2020 (on top of an already-awful global pandemic) make this an important conversation to have.

Think climate change isn’t an issue? Well, the market consensus is moving in the other direction.

Insurers, government entities, and large investors are treating climate change as a major systemic risk to financial markets.1

Why? Because many companies and sectors are at risk from the costly heatwaves, wildfires, droughts, floods, and hurricanes that come with a warming planet.2

Do scientists agree on climate change? Yes, the vast majority of actively publishing climate scientists – 97 percent – concur that humans are causing global warming and climate change.

Most of the leading science organizations around the world have issued public statements expressing this, including international and U.S. science academies.3

So, what does climate change mean for investors?

Investors worry that climate risk could cause the prospects of certain companies to drop dramatically and ricochet throughout the financial system (much like what happened during the 2008 financial crisis).

But, unlike a global issue such as the coronavirus, the effects will play out differently around the country and the world.

Flood- or wildfire-prone areas could experience disruptions in business or find it difficult to insure homes and structures against damage.

Agriculture could be damaged by droughts and heat stress.

Already-warm areas could become too hot for comfortable habitation.

But, if the world goes all-in on sustainability too suddenly, there’s also a danger that the “transition risk” caused by new regulations or widespread shifts in energy use could also hurt markets or certain sectors of the economy.4

Well, what’s the good news?

There’s always hope. Many of the worst effects of climate change will play out over years and decades, not weeks and months.

There’s time for people, businesses, and governments to adapt. And humans are infinitely adaptable.

And there’s hope that the worst-case scenarios about a hotter world might not come to pass.5

I believe that optimism and pessimism can (and often should) co-exist.

I’m pessimistic about the climate path we’re on.

I’m optimistic that we will make the changes needed to get on the right path and steer away from the worst effects of climate change.

As a financial planner and wealth manager, I’m also staying on top of the growing body of risk models and research to help my clients chart a path through an increasingly uncertain world.

Ok, enough about climate change. Here are the distractions I promised.

Here’s a jaguar kitten learning how to swim.

And a four-year-old playing Mozart.

And a livestream of the jellyfish at the Monterey Bay Aquarium (with music!).

Deep breath. We can do this.

What do you think? Are you worried about climate change?

What do you think we should do about it?

Warmly,
Chris

Chris Mullis, Ph.D., CDFA®
Founding Partner
Financial Planning.
Wealth Management.
Since 2006AskNorthStar.com
(704) 350-5028

P.S. Markets have been volatile this month. It’s to be expected with so much uncertainty swirling about. We’ll reach out if I have anything critical to share.

1https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/08/climate/climate-change-financial-markets.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/21/climate/investors-climate-threat-regulators.html

2https://www.spglobal.com/en/research-insights/featured/the-big-picture-on-climate-risk

3https://climate.nasa.gov/faq/17/do-scientists-agree-on-climate-change/

4 https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/knowledgebank/climate-change-what-are-the-risks-to-financial-stability

5https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-worst-climate-scenarios-may-no-longer-be-the-most-likely/
Frothy? Bubbles?

 

We’re not writing about cappuccinos, champagne, or bubble bath.

We’re talking stocks.

You may have noticed that the shortest bear market in history is over, and markets recently hit new record highs.

Will stocks keep going higher? Will they stay volatile?

Is another bear market around the corner?

Maybe. Maybe not.

As is pretty common in these situations, market strategists are split.

Some see a new bull market that reflects a recovering economy.1

Others see troubling signs of a bubble that could burst.2

What could push stocks higher?

  • A market-ready COVID-19 vaccine or major treatment breakthrough that reignites optimism.
  • More government stimulus that supports consumers and businesses.
  • Good economic numbers that suggest we’re on the other side of the recession and the recovery continues.

What warning signs are flashing?

  • A rally mostly powered by tech mega stocks that isn’t reflected in the broader market.
  • Uncertainty around a November election that’s already contentious.
  • A possible “Minsky moment” market collapse fueled by the Fed’s easy money policy and unsustainable stock prices.3
  • Predictions of a second wave of infection that could provoke more shutdowns.

Bottom line, we can’t predict what comes next in the market and that’s okay.  Why? Because it’s all short-term “noise.”  History shows that all stock market declines are temporary interruptions in a perennial uptrend.

Since we no one can predict the future and no one can time the market, we’re focused on helping our clients stay fully invested which is the only sure way to capture the entirety of the market’s permanent advance.   Those powerful portfolio returns over the long term are the reward for staying calm.

2020 has been the strangest year of our lives (probably yours, too), and it’s foolish to try to time markets right now — or any time for that matter. If you’re thinking about big moves or feeling anxious about what comes next, please reach out. We’ll talk through your ideas or concerns.

1https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/08/goldman-sachs-10-reasons-the-bull-market-has-further-to-run.html

2https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/07/stock-markets-cio-says-tech-bubble-not-expected-to-pop-anytime-soon.html

3https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/03/markets-are-facing-a-potential-minsky-moment-collapse-strategist-says.html

7 Reasons Life Is Actually the Best It’s Ever Been

If you could be alive at any time in history, when would it be? Would you choose to live right now? Objectively, things aren’t easy for most of us right now. We’re facing social, economic, health, and environmental crises. With all the chaos of today, it can be tempting to lean on nostalgia and believe previous generations had it better or easier. And it can make us long for what seem like simpler times.

We may be too focused on the details to see the big picture. With a look at how far we’ve come, we can more clearly see how good we have it and how things, in many ways, really are getting better.

Consider these seven reasons life is actually the best it’s ever been.

#1 Life Expectancy

We’re living long than people have ever lived before.  Worldwide, more than 3 in every 4 people live to be at least 65 years old.  In the US, life expectancies for men and women have increased by more than 10 years since 1950.  That’s 10 more years the generations before us didn’t have to enjoy retirement, spend time with family, and take in more of the life’s wonders.

#2 Health Care & Medicine

Progress in medicine and health care is one of the reasons we’re living longer than ever. In fact, since 1980, MRIs have been invented, smallpox was eradicated, artificial hearts were developed, and the human genome was sequenced. These and other advancements have done more than just extend the length of people’s lives. They’ve also compressed end-of-life decline, meaning people live better lives longer.

#3 Poverty & Income

Globally, poverty rates have dropped by more than 50% since 2000. In the U.S., 8.4 million people have risen out of poverty since 2014. Also promising, average earnings in the U.S. have increased nearly 20-fold since the 1950s. Adjusting for inflation, some experts say wages have grown by at least 35%, increasing Americans’ purchasing power today when compared to 70 years ago.

#4 Technology

Technological advancements have changed so much of how we live and navigate the world. Since 1950 alone, new technology has brought us credit cards, artificial intelligence, the internet, electric cars, cellphones, and GPS technology. These and other innovations have made our lives easier, safer, and better. In fact, while new tech can save time and reduce effort, it can also help save lives.

#5 Crime

Despite the headlines, over the last 25 years, crime has dropped dramatically in the U.S. Violent crime, like assault, robbery, and homicide, has fallen by more than 51% since 1993. Over the same period, property crime, like theft and fraud, has followed the same trend, dropping by more than 54%.

#6 Working Conditions

Labor conditions and laws have come a long way since the early 1900s, creating safer environments with better protections for workers. From safety regulations and wage laws to discrimination and child labor laws, U.S. workers are better protected than ever. Beyond safety, workplaces are also more diverse than ever before. In fact, the U.S. workforce has seen a surge of older workers, minorities, and women over the past 25 years.

#8 Quality of Life

Quality of life has improved sharply over the last 100 years, with astounding improvements in living standards across all socio-economic divides. In fact, the average standard of living in the U.S. today would have been envied by even the greatest rulers two centuries ago.

By most standards, we’re living longer, happier, better lives than our great-great-grandparents did.

 

Is the sky really falling?

I’m sure you saw the headlines:

“Record Economic Plunge”1

“Second-Quarter GDP Plunged by Worst-Ever 32.9%”2

“U.S. Economy Contracted at Record Rate Last Quarter”3

It sure sounds like the sky is falling.

Is it really? Let’s take a step back and put the news in perspective.

The coronavirus shutdown thumped the economy, businesses, and workers badly over the last two quarters, and it’s uncertain how quickly we’ll recover.

We knew that Q2 GDP numbers (Gross Domestic Product) were going to be horrible. In fact, in May, the Federal Reserve thought they were going to be even worse.4

So, ~33% down is actually better than expected.

But, despite the headline, we didn’t actually “lose” 33% of economic production last quarter. The Commerce Department reports data on an “annualized” basis to make it easier to compare; so, if you looked at it quarter-over-quarter, the economy lost 9.5% since Q1.5

That’s still an eye-watering blow to the economy, but it’s not an apocalypse.

The largest contributing factor to the economic losses was a steep drop in personal spending, particularly on services, which makes complete sense in a shutdown.6

Three points before we move on:

  1. This is an advance estimate for Q2, and we will see revisions as more data are finalized.
  2. Though this is the sharpest drop in the shortest time in history, it was caused by the shutdown, and we’re already climbing out of it.
  3. 63.8% of economists think Q3 is when we’ll see the recovery really pick up steam, and the current forecast is for 15.2% annualized growth this quarter.7

So, what’s up with markets?

I think markets are being driven by a few big trends.

In a previous note, I mentioned what a Nobel-laureate economist calls “FOMO mania” by investors who fear missing out on the bounce. I think that’s still in effect as investors continue to pile into stocks, especially in the tech sector.8

I also think the market is being supported by massive government spending and Federal Reserve intervention.

And thirdly, I think a lot of traders are betting heavily on the recovery. If states have to shut down again, the collective delusion may collapse and trigger a correction. We’re watching for that.

How long will the rally last? That’s anyone’s guess. I’ve seen many cheerful forecasts predicting new all-time-highs. I’ve also seen plenty dolefully predicting the next crash.

With so much unknown, they’re all guesses. Even in less-murky circumstances, the market gurus are only accurate about 47% of the time.9

So, since we can’t predict what’s going to happen in Q3 and Q4, we’re staying agile and focusing on the fundamentals of good planning.

I know, it’s a really boring answer. But that’s how we give ourselves the best opportunity for success in chaotic times.

Let’s talk about you.

How are you doing?

What kind of decisions are you making right now?

Can I help? Shoot me an email at chrismullis@nstarcapital.com and let me know.

Warmly,
Chris

Chris Mullis, Ph.D., CDFA®
Founding Partner
Financial Planning.
Wealth Management.
Since 2006

AskNorthStar.com
(704) 350-5028

1https://www.chicagotribune.com/business/ct-biz-us-economic-plunge-20200730-t25tj4pzdvcmrirdufstpla2nm-story.html

2https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/30/us-gdp-q2-2020-first-reading.html

3https://www.wsj.com/articles/us-economy-gdp-report-second-quarter-coronavirus-11596061406

4https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/nowcast

5https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/07/30/did-third-economy-really-vanish-just-three-months/

6https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/30/us-gdp-q2-2020-first-reading.html

7https://www.wsj.com/graphics/econsurvey/

8https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/28/paul-krugman-sees-mania-by-stocks-investors-driven-by-fomo.html

9https://www.cxoadvisory.com/gurus/#aggregate

10https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/30/apple-just-announced-a-stock-split-heres-what-that-means-for-investors.html

Are We Still in a Recession + Some Good News

 

So, what’s going on with the economy?

Well, hopes for the “V-Shaped” recovery economists wanted seem to be fading.1  Though businesses reopened and millions of people got their jobs back, millions more are still unemployed.2 And more layoffs are likely coming.3

Does that mean we’re still in a recession?

Technically, we won’t know until Q2 and Q3 economic data are released.

Best guess? We’re probably still in a recession.

The more optimistic recovery scenarios depended on containing COVID-19 infections so Americans could safely get back to business.

That…didn’t happen.

The question now is whether rising infection rates will put us in a “W-Shaped” double-dip recession, or a slower “L-Shaped” or “Swoosh-Shaped” climb back.

That’s all very interesting, but how does it affect us in Charlotte?

In many ways, our local economy is a microcosm of the larger state of affairs.

As COVID-19 cases have drifted back higher in the Queen City and North Carolina, we’ve still got a ways to go before we’re on solid ground.

Our ability to bounce back depends on a few things: 1) keeping infection rates down; 2) workers keeping the jobs they have and returning to the ones they lost; 3) folks shopping, eating out, and spending money locally.

In terms of markets, the recent gains make it clear that investors are looking past the current gloom to a hopefully rosy future.

Are they clairvoyant? Foolishly optimistic? Not optimistic enough?

I agree with Yale economist Dr. Robert Shiller’s take: he thinks this is a FOMO market driven by the Fear Of Missing Out.

Many investors regret not participating in the 2009 rally and are determined not to miss out again. That psychological narrative is pushing up the market even in the face of bad news.4

Will it continue?

We’re in earnings season and investors are waiting to see how badly U.S. companies were damaged last quarter.

Since many companies have refused to release earnings forecasts, we’re prepared for surprises. Positive and negative.

Bottom line: Buckle up, I think we’re in for a choppy ride.

Ok, so where’s the good news you promised? 

When times are tough and headlines are overwhelmingly negative, it becomes harder to find the good news. But it’s there:

  • A New Jersey hospital once described as a “war zone” now has zero COVID-19 patients.5
  • 17 COVID-19 vaccines are in human trials. At least one may be ready for approval by the end of 2020.6
  • 2 million folks gathered to plant trees in Northern India (while maintaining social distance).7
  • A young man who lost hope of attending college is headed to Harvard Law after the good people he met as a sanitation worker took him under their wings.8

Uplifting stories are out there if we look for them.

 

1https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/07/11/after-fastest-recession-us-history-economic-recovery-may-be-fizzling/

2https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-tell-us-30-million-people-are-unemployed-but-many-doubt-its-that-bad-2020-07-08

3https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-layoffs-furloughs-hospitality-service-travel-unemployment-2020

4https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/understanding-us-pandemic-stock-market-by-robert-j-shiller-2020-07

5https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020/07/once-called-a-war-zone-this-nj-hospital-now-has-zero-coronavirus-patients.html

6https://www.wsj.com/articles/german-biotech-sees-its-coronavirus-vaccine-ready-for-approval-by-december-11594373400

7https://apnews.com/f1d41fd4772742279da89e972dd8493d

8https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/07/us/sanitation-worker-harvard-law-trnd/index.html

Midyear Outlook (important read)

Dear Clients & Friends,

The first six months of 2020 saw the advent of the worst global public health crisis in a century — since the 1918 influenza pandemic. In response, the world locked down, putting its economy into a kind of medically induced coma.

In this country, the immediate effects were (1) a savage and nearly instantaneous economic recession, accompanied by record unemployment, and (2) the fastest, deepest collapse in stock prices in living memory, if not ever.

Though I usually write you an extended personal summary annually concerning the year past — and will again — the stark drama of the last half year has been such that I wanted also to report to you now.

This letter follows the format of my annual reports to you. It’s divided into two parts, the first a statement of general principles, especially those most relevant in the current crisis, with a restatement of how I practice my stewardship of our clients’ invested wealth. The second is a review of what little can be known at this point, and of how I propose we continue to deal with the pervasive uncertainties of the moment.


General Principles

• I believe that all lastingly successful investing is essentially goal-focused and planning-driven. All failed investing is market-focused and event-driven.

• Stated another way: every truly successful investor I’ve ever known was acting continuously on a long-term plan. Every failed investor I’ve known continually reacted to sudden and terrifying market shocks.

• Thus I’ve found that long-term investing success is only incidentally a function of the economy and the markets. It is a direct function of how the investor reacts—or, more properly, how he/she refuses to react.

• You and I are long-term, goal-focused equity investors, acting on our plan with patience and discipline. The smaller part of what I do for clients is the crafting of that plan. The much larger part is helping them not to react in stressful times like this.

• I continue to believe that the equity market can’t be consistently forecast, much less timed, and that the only certain way of capturing equities’ superior long-term returns is to sit through their occasionally steep but historically temporary declines.


Review and Outlook

• At midyear, the best that can be said is that the first great wave of the pandemic appears to be abating, and the economy is slowly reopening. As it continues to reopen, there will inevitably be some flareup in new infections. The interaction between the pandemic and the economy in the short to intermediate term is therefore perfectly impossible to forecast, as is the timing of the development of a vaccine.

• The equity market crashed from a new all-time high on February 19 to a bear market low (so far) on March 23, down 34% in 33 days. There is no historical precedent for this steep a decline in so little time. Confoundingly, it then posted its best 50 days in history. The S&P 500 closed out the first half at 3,100.3, 8.4% off its all-time high.

• It is not possible to forecast the near-term course of corporate earnings or dividends, as they — like the economy they reflect — are still largely hostage to the pandemic. That said, I invite your attention to the fact that at June 30 the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note was less than 7 tenths of one percent.

• I infer from the current state of interest rates that though it is impossible to forecast equity earnings, dividends and prices, it can be stated as fact that few if any of my clients can continue to advance toward the achievement of their long-term financial goals in bonds, at anything close to today’s yields. This is just another reason why I’ve advised them to stay the course in equities.

• It should also be noted that even if the pandemic continues to subside and the economy to recover, investors will still have to deal with what may be the most widespread civil unrest in our country in decades, and what promises to be a bitterly partisan presidential election cycle. Emotions seem likely to continue to run high, with unpredictable short-term market consequences.

• I’ve very deliberately labored in this summary to convince you of the sheer unknowability of the short (say, the third quarter of 2020) to intermediate (say, through the first quarter of 2021) term economic and market outlook. In the next breath, I remind you that not one of you is investing for the next one to four calendar quarters. I say again: you and I are long-term, goal-focused, planning-driven, patient, disciplined investors. Our focus is on history rather than headlines, and our mantra is from Churchill: “The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see.”

• Finally, I would urge you to think back to January 1 of this year. Have your most cherished lifetime financial goals changed since then? If not, I see no compelling reason to change your plan — and no reason at all to change your portfolio.

• Be of good cheer. This too shall pass. Optimism remains, to me, the only long-term realism.


By all means, please be in touch with me with any and all questions and concerns. In the meantime, thank you — as always — for your interest.

Warmly,
Chris

Chris Mullis, Ph.D., CDFA®
Founding Partner
Financial Planning.
Wealth Management.
Since 2006AskNorthStar.com
(704) 350-5028
Paradigm shifts (and how to keep up)

Life has changed; how do we adapt without losing sight of what we want to achieve?

As you’ve heard me say before, no one knows how the future will play out, but we should still look ahead and think through the consequences of what’s happening. (More about this kind of second-order thinking ahead.)

I believe that our society and our economy are experiencing a massive paradigm shift.

We will never go back to the world we had before COVID-19, and the lens that we used to evaluate ideas, markets, economies, and personal choices over the last decade may not be sufficient for the next decade.

Here are just a few things that I see changing as a result of what’s going on now:

Social Support: 36.5 million Americans have become unemployed in two months, and the effects are rippling through families, communities, and the economy.1 The government has responded with trillions of stimulus dollars to individuals and businesses. More relief is likely to come. What does this mean for our society? Who should get a helping hand in tough times? Will we permanently expand the social safety net?

Work: Thrown into the largest work-from-home experiment in history, more workers and employers will transition to remote work post-pandemic. This shift in work has major implications. Which places will be a draw if workers can live anywhere and employers can have their pick of a nationwide (or global) workforce? Will those who must physically show up demand different compensation?

Education: Students, parents, schools, and universities are being forced to re-evaluate the definition of education now that the on-campus experience has gone online. What’s missing if you attend from home? What alternatives to a traditional four-year degree will arise?

Shopping & Entertainment: Brick-and-mortar retailers may never recover from the body blow dealt by pandemic lockdowns. Online shopping, grocery delivery, and digital services may finally overtake offline channels. What will the retail landscape look like when it’s easier (and maybe safer) to eat, shop, and watch at home?

What do you think? What do you see changing in the world? Please email me at chrismullis@nstarcapital.com and share your thoughts.

No one has all the answers about the new world and things are not always what they seem.

Though it appears that the stock market has moved past the pandemic, we shouldn’t celebrate just yet.

Why?

Much has changed in the world and we’re still playing out first-order effects. More consequences are coming.

“What are the second- and third-order consequences of this?” is a question big thinkers like Ray Dalio (manager of the largest hedge fund in the world) ask about complex scenarios.

Here’s what they mean:

First-order thinking is fast and simple: B is the logical outcome of event A.

But then what? What happens as a consequence of B?

And what happens as a result of that? And what is the follow-on effect of that?

Second-order thinking is about interactions and complex systems. It’s slow and hard (but mastering it can put us steps ahead of the crowd).

Understanding the new world that’s growing out of the pandemic requires thinking through these higher-order consequences and developing a new lens to navigate the uncertain waters ahead.

How can we adapt? How can we still pursue our goals in a totally different world?

We think it through with humility and an open mind.

We hone our second-order thinking skills by asking: what could happen? And then what? How likely is it that I’m right? What could happen if I’m wrong? How do I position myself?

We’ll do it together.

COVID-19 is going to be with us for the rest of 2020 and possibly into 2021. So we’re adapting.

At NorthStar Capital Advisors, it means we will remain entirely online for the time being.

It also means big changes in our personal lives. Our children are learning online through the end of the school year and perhaps back again this fall. My wife continues to be Super Woman managing our home and our department of education.

We’re taking it day by day and thinking through those higher-order effects.

How about you? What changes are you making to your plans this summer and fall?

Be well,
Chris

Chris Mullis, Ph.D.
Founding Partner
Financial Planning.
Wealth Management.
Since 2006

AskNorthStar.com
(704) 350-5028

P.S. A number of clients and friends have reached out to talk through options around a potential lay-off, buy-out offer, or early retirement. If this is on your mind, please let me know. We can work through it together.

P.P.S If you’ve got a kid in college this fall, I have a question for you: is virtual university still a compelling offer? Are you and your student considering a gap year or some alternative? Please email me at chrismullis@nstarcapital.com and let me know. I’m interested in learning from your experience.

1https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/05/14/unemployment-jobless-claims-coronavirus/

Chart source: https://www.artsci.com/studentpoll-covid-19-edition-2 

What the “new” normal could look like…
I hope you’re safe and well.

It’s been weeks since we shuttered the office and started working from home and, like many, I’m feeling the strain of upended life.

How about you? Are you ready to venture out again?

In this post, I thought I’d give you a rundown of some of the latest economic projections as well as a sneak peek of what post-lockdown life could look like for us soon.

(Ready for a break from COVID-19? No worries. Scroll down to the P.S. for some wonderful distractions.)

On to the economy.

You may have seen a headline showing that U.S. economic growth dropped -4.8% in the first quarter after posting 2.1% growth in Q4 2019. That’s not a surprise.1

Unfortunately, worse news is ahead since widespread layoffs and shutdowns didn’t hit until late March. Here’s a projection of what the next few quarters could look like for the economy.2

You can see in this chart that the coronavirus hit the economy like a tsunami. Q2 could be the worst quarter since the Great Depression.3

The arithmetic of recovering from a 30%+ drop in economic growth means that it could take many months (maybe even years) to return to pre-pandemic GDP levels, especially if we face multiple waves of infection.

Let’s mentally prepare for that.

April 2020 is likely to be one of the worst months for the economy in history; contradictorily, it was also a blockbuster month for stocks.4

Why are stocks so disconnected from the economic data?

Fundamentally, a stock’s price is an attempt to put a value on the underlying company’s earnings now and in the future. Complicating the calculation are factors like fear, greed, uncertainty, and movements in the overall market.

While economic data looks back at what has already happened (or is happening now), the stock market looks forward at the trajectory of the business environment. Framed that way, the rally isn’t so unusual since investors are expecting things to get better, not worse.

Will the rally continue? Hard to say. Volatility is very likely to be the name of the game for months.

Economists are predicting a rebound in Q3 2020. Are they right?

You know by now that we can’t perfectly predict what the recovery will look like; all economic estimates are based on educated guesses about spending, business investment, trade, and other factors. The biggest unknown is “personal consumption” by folks like you and me. Our spending drives 70% of economic growth.

The pace of the recovery depends on how quickly businesses reopen and consumers go out to shop, eat, travel, and spend money. If people don’t feel safe going out or don’t feel confident enough to open their wallets, growth could take longer to come back.

What do you think? Will you go back to your pre-coronavirus routine? Email me at chrismullis@nstarcapital.com  and let me know. I’m interested in hearing your perspective.

What could life look like as North Carolina reopens? While America is just now taking the first tentative steps toward reopening, many countries around the world are farther along, offering us a glimpse of what daily life might look like in a world where the coronavirus still remains a threat.5

Hong Kong: Restaurants are open but tables must be spaced farther apart.

South Korea: Pro sports are back but athletes play to empty stadiums. Temperature screening is in place in many buildings.

Taiwan: Schools are in session but assemblies are canceled and students wear face masks in class.

Australia: Beaches are open but sunbathing, picnicking, and large gatherings are verboten.

How long will coronavirus precautions overshadow our daily life? Realistically, some restrictions are likely to drag on until a vaccine or breakthrough treatment becomes widely available.

What do you think? What will our “new normal” look like?

Warmly,

Chris Mullis, Ph.D.
Founding Partner


P.S. I promised you some distractions from the coronavirus, and here they are:
Watch jellyfish float at the Monterey Bay Aquarium (includes relaxing music!).
Dream of a Caribbean vacation with the beach cam at the Soggy Dollar Bar on Jost Van Dyke.
SCUBA dive vicariously in a kelp forest off Anacapa Island.
Watch the live cam at Tembe Elephant Park.
Take an hour-long walking tour around Paris.

Enjoy!

—

Sources
1https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-1st-quarter-2020-advance-estimate
2https://www.cbo.gov/publication/56335
3https://www.marketwatch.com/story/echoes-of-the-great-depression-us-economy-could-post-biggest-contraction-ever-2020-03-19
4https://www.marketwatch.com/story/after-a-blockbuster-april-for-the-dow-and-sp-500-is-sell-in-may-in-the-coronavirus-era-a-smart-strategy-2020-04-30
5https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/02/world/asia/coronavirus-china-hong-kong-south-korea-australia.html

 
What lessons will you take from this?

So much is unknown.

Do we reopen or wait?

Are we past the peak? Or just over the first summit of a mountain range?

Are we safe yet?

After weeks of restrictions, it’s easy to feel that we’re swirling in a maelstrom of uncertainty, helpless to make decisions when so much remains unknown and out of our control.

The uncertainty, the personal losses many have experienced, and the everyday challenges of socially distant life can shake our foundation and cause us to lose touch with what’s most important.

I think that’s normal. We’ve traded a trip on the highway for an off-roading adventure. And we don’t know where it’s going to take us this year.

So let’s lean into the uncertainty. Let’s embrace it and use it as a wake-up call to explore and appreciate what really matters.

Our health. Our family, friends, and loved ones. Our home. Our community. Our compassion and creativity. Our resilience as human beings.

As for me, I have some moments of frustration, but I’m staying grounded by playing outside with our kids and working in the yard.

I’m also learning a lot about myself. I’ve learned that I really enjoy sitting face-to-face in the same room with clients, friends, and colleagues. I’ve learned that I’m not “camera ready” for Zoom meetings nor remote TV interviews, but I’m humbly trying to get better.

I’m working on gratitude and enjoying simple things like dinner-time conversations, our weekly visit with my parents, and fresh air.

I’m grateful to have a wonderful family, a comfortable home (aka The Bunker) and deeply meaningful work.

I’m grateful to have you.

On the professional side, I’m focused on what we can control on our clients’ behalf and staying abreast of what might come next. Our mantra right now is: “one day at a time.”

How are you? I’d love to hear how you are coping. What lessons are you learning about yourself? What have you had the courage to try for the first time? Hit “reply” and let me know.

This pandemic is scary. But it’s also a once-in-a-lifetime chance to hit the “reset” button and connect with the creativity, joy, and good old human ingenuity that can flourish within the limitations of pandemic life.

Eventually, we’ll recover from the pandemic. It’s not clear yet what that will look like, and we’ll likely see more hard days before we get there. Businesses will reopen, people will go back to work, the recession will pass, and the country will rebuild.

We will heal. But some marks will remain as reminders of our experience.

The Great Depression taught people to clip coupons and “make do or go without.” 9/11 upended our travel rituals and awareness of terrorism.

Some lessons from the pandemic will stay with us long after the immediate crisis fades. Some will be unconscious; maybe we’ll become a society of dutiful hand washers and social distancers.

Others will be lessons we consciously take with us about our values and ability to adapt to circumstances far beyond our control.

I’m hopeful and excited to see what we learn. Let’s make it good.

How has the pandemic changed your perspective? What new values and priorities will you bring out of your experiences?  Email me at chrismullis@nstarcapital.com and let me know.

Be well,
Chris

 

Chris Mullis, Ph.D.
Founding Partner
NorthStar Capital AdvisorsFinancial Planning.
Wealth Management.
Since 2006

AskNorthStar.com
(704) 350-5028


P.S. Do you know someone who is having a hard time and could use some financial advice? We’re holding a few spots open for folks who could use a professional’s help. If you can think of someone, please reply to this email or call (704) 350-5028 to let me know.

P.P.S. And don’t forget about our special COVID-19 pro bono planning we created to support individuals and families who can’t afford fiduciary advice and financial planning.

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