Bulls back in town? (Is it over yet?)

Is the bear market over?

Let’s discuss.

Good news first: inflation might be cooling off. Maybe.

The latest inflation data suggests we could be moving past the peak in some areas.

  • Gas prices are down1
  • Freight prices are down2
  • Overall measures of inflation are off their highs3

Great, right?

The data is certainly pointing in the right direction, but it’s too soon to celebrate.

Why? Well, it’s just not enough data yet to call it a sustained trend.

We’re also seeing signs that persistent inflation has led consumers to shift their spending.

That could make inflation improvements uneven AND result in some winners and losers across different sectors.4

Winners could be travel and auto companies benefiting from pent-up demand.

Losers could be homebuilders and luxury brands hit by higher interest rates and shifts in shopping trends.

Are the bulls back in town?

Markets rallied for weeks on optimism about data and possibly FOMO – fear of missing out on the action.5

Can we trust a summer rally? Is the bear market over?

Probably not. There are a lot of hurdles ahead, including the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes and earnings results from companies affected by those consumer spending changes, and election season.

One big question still remains: can the Fed bring down inflation without a “hard landing” that tips the country into recession?

Opinions are mixed, unsurprisingly. Some analysts think there’s a narrow path to success.6

Others think the risk of a recession is very high and that investors are underestimating how far the Fed will go to lower inflation.

Be prepared for more bumps ahead.

In other news, what’s in the Inflation Reduction Act for you?

Before we dive into the guts of the new legislation, we have one caveat:

While new deals always garner big headlines, it’s very possible that court challenges, post-election shakeups, or future negotiations could change a lot of the details inside.

That said, here are a few things to keep an eye on:

The Act mainly addresses two big areas: green energy and Medicare.

On the green side, the bill includes a slew of incentives to boost adoption of things like solar panels and electric vehicles.

However, many of the incentives may not be immediately available, as many of the specifics need to be figured out. Want a full rundown of the tax credits and rebates? Here you go.

On the Medicare side, the bill includes some interesting prospects for retirees:7

  • Starting in 2023, insulin costs for Medicare enrollees will be capped and vaccine cost-sharing will be eliminated.
  • Medicare prescription drug plans could see benefit changes in 2024 and 2025 designed to lower costs.
  • Medicare managers could have the power to negotiate (some) drug prices starting in 2026. That could mean cost savings for retirees as well as potentially lower premiums.
  • If you purchase insurance through an Affordable Care Act marketplace, you could qualify for an expanded premium tax credit through 2025 to help lower monthly costs.8

As always, we’ll have to wait for the legislation to mature before we can fully understand its total impact.

Overall, there’s a lot going on as we head into the fall and election season. Let’s not be surprised at more volatility or even a bigger selloff ahead.

 

1 – https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/gas-prices-dip-below-4-gallon-heres-why-still-could-bad-news-biden

2 – https://www.thetrucker.com/trucking-news/the-nation/trucking-freight-costs-us-wholesale-inflation-see-declines-for-first-time-in-2-years

3 – https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/july-inflation-numbers-consumer-prices-rose-85-year-year-summer-inflat-rcna42393

4 – https://www.investors.com/news/consumer-spending-us-economy-sputters-winners-losers/

5 – https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-blackrock-says-the-stock-markets-big-summer-rally-isnt-worth-chasing-11660579176

6 – https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/15/goldman-sees-a-feasible-but-difficult-path-for-the-fed-to-defeat-inflation-without-a-recession.html

7 – https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1109390/the-inflation-reduction-acts-impact-on-retirees

8 – https://www.kiplinger.com/taxes/605057/inflation-reduction-act-premium-tax-credit

Rollercoaster ride?

Markets rallied in relief on some better-than-expected data on Friday.1 It was a bright spot in what has seemed like a relentless parade of bad news.

But the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq still all closed out the week with losses.1

Is this the bottom of the bear market?

Maybe. Or maybe we’re somewhere in the middle with the loop-the-loops.

Let’s be prepared for volatility to continue.

Folks tend to focus a lot on the numbers, but emotions and behaviors may matter even more.

Knowing how to stick with a strategy during the loops and curves and uphills and downhills is a HUGE part of being a successful investor.

Market bottoms don’t come with a signpost. There’s no one waving a flag saying, “the worst is over, it’s all uphill from here!”

The end of a bear market looks an awful lot like the middle, and we don’t know if it’s the bottom until after we’re already past it.

That’s why it’s so important to stick to a strategy and not let the euphoria of a rally or the fear of drops sway our decisions.

Investors who bail during the downturns and miss the ride back up tend to lose spectacularly.

Why? Because the best days and worst market days have historically clustered.2

We don’t know how long this bear market will last. We don’t know if a recession is coming.

We do know this: you can’t enjoy the upside of the rollercoaster if you get off at the bottom.

Bottom line: it’s nice to get a reprieve from the selling pressure, but let’s be (emotionally and financially) prepared for a lot more volatility ahead.

Another wild ride

Markets bucked and sold off again.1

Should we be worried?

Not necessarily. These things happen pretty regularly, especially when headlines are negative.

In fact, you might recall that we kicked off 2022 with a big drop.2

So, let’s talk about what’s behind the latest wild market ride.

(Scroll to the end if you want to skip right to the reassurance.)

What led to the selloff?

Primarily, economic worries.1

Worries about new COVID-19 surges.

Worries about Ukraine.

Worries about the U.S. economy.

A report just came out showing the economy shrank by 1.4% in the first three months of 2022, surprising analysts who expected positive growth of 1.0%.3

Though a single quarter of negative growth isn’t a recession, it’s a sign that inflation, the Ukraine conflict, and the pandemic hangover are weighing on the economy.

Realistically, some form of a slowdown was probably inevitable, given the massive economic recovery of 2021.

And, the news isn’t all gloom. 1) This is a preliminary report, so we’ll see revisions later. 2) Economists still believe the economy has plenty of room to grow, particularly given the strength of the job market, so the economy could rebound. 3) Americans are continuing to spend.4

The economy is still strong, but it’s showing cracks. We’re watching closely.

You can see a theme: markets are being driven by worry and fear.

Is the selling done?

That’s impossible to say.

Could we see a bigger correction or bear market?

Absolutely. That’s very possible.

Corrections and pullbacks happen very frequently.

Here’s a chart that shows intra-year dips in the S&P 500 alongside annual performance. (You’ve probably seen this chart before.)

Take a look at the red circles to see the market drops each year.

The big takeaway? In 14 of the last 22 years, markets have dropped at least 10%.5

We’re dealing with a lot of uncertainty in 2022 and investors are feeling very cautious about the future.

However, that doesn’t mean that we should hit the panic button and exit our strategies.

Knee-jerk reactions to market turbulence can be VERY costly.

Questions? Concerns? Please hit “reply” and I’ll respond.

Thinking calm thoughts,
Dr. Chris Mullis, CFP®, CDFA®

P.S. A mental snack: A TED talk by psycho-economist Sheena Iyengar on how we make choices

P.P.S. Want to feel more grateful for what you have? Here’s another great TED talk on the topic by Benedictine monk David Steindl-Rast. If you watch it, hit “reply” and let me know what you think!

 

1 – https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/25/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

2 – https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/23/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

3 – https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/28/us-q1-gdp-growth.html

4 – https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/04/28/gdp-2022-q1-economy/

Archived PDF link

5 – https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/insights/market-insights/guide-to-the-markets/mi-guide-to-the-markets-us.pdf

What comes next?

Some perspective on the grim situation in Ukraine and what could happen in markets.

(Need a break from it? Scroll down to the P.S.)

The invasion of Ukraine is a serious and scary escalation in tensions between Russia, Europe, and the United States.

Before we dive in to what it could mean, let’s take a moment to think about the many folks who are suffering and dying as well as the ordinary Russians who will suffer from sanctions, instability, and economic damage.

We hope and pray that diplomacy can end this crisis for all our sakes.

Let’s talk about some possible implications for markets and our economy.

Given Ukraine’s critical pipelines and Western sanctions on Russia, the crisis may lead to higher energy prices, which will trickle down to higher pump and heating fuel costs.1

Sustained price increases could hamper the Federal Reserve’s effort to control inflation, so we’re keeping an eye on that as well.

What could happen in markets?

Extreme volatility, as we’ve already experienced, is very likely. Another correction (or even a bear market) is definitely possible.

What does history teach us about market reactions to geopolitical shocks?

History shows that stocks usually recover quickly from geopolitical crises.

We’ll add a disclaimer that the future doesn’t perfectly match the past — but it often rhymes.

Let’s take a look at some examples from other invasions and wars.2

Here’s the key takeaway: short-term, markets usually react badly. However, a year later, markets have historically recovered.

Will they always? In every case? That’s impossible to say.

But, the study of 29 geopolitical events since WWII shows a general trend toward short-term losses in the first weeks and longer-term gains over months.2

A note: “geopolitical event” is a very antiseptic phrase for horrible things like bombings, wars, invasions, attacks, and really fails to encompass the full cost in human misery.

Let’s never forget the truth behind the numbers.

We can’t know or control what happens next. We can hope, pray, donate, and speak out.

And we can focus on what’s in our control: Ourselves, our actions and reactions, and our strategies for uncertain times.

Let’s hug the people we love extra tightly today and be very grateful for our blessings.

Be well,
Dr. Chris & the NorthStar Team

 

P.S. Tired of war and bad news? Need a break? We’ve got two TED talks for you:
1) A dive into research that shows how our brains might be wired for optimism
2) How to forge meaning from challenging moments.

P.P.S. Looking for ways to donate to Ukrainians? Here’s a roundup of some organizations doing good work.

 

1 – https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/27/business/oil-prices-russia-ukraine.html
2 – https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/live-markets-what-history-says-about-geopolitics-market-2022-02-18/

A Teachable Moment

Click image to view speech 

Today marks a most significant anniversary in the economic and financial history of the United States, and I could not let it pass without comment. When properly appreciated, it can serve as an importantly teachable moment.

For it was a quarter century ago, on the night of Thursday, December 5, 1996, that the iconic Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan, speaking at a dinner of the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, gave his instantly legendary “irrational exuberance” speech.

And this is what the oracle said. Or more accurately, this is what he asked:

“How do we know when irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset values, which then become subject to unexpected and prolonged contractions as they have in Japan over the past decade? And how do we factor that assessment into monetary policy?” [43:38 in the video above]

Mr. Greenspan asked these twin rhetorical questions essentially because he did not have conclusive answers. And if he didn’t, you knew no one else in the world did either. But coming from him, even this interrogative form of thinking out loud was a financial thunderbolt — a shot heard round the world.

He surely understood that, when he so much as broached the question, he had at least suggested an answer. And that answer was unmistakably: we’re either already there, or will be mighty soon, as this greatest of all bull markets morphs into mania.

I thought it might be instructive — as well as a certain amount of good fun — to cast an eye over the intervening quarter century. Let’s begin with a key item of baseline data that may and certainly should inform our inquiry.

Fact: The Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index had closed that Thursday afternoon, in blissful ignorance of what was coming later in the evening, at 744.38. And sure enough — just as the oracle had darkly suggested it must — the S&P 500 topped out…three years, three months and 19 days later, on March 24, 2000, at 1,527.50. You read that right: it more than doubled in the 40 months after Greenspan’s dire warning.

I suppose I could just stop here, invite you to draw the obvious inference from the above, and call it a day. Said inference is, of course: No one — no central banker, no economist, no market strategist, no hedge fund manager — no one can predict the market, much less tell you where to get out and/or back in. The economy cannot be consistently forecast, nor the market consistently timed. By anyone.

But before I let you go, I’d just like to throw out a very few other potentially relevant factoids.

  • Friday afternoon, December 3, the S&P 500 closed at 4,538.43, up more than six times since Greenspan spoke.
  • With dividends reinvested, and any taxes paid from some other source, $10,000 invested in the S&P 500 on 12/4/96 is getting pretty close to $100,000 along about now.
  • The earnings of the S&P 500 for the year 1996 were $40.63. With less than a month to go in the current year, the consensus forecast is around $200, up almost exactly five times.
  • The S&P 500’s cash dividend in 1996 was $14.90. Consensus forecast for this year is about $60, up almost exactly four times. 
  • The Consumer Price Index was 158.6 in December 1996. It will most likely close out this year around 280, up a mere 1.8 times.

What, then, was the single best financial decision you could have made on Thursday night, December 5, 1996 — when the 11 o’clock news breathlessly reported Greenspan’s electrifying remarks? Right: turn off the TV and go to bed.

Just my opinion, of course, but the best move you can make this morning, 25 years on, regardless of the headlines? The same: turn off the TV, log out of your computer. Enjoy the rest of your day.

And let the compounding proceed, uninterrupted.

With every good wish,
Dr. Chris Mullis

Sources:
Historical S&P 500 Index and dividends: “S&P 500 Earnings History, NYU Stern School”
Consensus 2021 earnings forecast: Yardeni Research
Consensus 2021 dividend forecast: Bloomberg
Consumer Price Index: Inflationdata.com
Current net profit margin of the S&P 500: FactSet

 

Could the election tank the market? 3 things you need to know

 

The 2020 election is around the corner, adding another layer of uncertainty to an already volatile market.

This could be one of the most divisive races we’ve seen. We can’t predict its outcome or what it could mean for the economy.

So how can we keep a level head and make informed decisions amid so much chaos?

We made a quick video discussing three things you need to know to help protect your investments in the face of the unknown.

Video Transcript:

This is the FOURTH presidential election that we’ve navigated in our 15 years of helping our clients reduce taxes, invest smarter, and live better.

And we’re here to help you stay level-headed — even in times of chaos. The 2020 election is coming up fast, and we’ve had worried folks ask us: Will it tank the market?

In this video, we’ll give you three things to keep in mind so you can plan for uncertainty.

2020 has been wild, to say the least. And the upcoming election could be one of the most divisive races we’ve ever seen. Add a pandemic, confusing market trends, and it’s no wonder people are worried.

But let’s trade panic for perspective. Here are three WAYS we can prepare for election uncertainty:

#1 — It’s normal for markets to be more volatile in election years. But remember, other factors are always at play, like business cycles, interest rates, corporate profits — and, of course, unpredictable events like the pandemic. So what can you do? Take a deep breath and focus on the post-election period. If you want, we can help you create a plan to pursue long-term success, no matter who wins in November.

#2 — Markets don’t like uncertainty, and they don’t like surprises. So we can expect things to be a bit bumpy in the short term, especially in the weeks before and after the vote.

#3 — Regardless of who wins, the government will be focusing on the coronavirus and the country’s economic recovery. We don’t know what this will look like or how quickly things will happen. With some preparation now, we can help you create a financial plan that accounts for this uncertainty — and you can be less worried about your portfolio.

Listen, we don’t have a crystal ball. But we do have the advantage of knowing what’s happened in the past, and being able to prepare for what could happen in the future. While the past can’t predict the future, we can look to it for powerful perspective.

If you have questions about how the 2020 election might affect your portfolio or you’d like to talk one-on-one, please reach out.

As always — we thank you for your support, we appreciate your engagmement, and please be well.

 

This is why I’m an optimist

“The toilet paper had armed guards.”

“We celebrated my birthday with a dinner party over Zoom.”

“My officemate jumped on my desk and drooled on my keyboard during a meeting.”

One day, we’ll look back on these strange days and tell stories about the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020.

But right now, we’re getting through it. One day at a time.

How are you doing? What stories can you share with me about your life right now? Email me at chrismullis@nstarcapital.com and tell me. I’d love to hear about them.

In difficult times, it’s easy to think we are alone. Especially when our loved ones and support system are far away or reduced to virtual connections.

We are all learning how to adjust to a new world and stay grounded when headlines are blaring and our very health and well-being are under threat.

I’m working on being grateful for the great things in this life.

I’m grateful for my wife.

I’m grateful for our children.

I’m grateful for our family, friends, and neighbors.

I’m grateful for work that allows me to help people in my community get through times like these.

I’m grateful for you.

What are you grateful for?

Like WWII and 9/11, we’re living through days that will define future generations and change the very fabric of our society.

I don’t envy the policymakers making grim trade-offs between life, death, and the economy. How long do we socially distance? What about the 10 million+ who have lost jobs?1 Or the businesses that have been forced to close?

I hope with all my heart that each one of them has a financial plan and someone they can go to for advice. But my head knows better. I know that most Americans can’t survive a $1,000 emergency and only 17% have a financial adviser to help them.2

What trade-offs are we willing to make to protect those at greatest risk from the disease? We can’t put a dollar figure on human life. But we can put a dollar figure on the human cost of jobs lost and businesses closed.

The next few weeks are going to be tough for all of us. And I want you to know that I’m here for you.

Layoffs and furloughs are happening and I’m helping affected clients create a game plan to get through the next few months. If this happens to you or someone you love, please let me know immediately so I can help you determine if you’re eligible for special assistance. And, also please remember our COVID-19 pro bono program that we’ve launched to serve people who don’t normally have access to fiduciary advice.

How do we make good decisions with so much uncertainty and mixed information?

We make a choice:

We can choose to crumble under the weight of fear and uncertainty…

We can choose to simply hunker down and endure…

We can choose to grow, flourish, and come out stronger on the other side. We can be grateful for our blessings and focus on what’s within our control: our mindset, our behavior, and the actions we take.

I am fundamentally optimistic about humankind’s ability to weather this crisis and use it to grow.

I’m optimistic about how our society will adapt and change due to this crisis. Some of the greatest changes and innovations in history grew out of frightening, pessimistic times.

I’m optimistic about the heroes fighting the disease on the front lines.

I’m optimistic about the people helping friends, neighbors, and strangers stay safe and comfortable.

I’m optimistic that those with jobs will continue working to keep this country going while we wait and heal.

I’m optimistic about the innovators staying up late in labs, workshops, factories, and offices around the world to create vaccines, treatments, and tools to beat the virus.

I’m optimistic about the new inventions and technologies that will grow out of necessity.

I don’t know what challenges the world will throw at us in the coming days and weeks. I do know that I am grateful to be surrounded by smart, motivated people who push me to do better.

How can you show up for the people around you? How can you be your best self in these times?

How can I help you do it? Email or call and let me know.

Be safe and be well,
Chris

Chris Mullis, Ph.D.
Founding Partner
NorthStar Capital AdvisorsFinancial Planning.
Wealth Management.
Since 2006

AskNorthStar.com
(704) 350-5028

1https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-us-officially-lost-701000-jobs-in-march-but-in-reality-millions-vanished-2020-04-03

2https://www.bankrate.com/banking/savings/financial-security-january-2019/
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/01/when-it-comes-to-their-financial-future-most-americans-are-winging-it.html

 
WCCB TV Interviews Dr. Chris Mullis

Source: WCCB TV / Local Financial Advisors Say “Stay the Course” Following Historic Market Drop

Dr. Chris Mullis,  NorthStar’s Founding Partner, did an on-air interview with WCCB TV news anchor Drew Bollea discussing how people should think about their investments in the midst of a global panic induced by the coronavirus. (click image to watch video)

Ironically, this interview was recorded on March 9, 2020 — exactly 11 years to the day since the crescendo of global panic that marked the bottom of the 2007-09 bear market.


Here’s the memo that we sent clients and friends ahead of this interview that elaborates on the points made during the news report: 

March 9, 2020

At this morning’s opening level of 2,764, the S&P 500 is down over 18% from its all-time high, recorded on February 19. Declines of that magnitude are fairly common occurrences — indeed the average annual drawdown from a peak to a trough since 1980 is close to 14%. But such a decline in barely a month is noteworthy, not for its depth but for its suddenness.

As we all know by now, the precipitants of this decline have been (a) the outbreak of a new strain of virus, the extent of which can’t be predicted, (b) the economic impact of that outbreak, which is equally unknown, and (c) most recently, the onset of a price war in oil. (That last one is surely a problem for everyone involved in the production of oil, but it’s a boon to those of us who consume it.)

The common thread here is unknowability: we simply don’t know where, when or how these phenomena will play out. And in my experience, the thing in this world that markets hate and fear the most is uncertainty. We have no control over the uncertainty; we can and should have perfect control over how we respond to it.

Or, ideally, how we don’t respond. Because the last thing in the world that long-term, goal-focused investors like us do when the whole world is selling is — you guessed it again — sell. Indeed, I welcome your inquiries around the issue of putting cash to work along in here.

On March 3, the erudite billionaire investor Howard Marks wrote, “It would be a lot to accept that the US business world — and the cash flows it will produce in the future — are worth 13% less today than they were on February 19.” How much more true this observation must be a week later, when they’re down 18%.

Be of good cheer. This too shall pass.

Tune Out the Noise…your portfolio will thank you for it!

noise

One Day in Mainstream Media Market Headlines…

6:00 AM MarketWatch US Futures Down As Euro Pressures Mount

6:30 AM TheStreet.com US Stock Futures Recover on Amazon Tablet Expectation

7:15 AM MarketWatch Stocks Fall in Pre-Market Amid Global Concerns

8:00 AM Minyanville Stocks Buoyant Ahead of August Durable Goods Orders

8:10 Wall Street Journal US Marts Down Briefly, Techs Remain Higher

9:15 AM TheStreet.com US Stocks Mixed Ahead of Open After Durable Goods Orders

9:45 AM MarketWatch Stocks Decline Slightly On Economic Concerns

10:15 AM MarketWatch US Stocks Fall on European Woes

11:00 AM Minyanville Stocks Up After Morning in Which They Were Slightly Down

11:30 AM TheStreet.com Stocks Exist  at Half Past 11 AM this Morning

12:00 PM  MarketWatch Stocks Slightly Higher at Mid-Day as I Pick Up My Dry Cleaning

12:15 PM Bloomberg Markets Stabilize as Japanese PM Explains Proclivity for Vending Machine Pornography

12:30 PM Minyanville US Markets Rally Modestly as Stocks Don’t Be Down

1:00 PM TheStreet.com Stocks Off Slightly After Cloud Passes Briefly in Front of the Sun

1:30 PM Reuters We are Better than You and You Probably Realise that by Now

1:50 PM Wall Street Journal US Stocks Extend Advance after Not Extending Decline

2:15 PM Minyanville Markets in Retreat as Euro Pressures Threaten Global Recovery

3:10 PM TheStreet.com US Stocks Unchanged, We Are Seriously Running Out of Reasons for Random Things You Guys

3:11 PM TheStreet.com US Stocks Still Unchanged, We Just Checked For You

3:34 PM Bloomberg Markets Neutral Into the Close

3:37 PM MarketWatch Neutral Markets Into the Close

3:50 PM Wall Street Journal Stocks Set to Close Flat on Session as European Woes Continue to Cause Concern

3:56 PM Reuters US Stock Market Flat on Close

4:01 PM MarketWatch No Change in US Stocks Today on Excessive Nonsensical Headlines, Tune in Tomorrow

Avoid getting caught up in the hype and drama of media’s talking heads.

Best Illustration of Bull & Bear Markets

Here’s the best illustration we’ve ever seen of history’s bull and bear markets.  This chart shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index from 1926 through September 2017. Blue denotes past bull markets’ durations and returns (total and annualized).  Orange denotes the bear markets.  The pink vertical bars delineate recessions.

At a 100,000-ft level, this chart underscores the benefits of investing for the long-term. Two specific takeaways:

  1. There’s a lot more blue than orange meaning stocks tend to spend more time going up in value than going down.
  2. The current bull market might feel long, but by historical standards, the length and strength of this bull is not exceptional

Source: First Trust

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