Market Outlook - Charlotte Financial Planning & Advice

Could the election tank the market? 3 things you need to know

The 2020 election is around the corner, adding another layer of uncertainty to an already volatile market.

This could be one of the most divisive races we’ve seen. We can’t predict its outcome or what it could mean for the economy.

So how can we keep a level head and make informed decisions amid so much chaos?

We made a quick video discussing three things you need to know to help protect your investments in the face of the unknown.

Video Transcript:

This is the FOURTH presidential election that we’ve navigated in our 15 years of helping our clients reduce taxes, invest smarter, and live better.

And we’re here to help you stay level-headed — even in times of chaos. The 2020 election is coming up fast, and we’ve had worried folks ask us: Will it tank the market?

In this video, we’ll give you three things to keep in mind so you can plan for uncertainty.

2020 has been wild, to say the least. And the upcoming election could be one of the most divisive races we’ve ever seen. Add a pandemic, confusing market trends, and it’s no wonder people are worried.

But let’s trade panic for perspective. Here are three WAYS we can prepare for election uncertainty:

#1 — It’s normal for markets to be more volatile in election years. But remember, other factors are always at play, like business cycles, interest rates, corporate profits — and, of course, unpredictable events like the pandemic. So what can you do? Take a deep breath and focus on the post-election period. If you want, we can help you create a plan to pursue long-term success, no matter who wins in November.

#2 — Markets don’t like uncertainty, and they don’t like surprises. So we can expect things to be a bit bumpy in the short term, especially in the weeks before and after the vote.

#3 — Regardless of who wins, the government will be focusing on the coronavirus and the country’s economic recovery. We don’t know what this will look like or how quickly things will happen. With some preparation now, we can help you create a financial plan that accounts for this uncertainty — and you can be less worried about your portfolio.

Listen, we don’t have a crystal ball. But we do have the advantage of knowing what’s happened in the past, and being able to prepare for what could happen in the future. While the past can’t predict the future, we can look to it for powerful perspective.

If you have questions about how the 2020 election might affect your portfolio or you’d like to talk one-on-one, please reach out.

As always — we thank you for your support, we appreciate your engagmement, and please be well.

This is why I’m an optimist

“The toilet paper had armed guards.”

“We celebrated my birthday with a dinner party over Zoom.”

“My officemate jumped on my desk and drooled on my keyboard during a meeting.”

One day, we’ll look back on these strange days and tell stories about the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020.

But right now, we’re getting through it. One day at a time.

How are you doing? What stories can you share with me about your life right now? Email me at chrismullis@nstarcapital.com and tell me. I’d love to hear about them.

In difficult times, it’s easy to think we are alone. Especially when our loved ones and support system are far away or reduced to virtual connections.

We are all learning how to adjust to a new world and stay grounded when headlines are blaring and our very health and well-being are under threat.

I’m working on being grateful for the great things in this life.

I’m grateful for my wife.

I’m grateful for our children.

I’m grateful for our family, friends, and neighbors.

I’m grateful for work that allows me to help people in my community get through times like these.

I’m grateful for you.

What are you grateful for?

Like WWII and 9/11, we’re living through days that will define future generations and change the very fabric of our society.

I don’t envy the policymakers making grim trade-offs between life, death, and the economy. How long do we socially distance? What about the 10 million+ who have lost jobs?¹ Or the businesses that have been forced to close?

I hope with all my heart that each one of them has a financial plan and someone they can go to for advice. But my head knows better. I know that most Americans can’t survive a $1,000 emergency and only 17% have a financial adviser to help them.²

What trade-offs are we willing to make to protect those at greatest risk from the disease? We can’t put a dollar figure on human life. But we can put a dollar figure on the human cost of jobs lost and businesses closed.

The next few weeks are going to be tough for all of us. And I want you to know that I’m here for you.

Layoffs and furloughs are happening and I’m helping affected clients create a game plan to get through the next few months. If this happens to you or someone you love, please let me know immediately so I can help you determine if you’re eligible for special assistance. And, also please remember our COVID-19 pro bono program that we’ve launched to serve people who don’t normally have access to fiduciary advice.

How do we make good decisions with so much uncertainty and mixed information?

We make a choice:

We can choose to crumble under the weight of fear and uncertainty…

We can choose to simply hunker down and endure…

We can choose to grow, flourish, and come out stronger on the other side. We can be grateful for our blessings and focus on what’s within our control: our mindset, our behavior, and the actions we take.

I am fundamentally optimistic about humankind’s ability to weather this crisis and use it to grow.

I’m optimistic about how our society will adapt and change due to this crisis. Some of the greatest changes and innovations in history grew out of frightening, pessimistic times.

I’m optimistic about the heroes fighting the disease on the front lines.

I’m optimistic about the people helping friends, neighbors, and strangers stay safe and comfortable.

I’m optimistic that those with jobs will continue working to keep this country going while we wait and heal.

I’m optimistic about the innovators staying up late in labs, workshops, factories, and offices around the world to create vaccines, treatments, and tools to beat the virus.

I’m optimistic about the new inventions and technologies that will grow out of necessity.

I don’t know what challenges the world will throw at us in the coming days and weeks. I do know that I am grateful to be surrounded by smart, motivated people who push me to do better.

How can you show up for the people around you? How can you be your best self in these times?

How can I help you do it? Email or call and let me know.

Be safe and be well,
Chris

Chris Mullis, Ph.D.
Founding Partner
NorthStar Capital AdvisorsFinancial Planning.
Wealth Management.
Since 2006

AskNorthStar.com
(704) 350-5028

¹_{https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-us-officially-lost-701000-jobs-in-march-but-in-reality-millions-vanished-2020-04-03}

²_{https://www.bankrate.com/banking/savings/financial-security-january-2019/}
_{https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/01/when-it-comes-to-their-financial-future-most-americans-are-winging-it.html}

WCCB TV Interviews Dr. Chris Mullis

Source: WCCB TV / Local Financial Advisors Say “Stay the Course” Following Historic Market Drop

Dr. Chris Mullis, NorthStar’s Founding Partner, did an on-air interview with WCCB TV news anchor Drew Bollea discussing how people should think about their investments in the midst of a global panic induced by the coronavirus. (click image to watch video)

Ironically, this interview was recorded on March 9, 2020 — exactly 11 years to the day since the crescendo of global panic that marked the bottom of the 2007-09 bear market.

Here’s the memo that we sent clients and friends ahead of this interview that elaborates on the points made during the news report:

March 9, 2020

At this morning’s opening level of 2,764, the S&P 500 is down over 18% from its all-time high, recorded on February 19. Declines of that magnitude are fairly common occurrences — indeed the average annual drawdown from a peak to a trough since 1980 is close to 14%. But such a decline in barely a month is noteworthy, not for its depth but for its suddenness.

As we all know by now, the precipitants of this decline have been (a) the outbreak of a new strain of virus, the extent of which can’t be predicted, (b) the economic impact of that outbreak, which is equally unknown, and (c) most recently, the onset of a price war in oil. (That last one is surely a problem for everyone involved in the production of oil, but it’s a boon to those of us who consume it.)

The common thread here is unknowability: we simply don’t know where, when or how these phenomena will play out. And in my experience, the thing in this world that markets hate and fear the most is uncertainty. We have no control over the uncertainty; we can and should have perfect control over how we respond to it.

Or, ideally, how we don’t respond. Because the last thing in the world that long-term, goal-focused investors like us do when the whole world is selling is — you guessed it again — sell. Indeed, I welcome your inquiries around the issue of putting cash to work along in here.

On March 3, the erudite billionaire investor Howard Marks wrote, “It would be a lot to accept that the US business world — and the cash flows it will produce in the future — are worth 13% less today than they were on February 19.” How much more true this observation must be a week later, when they’re down 18%.

Be of good cheer. This too shall pass.

Tune Out the Noise…your portfolio will thank you for it!

One Day in Mainstream Media Market Headlines…

6:00 AM MarketWatch US Futures Down As Euro Pressures Mount

6:30 AM TheStreet.com US Stock Futures Recover on Amazon Tablet Expectation

7:15 AM MarketWatch Stocks Fall in Pre-Market Amid Global Concerns

8:00 AM Minyanville Stocks Buoyant Ahead of August Durable Goods Orders

8:10 Wall Street Journal US Marts Down Briefly, Techs Remain Higher

9:15 AM TheStreet.com US Stocks Mixed Ahead of Open After Durable Goods Orders

9:45 AM MarketWatch Stocks Decline Slightly On Economic Concerns

10:15 AM MarketWatch US Stocks Fall on European Woes

11:00 AM Minyanville Stocks Up After Morning in Which They Were Slightly Down

11:30 AM TheStreet.com Stocks Exist at Half Past 11 AM this Morning

12:00 PM MarketWatch Stocks Slightly Higher at Mid-Day as I Pick Up My Dry Cleaning

12:15 PM Bloomberg Markets Stabilize as Japanese PM Explains Proclivity for Vending Machine Pornography

12:30 PM Minyanville US Markets Rally Modestly as Stocks Don’t Be Down

1:00 PM TheStreet.com Stocks Off Slightly After Cloud Passes Briefly in Front of the Sun

1:30 PM Reuters We are Better than You and You Probably Realise that by Now

1:50 PM Wall Street Journal US Stocks Extend Advance after Not Extending Decline

2:15 PM Minyanville Markets in Retreat as Euro Pressures Threaten Global Recovery

3:10 PM TheStreet.com US Stocks Unchanged, We Are Seriously Running Out of Reasons for Random Things You Guys

3:11 PM TheStreet.com US Stocks Still Unchanged, We Just Checked For You

3:34 PM Bloomberg Markets Neutral Into the Close

3:37 PM MarketWatch Neutral Markets Into the Close

3:50 PM Wall Street Journal Stocks Set to Close Flat on Session as European Woes Continue to Cause Concern

3:56 PM Reuters US Stock Market Flat on Close

4:01 PM MarketWatch No Change in US Stocks Today on Excessive Nonsensical Headlines, Tune in Tomorrow

Avoid getting caught up in the hype and drama of media’s talking heads.

Best Illustration of Bull & Bear Markets

Here’s the best illustration we’ve ever seen of history’s bull and bear markets. This chart shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index from 1926 through September 2017. Blue denotes past bull markets’ durations and returns (total and annualized). Orange denotes the bear markets. The pink vertical bars delineate recessions.

At a 100,000-ft level, this chart underscores the benefits of investing for the long-term. Two specific takeaways:

There’s a lot more blue than orange meaning stocks tend to spend more time going up in value than going down.
The current bull market might feel long, but by historical standards, the length and strength of this bull is not exceptional

Source: First Trust

53 Smart-Sounding Reasons to Sell Stocks During 100x Market

Here are 53 smart-sounding reasons to sell stocks during a period in which the market went up 100x after inflation.

These days it seems all too easy to come up with a reason to be pessimistic. Be careful.

Optimism is the only realism. It’s the only worldview which squares with the facts, and with the historical record.

Source: Morgan Housel