August 2020 - NorthStar Capital Advisors

Could the election tank the market? 3 things you need to know

The 2020 election is around the corner, adding another layer of uncertainty to an already volatile market.

This could be one of the most divisive races we’ve seen. We can’t predict its outcome or what it could mean for the economy.

So how can we keep a level head and make informed decisions amid so much chaos?

We made a quick video discussing three things you need to know to help protect your investments in the face of the unknown.

Video Transcript:

This is the FOURTH presidential election that we’ve navigated in our 15 years of helping our clients reduce taxes, invest smarter, and live better.

And we’re here to help you stay level-headed — even in times of chaos. The 2020 election is coming up fast, and we’ve had worried folks ask us: Will it tank the market?

In this video, we’ll give you three things to keep in mind so you can plan for uncertainty.

2020 has been wild, to say the least. And the upcoming election could be one of the most divisive races we’ve ever seen. Add a pandemic, confusing market trends, and it’s no wonder people are worried.

But let’s trade panic for perspective. Here are three WAYS we can prepare for election uncertainty:

#1 — It’s normal for markets to be more volatile in election years. But remember, other factors are always at play, like business cycles, interest rates, corporate profits — and, of course, unpredictable events like the pandemic. So what can you do? Take a deep breath and focus on the post-election period. If you want, we can help you create a plan to pursue long-term success, no matter who wins in November.

#2 — Markets don’t like uncertainty, and they don’t like surprises. So we can expect things to be a bit bumpy in the short term, especially in the weeks before and after the vote.

#3 — Regardless of who wins, the government will be focusing on the coronavirus and the country’s economic recovery. We don’t know what this will look like or how quickly things will happen. With some preparation now, we can help you create a financial plan that accounts for this uncertainty — and you can be less worried about your portfolio.

Listen, we don’t have a crystal ball. But we do have the advantage of knowing what’s happened in the past, and being able to prepare for what could happen in the future. While the past can’t predict the future, we can look to it for powerful perspective.

If you have questions about how the 2020 election might affect your portfolio or you’d like to talk one-on-one, please reach out.

As always — we thank you for your support, we appreciate your engagmement, and please be well.

4 Tips for Rocking Your Personal Finances in College

Heading off to college is an exciting life transition and a major growth opportunity. For many young people, it’s their first chance to manage their own finances. Parents and students who invest a little time, planning, and partnership up front will reap profound benefits for life. Follow these four tips to ensure that you have a great financial launch!

Open a checking account
Often the university credit union or local counterpart is a trustworthy, low-cost option. Download the bank’s mobile app to make easy deposits and to check account balances. Set automatic alerts to provide low-balance notifications or other helpful information. Parents will likely find it convenient to link their bank account to their child’s to provide monthly allowances, etc.

Build a budget
Discuss sources of money and allowances. Know what money is coming in and going out by tracking it. Sign up for Mint.com. Draft a simple spending plan and follow it. Don’t overspend. Don’t forget to budget for an occasional indulgence (within reason!). Resist temptations and impulse purchases. Learn to differentiate between wants versus needs. Expect to iterate a few times on your budget as parents and students adaptively learn the reasonable costs of college life.

Get a credit card
Credit cards are for the convenience and security of not having to carry large sums of cash. Credit cards are NOT for spending money you don’t already have. If you can’t pay off the entire credit card balance each month, you are OVERspending. Avoid on-campus promotions that covertly proffer high-interest-rate cards via enticements of free t-shirts, tumblers, or other trinkets. Again, the university credit union is often a safe space. It’s ideal to have a checking and credit card at the same bank to make payments and management easier. Set alerts (e.g., purchases > $100) to flag transactions above normal spending patterns and protect against fraud.

Start Saving and Investing NOW
I know it’s hard, but having the foresight and the discipline, as a college student, to save and invest will be LIFE CHANGING. No one ever told us this and it is our greatest financial regret. Committing to saving even a small amount each month will add up quickly over time and instill a good habit of saving. Compounding growth is magical — save $20 per month starting at age 18, invest it to grow at 8% per year, and keep doing this for 40 years. You will have contributed $9,600, but your account will have grown to $64,422 thanks to compounded growth. This is your “army of dollar bills” working and growing for you. To get started, open a Roth IRA at a low-cost provider (e.g., Vanguard or Fidelity) and invest your earned income in an S&P 500 index fund. Long-term success is predicated on time in the market, not timing the market.

The budgeting, spending, and savings habits that students form in the coming months and years in college will likely establish their money management persona for life. By cultivating this money-centric parent-student learning partnership, you’re making an investment in your long-term security and happiness.

Should I refinance my mortgage? (It’s more complex than you might think)

If you purchased your house years ago, you might be wondering: is now a good time to refinance?

You’d think the answer would be simple: getting a lower interest rate on a loan is better, right?

However, the right choice really depends on your situation. And with the way fees and mortgage interest work, a refinance is often a bad deal for a homeowner.

We made a short video walking through the key questions you need to ask before jumping into a refinance.

You can watch it here.

WATCH NOW

Is the sky really falling?

I’m sure you saw the headlines:

“Record Economic Plunge”¹

“Second-Quarter GDP Plunged by Worst-Ever 32.9%”²

“U.S. Economy Contracted at Record Rate Last Quarter”³

It sure sounds like the sky is falling.

Is it really? Let’s take a step back and put the news in perspective.

The coronavirus shutdown thumped the economy, businesses, and workers badly over the last two quarters, and it’s uncertain how quickly we’ll recover.

We knew that Q2 GDP numbers (Gross Domestic Product) were going to be horrible. In fact, in May, the Federal Reserve thought they were going to be even worse.⁴

So, ~33% down is actually better than expected.

But, despite the headline, we didn’t actually “lose” 33% of economic production last quarter. The Commerce Department reports data on an “annualized” basis to make it easier to compare; so, if you looked at it quarter-over-quarter, the economy lost 9.5% since Q1.⁵

That’s still an eye-watering blow to the economy, but it’s not an apocalypse.

The largest contributing factor to the economic losses was a steep drop in personal spending, particularly on services, which makes complete sense in a shutdown.⁶

Three points before we move on:

This is an advance estimate for Q2, and we will see revisions as more data are finalized.
Though this is the sharpest drop in the shortest time in history, it was caused by the shutdown, and we’re already climbing out of it.
63.8% of economists think Q3 is when we’ll see the recovery really pick up steam, and the current forecast is for 15.2% annualized growth this quarter.⁷

So, what’s up with markets?

I think markets are being driven by a few big trends.

In a previous note, I mentioned what a Nobel-laureate economist calls “FOMO mania” by investors who fear missing out on the bounce. I think that’s still in effect as investors continue to pile into stocks, especially in the tech sector.⁸

I also think the market is being supported by massive government spending and Federal Reserve intervention.

And thirdly, I think a lot of traders are betting heavily on the recovery. If states have to shut down again, the collective delusion may collapse and trigger a correction. We’re watching for that.

How long will the rally last? That’s anyone’s guess. I’ve seen many cheerful forecasts predicting new all-time-highs. I’ve also seen plenty dolefully predicting the next crash.

With so much unknown, they’re all guesses. Even in less-murky circumstances, the market gurus are only accurate about 47% of the time.⁹

So, since we can’t predict what’s going to happen in Q3 and Q4, we’re staying agile and focusing on the fundamentals of good planning.

I know, it’s a really boring answer. But that’s how we give ourselves the best opportunity for success in chaotic times.

Let’s talk about you.

How are you doing?

What kind of decisions are you making right now?

Can I help? Shoot me an email at chrismullis@nstarcapital.com and let me know.

Warmly,
Chris