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Class of 2019: Financial Advice That will CHANGE YOUR LIFE

PDS-CommencementThe following is a brief excerpt from the commencement address by Dr. Chris Mullis (Financial Planner & Founding Partner at NorthStar Capital Advisors) to the graduating class of Providence Day School on May 31, 2013. The full text of Dr. Mullis’ speech, that includes career advice, financial guidance, and a few pearls of wisdom, can be found here.

At our financial advisory firm, we developed complex computer algorithms and use them to manage our clients’ investment portfolios. But the basic steps you need to take to manage your own money well are deceptively simple. First, live within your means and avoid being caught up in rapid lifestyle inflation. You will not live like your parents when you first start out. Second, save and invest your money wisely. Let me elaborate on this point.

Wealth accumulation depends on three factors: how much you save, the rate at which your money grows, and how long you save. That last factor, time, is very, very important. There’s an urban legend that Albert Einstein once said that compounding interest is the most powerful force in the Universe. That quote is likely misattributed but the message is spot on. If you save $5,000 a year for 40 years and earn 8% annually, you will eventually have $1.3M. But if you delay starting for merely 5 years, your results after 35 years will be only $860k. That 5-year delay preserved $25k of short-term capital but ultimately cost you >$400k in the long run. Time is the most powerful lever in the machinery of investing. Nothing else comes close to it.

So what do you need to do? Start saving and investing right out of high school regardless of how hard you think it hurts or how unpleasant the tradeoffs. Even if you set aside only 5% of your paycheck starting out, do it to get into the habit of saving. Delaying getting serious about investing until my 30s was a significant financial mistake on my part. No one ever sat me down and explained how important it is to start investing early. Now that we’ve had this little talk, you’ll never be able to say that no one told you.

When promised quick profits, respond with a quick “no”

Warren Buffett and Lloyd Blankfei At Detroit Small Business EventWarren Buffett is one of the most successful and sage investors alive today.  Students of investing anxiously await his annual letter to shareholders to glean pearls of the wisdom from this master.

Here’s one of our favorite Warren Buffett quotes from the 2014 letter:

“You don’t need to be an expert in order to achieve satisfactory investment returns. But if you aren’t, you must recognize your limitations and follow a course certain to work reasonably well. Keep things simple and don’t swing for the fences. When promised quick profits, respond with a quick ‘no.’”

Unfortunately there are many people that are victimized by financial fraudsters.  It happens everywhere and all the time. For example, in 2014 a Charlotte, NC man, Mitchell Brian Huffman, was ordered to a pay $2.1 million civil penalty for operating a Ponzi scheme that bilked clients out of about $3.2 million.

Huffman told his 30 victims that he was generating outrageously high annual rates of return of 100% to 150% using a proprietary trading program. Huffman used their money to fund a lavish lifestyle including classic cars and luxury vacations.

 

Sir Isaac Newton: Monumental Scientist, Terrible Investor

220px-GodfreyKneller-IsaacNewton-1689Most people recognize Sir Isaac Newton as one of the most influential scientists of all time, but did you know he was a horrible investor?

Newton’s experience with the South Sea Company vividly demonstrates the financial perils of chasing hot markets, getting caught up in investment bubbles, and not maintaining a diversified portfolio.

In the early 18th century the South Sea Company was established and given a monopoly on trade in the South Seas in return for assuming England’s war debt.  Investors liked the idea of that monopoly and the company’s stock began to take off.

Newton hear the siren call of the South Sea Company, invested his cash in early 1720 and managed to turn a nice profit.  But then the stock kept soaring after he had gotten out. So Newton jumped back into the stock with a lot more money than his original investment.

Newton subsequently lost 20,000 pounds, almost all of his life savings!  From this terrible outcome, Newton supposedly decreed, “I can calculate the movement of the stars, but not the madness of men.”

No warning on Earth can save people determined to grow suddenly rich.
— Lord Overstone

newton-investsSource: Sovereign Man

 

 

Great Expectations

Expectations are very important. If you know what to expect, you shouldn’t be surprised. And if you’re not surprised, you won’t panic.

Coaching clients on what to expect and how (not) to respond to extraneous events is our defining role as a real financial advisor. 

We invest in stocks because of their superior returns. Those historically higher returns are a reward for tolerating volatility (i.e., the “volatility premium”).  But what does stock volatility look like in the real world? What pattern of price variability should we expect?

Well, here it is in its most elegant of graphical forms (click image for a bigger view).

Here’s how to read this chart:

  • The intra-year decline versus the annual return of the S&P 500 are plotted vertically with years running horizontally from 1980 through year-to-date 2019.
  • The annual return (grey bars) show the calendar year price increase. For example, in 1980 stocks climbed 26% for the year.
  • The intra-year decline (red dots) is the largest market drop from peak to trough during that year.  For example, in 1980 we experienced a 17% drawdown.
  • Putting these together, in 1980 the stock market dipped 17% before closing up 26% by the end of the year.

It’s not hard to see that short, intra-year declines are the norm.

In fact, the average intra-year drop is 13.9%. But despite these temporary declines, the annual returns are positive in 29 of 39 years (74% of the time). During the charted time period 1980 to 2018 the average annual return was 8.4% This pattern is persistent.  If you look back to 1946, the average drawdown is a remarkably close 13.8%, and the price return was positive 51 of the 73 years (70% of the time).

History shows the declines are temporary, the advance is permanent.

Think about how the average person responds to these intra-year declines. The financial media is screaming about the crisis du jour which is consistently characterized as the end of the world (“I’ve lived through some terrible things in my life, some of which have actually happened.” — Mark Twain ).  Data shows the average investor, without the support of a caring, empathetic coach/advisor, consistently sells at the worst of times – i.e., during one of these perfectly normal and temporary pullbacks.

Volatility does not equal a financial loss unless you sell.

In our humble opinion, possessing an informed expectation, one that allows you to ignore short-term gyrations to capture long-term gains, is a Great Expectation.

The Pitfalls of Investing
pitfall

Pitfall? Get it? I couldn’t resist.

Ben Carlson has a great piece on how avoiding the crippling mistakes of investing will greatly improve your results.

Here is Carlson’s list of the biggest mistakes to avoid:

  • Making investment decisions based on your political views.
  • Confusing your risk profile and time horizon with someone else’s.
  • Consistently trying to time the market.
  • Losing site of your long term financial goals.
  • Paying high fees on investments.
  • Having high trading activity.
  • Letting fear and greed take over at the extremes in market sentiment.
  • Having the majority of your investments tied up in one asset (company stock, your house, etc.).
  • Basing your decisions on what you heard on CNBC or Fox Business News.
  • Following every tick in the market and constantly checking the value of your portfolio.
  • Making too many short term moves with long term capital.
  • Basing your investments on the most recent performance.
  • Not saving enough.

For the ultimate backstop, Jason Zweig of the Wall Street Journal has a piece of advice most investors would be wise to follow:

Approximately 99% of the time, the single most important thing investors should do is absolutely nothing.

Be safe out there!

Nothing on this website constitutes either the provision of investment advice or solicitation to provide investment advice. Investment advice can only be provided through a formal investment advisory relationship. Copyright © 2020 NorthStar Capital Advisors - Charlotte, NC. All Rights Reserved.