Medicare changes retirees need to know about

New laws are here!

The new Inflation Reduction Act is a big enchilada of green energy spending, corporate taxes, and some pretty major changes to Medicare.

Is this deal a big deal? Could be. I’ll wrap it up for you at the end.

First, here are some Medicare changes you might want to know about:1

Medicare will be able to negotiate drug prices (starting in 2026)

For the first time, the Medicare program will have the power to negotiate the cost of (some) drugs.

Before price negotiations kick off, new rules will also force manufacturers to pay “rebates” to the government if they increase covered drug prices higher than general inflation (starting in 2023) and limit Medicare Part D premium increases each year (starting in 2024).1

Why does this matter? Drug price inflation is crazy high, outpacing general inflation for thousands of medications.2

The power to negotiate drug prices with manufacturers could end up lowering costs. For example, a budget study found that Medicare was paying 32% more for the same drugs as Medicaid (which already has the power to negotiate prices).1

Lower prices could lead to overall program savings (and possibly lower Medicare premiums), plus save money for retirees who depend on those specific drugs.

Out-of-pocket drug costs on Part D will be capped at $2,000/year (starting in 2025)

Under current laws, there’s no cap on how much people have to spend out-of-pocket for their medications, which can really add up under cost-sharing requirements.

Starting in 2024, folks who spend enough out-of-pocket on medications to surpass the “catastrophic threshold” will no longer have to pay coinsurance for their expensive drugs.1

And, starting in 2025, the maximum out-of-pocket medicine cost for folks on Part D will be a flat $2,000.

Why does this matter? Many drugs (especially new ones) can be devastatingly expensive.

Capping annual drug costs will hopefully not only save folks money, but also lead to more predictability in their yearly health care costs.

Out-of-pocket insulin costs will be capped at $35/month for Medicare participants (starting in 2023)

Starting in 2023, enrollees won’t have to spend more than $35 per month on their insulin copays.1

Folks on private health insurance won’t see a change.

Why does this matter? As anyone who needs insulin will tell you, it can get pricey, costing over $500 per year on average.3 Much more if you need one of the more expensive versions.

Capping costs could help the millions who need this life-saving medication.

All vaccines will be free under Part D (starting in 2023)

While flu and COVID-19 shots might be covered for many, most vaccines are not.

Starting in 2023, cost-sharing under Part D will end, making ALL covered adult vaccines free.1

Why does this matter? Many adult vaccines can cost quite a few bucks. For example, the shingles vaccine can cost upwards of $150 a pop and other recommended jabs can also be very pricey.4

Making vaccines free could not only lower the financial impact of immunizations, but also increase their availability to lower-income folks.

Will these new laws help retirees?

This is where the future gets hazy. Legal challenges or post-election changes could end up altering much of what’s in the Inflation Reduction Act. And much depends on the actual execution of the new rules.

The new rules could also mean premium changes as insurance companies figure out their models.

Since health care is one of the biggest unknown costs in retirement, lowering drug costs and making spending more predictable for Medicare recipients could absolutely have a positive impact on millions of people.

Will the Inflation Reduction Act help the economy?

Whether the overall bill will live up to its name, lower inflation, and have a net positive impact on the economy also remains to be seen.

Some economists project that the bill will end up modestly reducing inflation and trimming the federal budget over the next decade.5

Others are concerned about the impact of the new corporate tax rules written into the legislation.

As is usually the case, time will tell.

To your health,
Dr. Chris

 

1 – https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1109390/the-inflation-reduction-acts-impact-on-retirees

2 – https://www.kff.org/medicare/issue-brief/prices-increased-faster-than-inflation-for-half-of-all-drugs-covered-by-medicare-in-2020/

3 – https://www.kff.org/medicare/issue-brief/insulin-out-of-pocket-costs-in-medicare-part-d/

4 – https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/programs/vfc/awardees/vaccine-management/price-list/index.html

5 – https://www.moodysanalytics.com/-/media/article/2022/assessing-the-macroeconomic-consequences-of-the-inflation-reduction-act-of-2022.pdf

Chart source: https://www.kff.org/medicare/issue-brief/how-will-the-prescription-drug-provisions-in-the-inflation-reduction-act-affect-medicare-beneficiaries/

Bulls back in town? (Is it over yet?)

Is the bear market over?

Let’s discuss.

Good news first: inflation might be cooling off. Maybe.

The latest inflation data suggests we could be moving past the peak in some areas.

  • Gas prices are down1
  • Freight prices are down2
  • Overall measures of inflation are off their highs3

Great, right?

The data is certainly pointing in the right direction, but it’s too soon to celebrate.

Why? Well, it’s just not enough data yet to call it a sustained trend.

We’re also seeing signs that persistent inflation has led consumers to shift their spending.

That could make inflation improvements uneven AND result in some winners and losers across different sectors.4

Winners could be travel and auto companies benefiting from pent-up demand.

Losers could be homebuilders and luxury brands hit by higher interest rates and shifts in shopping trends.

Are the bulls back in town?

Markets rallied for weeks on optimism about data and possibly FOMO – fear of missing out on the action.5

Can we trust a summer rally? Is the bear market over?

Probably not. There are a lot of hurdles ahead, including the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes and earnings results from companies affected by those consumer spending changes, and election season.

One big question still remains: can the Fed bring down inflation without a “hard landing” that tips the country into recession?

Opinions are mixed, unsurprisingly. Some analysts think there’s a narrow path to success.6

Others think the risk of a recession is very high and that investors are underestimating how far the Fed will go to lower inflation.

Be prepared for more bumps ahead.

In other news, what’s in the Inflation Reduction Act for you?

Before we dive into the guts of the new legislation, we have one caveat:

While new deals always garner big headlines, it’s very possible that court challenges, post-election shakeups, or future negotiations could change a lot of the details inside.

That said, here are a few things to keep an eye on:

The Act mainly addresses two big areas: green energy and Medicare.

On the green side, the bill includes a slew of incentives to boost adoption of things like solar panels and electric vehicles.

However, many of the incentives may not be immediately available, as many of the specifics need to be figured out. Want a full rundown of the tax credits and rebates? Here you go.

On the Medicare side, the bill includes some interesting prospects for retirees:7

  • Starting in 2023, insulin costs for Medicare enrollees will be capped and vaccine cost-sharing will be eliminated.
  • Medicare prescription drug plans could see benefit changes in 2024 and 2025 designed to lower costs.
  • Medicare managers could have the power to negotiate (some) drug prices starting in 2026. That could mean cost savings for retirees as well as potentially lower premiums.
  • If you purchase insurance through an Affordable Care Act marketplace, you could qualify for an expanded premium tax credit through 2025 to help lower monthly costs.8

As always, we’ll have to wait for the legislation to mature before we can fully understand its total impact.

Overall, there’s a lot going on as we head into the fall and election season. Let’s not be surprised at more volatility or even a bigger selloff ahead.

 

1 – https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/gas-prices-dip-below-4-gallon-heres-why-still-could-bad-news-biden

2 – https://www.thetrucker.com/trucking-news/the-nation/trucking-freight-costs-us-wholesale-inflation-see-declines-for-first-time-in-2-years

3 – https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/july-inflation-numbers-consumer-prices-rose-85-year-year-summer-inflat-rcna42393

4 – https://www.investors.com/news/consumer-spending-us-economy-sputters-winners-losers/

5 – https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-blackrock-says-the-stock-markets-big-summer-rally-isnt-worth-chasing-11660579176

6 – https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/15/goldman-sees-a-feasible-but-difficult-path-for-the-fed-to-defeat-inflation-without-a-recession.html

7 – https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1109390/the-inflation-reduction-acts-impact-on-retirees

8 – https://www.kiplinger.com/taxes/605057/inflation-reduction-act-premium-tax-credit

Rollercoaster ride?

Markets rallied in relief on some better-than-expected data on Friday.1 It was a bright spot in what has seemed like a relentless parade of bad news.

But the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq still all closed out the week with losses.1

Is this the bottom of the bear market?

Maybe. Or maybe we’re somewhere in the middle with the loop-the-loops.

Let’s be prepared for volatility to continue.

Folks tend to focus a lot on the numbers, but emotions and behaviors may matter even more.

Knowing how to stick with a strategy during the loops and curves and uphills and downhills is a HUGE part of being a successful investor.

Market bottoms don’t come with a signpost. There’s no one waving a flag saying, “the worst is over, it’s all uphill from here!”

The end of a bear market looks an awful lot like the middle, and we don’t know if it’s the bottom until after we’re already past it.

That’s why it’s so important to stick to a strategy and not let the euphoria of a rally or the fear of drops sway our decisions.

Investors who bail during the downturns and miss the ride back up tend to lose spectacularly.

Why? Because the best days and worst market days have historically clustered.2

We don’t know how long this bear market will last. We don’t know if a recession is coming.

We do know this: you can’t enjoy the upside of the rollercoaster if you get off at the bottom.

Bottom line: it’s nice to get a reprieve from the selling pressure, but let’s be (emotionally and financially) prepared for a lot more volatility ahead.

That 70s economy

Markets gifted us with another burst of volatility and headlines are looking apocalyptic again.

Some folks might think it’s time to bail on markets for the summer, but I’ll tell you why that thinking is a mistake.

First, let’s peel back some layers to explore what’s driving markets.

The latest selloff was largely driven by concerns about how the pace of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes could affect economic growth.1

The Fed’s “hawkish” policy of rapidly raising interest rates to bring down inflation seems likely to take a chunk out of economic growth.

Is a recession or bear market on the way?

Those are risks we are prepared for.

While the Fed could manage to execute a “soft landing” and successfully lower inflation without triggering a downturn, its track record isn’t so good.

According to Schwab, 10 out of the last 13 rate-hike cycles resulted in a recession.2

Those aren’t odds I’d want to take to Vegas.

However, we are holding a couple of strong cards: a red-hot jobs market and steady consumer spending.3,4

Could those bright spots fend off a recession or downturn?

Very possibly. We’ll have to wait and see.

Are the 70s back?

No, I’m not talking about bell bottoms and platform shoes.

I’m talking about “stagflation.”

What does that even mean?

Stagflation is a buzzword combining “stagnation” and “inflation” and signifies an economy plagued by low economic growth, high inflation, and high unemployment.5

We saw it in this country in the 1970s during an oil crisis.

It’s hard to say if it’s going to happen again. It’s definitely a risk we (and the world’s economists) are watching.

However, there are two points that count against a vintage 70s stagflation scenario: 1) that strong jobs market and 2) inflation that might already be peaking.6

So, let’s not panic.

Here’s the bottom line (and you’ve probably heard me say it a hundred times): Market downturns, recessions, and volatility happen regularly.

We expect them.

We plan for them.

We remember that they don’t last forever.

We stay nimble and look for opportunities.

Though it looks like we’re in for a rocky summer, that doesn’t mean it’s time to hit the eject button.

Instead, we make careful shifts, especially in a rising interest rate environment.

The weeks ahead are very likely to be volatile. I’m here, I’m watching, and I’ll be in touch as needed.

Reassuringly,

Dr. Chris Mullis, CFP®, CDFA®

 

P.S. Need a jolt of good energy? Check out the Monterey Bay Aquarium’s Sea Otter Cam. If you’re lucky, you might catch a live feeding.

1 – https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/05/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

2 – https://www.schwab.com/resource-center/insights/content/when-levee-breaks-panic-is-not-strategy

3 – https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/01/inflation-forces-consumers-to-rethink-spending-habits.html

4 – https://www.npr.org/2022/05/06/1096863449/the-us-jobs-market-continues-its-strong-comeback-from-the-pandemic

5 – https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/economics/stagflation/

6 – https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/01/investing/stocks-week-ahead/index.html

Another wild ride

Markets bucked and sold off again.1

Should we be worried?

Not necessarily. These things happen pretty regularly, especially when headlines are negative.

In fact, you might recall that we kicked off 2022 with a big drop.2

So, let’s talk about what’s behind the latest wild market ride.

(Scroll to the end if you want to skip right to the reassurance.)

What led to the selloff?

Primarily, economic worries.1

Worries about new COVID-19 surges.

Worries about Ukraine.

Worries about the U.S. economy.

A report just came out showing the economy shrank by 1.4% in the first three months of 2022, surprising analysts who expected positive growth of 1.0%.3

Though a single quarter of negative growth isn’t a recession, it’s a sign that inflation, the Ukraine conflict, and the pandemic hangover are weighing on the economy.

Realistically, some form of a slowdown was probably inevitable, given the massive economic recovery of 2021.

And, the news isn’t all gloom. 1) This is a preliminary report, so we’ll see revisions later. 2) Economists still believe the economy has plenty of room to grow, particularly given the strength of the job market, so the economy could rebound. 3) Americans are continuing to spend.4

The economy is still strong, but it’s showing cracks. We’re watching closely.

You can see a theme: markets are being driven by worry and fear.

Is the selling done?

That’s impossible to say.

Could we see a bigger correction or bear market?

Absolutely. That’s very possible.

Corrections and pullbacks happen very frequently.

Here’s a chart that shows intra-year dips in the S&P 500 alongside annual performance. (You’ve probably seen this chart before.)

Take a look at the red circles to see the market drops each year.

The big takeaway? In 14 of the last 22 years, markets have dropped at least 10%.5

We’re dealing with a lot of uncertainty in 2022 and investors are feeling very cautious about the future.

However, that doesn’t mean that we should hit the panic button and exit our strategies.

Knee-jerk reactions to market turbulence can be VERY costly.

Questions? Concerns? Please hit “reply” and I’ll respond.

Thinking calm thoughts,
Dr. Chris Mullis, CFP®, CDFA®

P.S. A mental snack: A TED talk by psycho-economist Sheena Iyengar on how we make choices

P.P.S. Want to feel more grateful for what you have? Here’s another great TED talk on the topic by Benedictine monk David Steindl-Rast. If you watch it, hit “reply” and let me know what you think!

 

1 – https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/25/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

2 – https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/23/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

3 – https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/28/us-q1-gdp-growth.html

4 – https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/04/28/gdp-2022-q1-economy/

Archived PDF link

5 – https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/insights/market-insights/guide-to-the-markets/mi-guide-to-the-markets-us.pdf

Better or worse? (big question inside)
Today, I have a big-picture question for you if you’re interested.

While absorbing the recent news, we can be forgiven for thinking that the world is going off the rails.

There’s a global pandemic, worrying inflation, atrocities in Ukraine, and “unprecedented” developments everywhere.

A fear arises that it’s all getting worse, somehow.

If we feel that way, we’re not alone. A lot of people feel that way.1

So, let’s ask the big question: Is the world getting worse? Or is it actually getting better?

Honestly, I’m not sure that question can really be answered.

Why?

I imagine that you’ve heard the statistics of how far the world has come in terms of measurable progress (it’s pretty amazing).

But, though it might be nice to know that global poverty is down or that the rate of people killing people is historically low, that’s not really helpful when you’re getting gouged at the pump, your kid is home sick, and you’re seeing images of ruined lives on the news.

For the first time in human history, we can instantly communicate with folks thousands of miles away and see what they’re doing.

We have access to real-time news from everywhere in the world, and because of how the news is constructed, it’s nearly always the bad stuff that gets our attention.

Most of us spend hours each day consuming media of one kind or another.2

The question we ask each other has changed from “how are things in your neck of the woods” to “have you heard about {crisis of the moment}?”

We’re human. We live our lives one day at a time inside a fairly small bubble. And that bubble is easily influenced by daily hassles, media filters, and our own outlook on the world.

So, what do we do? How do we combat the existential dread and pessimism?

I think this is a serious and important question, by the way.

We need to know how to put things into perspective, for ourselves, for the children and young people who look to us for guidance, and for our loved ones who might need a boost.

A few ideas:

Invest time in relationships with the people we love.

Be selective in the news and media we consume.

Follow our faith if we have one.

Look for beautiful moments and treat them with awe (like that little girl at the fair in the photo above).

Make art, make music, and build something beautiful.

Volunteer, donate, and be the change we want to see.

What do you think? Any advice for keeping it positive?

I’ll close by asking you: How are you doing?

What’s going on in your neck of the woods?

Positively,
Dr. Chris

P.S. Why is a practice of positivity so important? Well, it keeps us from making fear-based decisions, for one. I also think it helps us make our little corner of the world better. Johns Hopkins University thinks it might be a big deal for our health.3

1https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/03/21/looking-ahead-to-2050-americans-are-pessimistic-about-many-aspects-of-life-in-u-s/

2https://www.statista.com/topics/1536/media-use/

3https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/wellness-and-prevention/the-power-of-positive-thinking

 

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Chris Mullis, Ph.D., CDFA®
NorthStar Capital Advisors
704-350-5028 ext 7
chrismullis@nstarcapital.com
521 East Blvd, Charlotte, NC 28203
RetireNorth.com
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Celebrating 16 Years • 2006-2022

 
Hard times (hope inside)
Hard times are here.

(I’m still optimistic, though; I’ll explain why at the end.)

People are dying, running for their lives, and watching everything they’ve worked for go up in literal flames.

And, because of technology, we’ve got a front-row seat in real time.

Energy prices are spiking, markets are gyrating.

Oh yeah, there’s still a pandemic.

Sometimes, it’s just one thing after another and everything all at once.

What do we do? How do we deal with it?

I think it depends on the day.

Some days, we’re overwhelmed and struggle to make progress.

Other days we press on and focus on putting one foot in front of the other.

Some of us look to our faith for guidance.

We also remember that humans are resilient creatures who have survived and thrived through some terrible times.

We remember that we’re not alone.

You’re not alone. I’m not alone. They’re not alone.

We reach out for help on our bad days and offer support on our good days.

We volunteer, donate, speak up, and take action.

I was a big Mr. Rogers fan growing up.  He had me from the moment I saw “Trolley” because I lived and breathed trains as a child.

There’s a quote by Mr. Rogers that often shows up during crises:

“When I was a boy and I would see scary things in the news, my mother would say to me, ‘Look for the helpers. You will always find people who are helping.’”

As adults, we’ve got a greater burden to carry—we must become the helpers.

I think the secret to getting through is kindness and love.

If we look closely, we can find it happening right now.

Volunteers leaving strollers for Ukrainian families who will need them when they arrive in Poland and Slovakia.1

Residents of a refugee camp throwing a birthday party for a 7-year-old girl.2

Berliners welcoming refugees in train stations and opening their homes.3

Groups greeting Afghan refugees with open arms and housewarming gifts in Detroit.4

In the midst of everything, we can offer each other kindness, encouragement, and support.

Hoping for peace,
Dr. Chris

P.S. Looking for ways to help Ukrainians? Here are a few.

P.P.S. Markets are reacting to energy prices, economic concerns, and uncertainty as we’d expect: with extreme volatility.  Remember the stock market is like yo-yoing while climbing Mount Everest — lots of ups and downs in the short term, overlaid on a relentless uptrend. If you have questions about what you should or should not be doing around your portfolio, let’s talk about that!

1https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2022/03/07/strollers-ukraine-polish-train-station/9412895002/

2https://www.newsweek.com/refugee-camp-throws-birthday-celebration-7-year-old-ukrainian-girl-1685113

3https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60611188

4https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/wayne-county/2022/03/05/resettled-afghan-refugees-given-housewarming-kits-faith-groups/9323799002/

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Chris Mullis, Ph.D., CDFA®
NorthStar Capital Advisors
704-350-5028 ext 7
chrismullis@nstarcapital.com
521 East Blvd, Charlotte, NC 28203
RetireNorth.com
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Celebrating 16 Years • 2006-2022

 
What comes next?

Some perspective on the grim situation in Ukraine and what could happen in markets.

(Need a break from it? Scroll down to the P.S.)

The invasion of Ukraine is a serious and scary escalation in tensions between Russia, Europe, and the United States.

Before we dive in to what it could mean, let’s take a moment to think about the many folks who are suffering and dying as well as the ordinary Russians who will suffer from sanctions, instability, and economic damage.

We hope and pray that diplomacy can end this crisis for all our sakes.

Let’s talk about some possible implications for markets and our economy.

Given Ukraine’s critical pipelines and Western sanctions on Russia, the crisis may lead to higher energy prices, which will trickle down to higher pump and heating fuel costs.1

Sustained price increases could hamper the Federal Reserve’s effort to control inflation, so we’re keeping an eye on that as well.

What could happen in markets?

Extreme volatility, as we’ve already experienced, is very likely. Another correction (or even a bear market) is definitely possible.

What does history teach us about market reactions to geopolitical shocks?

History shows that stocks usually recover quickly from geopolitical crises.

We’ll add a disclaimer that the future doesn’t perfectly match the past — but it often rhymes.

Let’s take a look at some examples from other invasions and wars.2

Here’s the key takeaway: short-term, markets usually react badly. However, a year later, markets have historically recovered.

Will they always? In every case? That’s impossible to say.

But, the study of 29 geopolitical events since WWII shows a general trend toward short-term losses in the first weeks and longer-term gains over months.2

A note: “geopolitical event” is a very antiseptic phrase for horrible things like bombings, wars, invasions, attacks, and really fails to encompass the full cost in human misery.

Let’s never forget the truth behind the numbers.

We can’t know or control what happens next. We can hope, pray, donate, and speak out.

And we can focus on what’s in our control: Ourselves, our actions and reactions, and our strategies for uncertain times.

Let’s hug the people we love extra tightly today and be very grateful for our blessings.

Be well,
Dr. Chris & the NorthStar Team

 

P.S. Tired of war and bad news? Need a break? We’ve got two TED talks for you:
1) A dive into research that shows how our brains might be wired for optimism
2) How to forge meaning from challenging moments.

P.P.S. Looking for ways to donate to Ukrainians? Here’s a roundup of some organizations doing good work.

 

1 – https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/27/business/oil-prices-russia-ukraine.html
2 – https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/live-markets-what-history-says-about-geopolitics-market-2022-02-18/

An exogenous variable
Not 48 days ago, I wrote the following in our annual letter to clients and friends:

“In general, I think it most likely that in the coming year, (a) the lethality of the virus continues to wane, (b) the world economy continues to reopen, (c) corporate earnings continue to advance, (d) the Federal Reserve begins draining excess liquidity from the banking system with some resultant increase in interest rates, (e) inflation subsides somewhat, and (f) barring some other exogenous variable – which we can never really do – equity values continue to advance, though at something less (and probably a lot less) than the blazing pace at which they’ve been soaring since the market trough of March 2020…Please don’t mistake this for a forecast. [If it’s wrong] my recommendations to you will be unaffected, since our investment policy is driven entirely by the plan we’ve made, and not at all by current events (emphasis added).”

Exogenous means the variable or the event is coming from outside.

Russia/Ukraine is the exogenous variable du jour. The investment policy of goal-focused, plan-driven, long-term stock investors, like you and I, should be unaffected by it.

That concludes this memo’s core message; everything else is commentary.

Under the heading of commentary:

(1)  The Russia/Ukraine event has nothing to do with “democracy.” It has to do with energy, which is the lifeblood of the Russian kleptocracy. Russia supplies 40% of Europe’s heating fuel, in the form of natural gas. One of the two aging pipelines through which the gas is transmitted runs through Ukraine, which had lately evinced a growing yearning for increased ties to the West. Putin could never allow this. (See Lukas Alpert’s essay on MarketWatch.)

(2)  At around 4,100, the S&P 500 has experienced a drawdown about equal to its average since 1980.

(3)  At the risk of making a political statement: A great deal of good can come out of all this, if and to the extent that it leads both the United States and Europe to a significant reappraisal of their respective energy policies, to the detriment of Putin’s Russia.

My thoughts and heart are with the people of Ukraine and our US military personnel deployed in Eastern Europe.

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Chris Mullis, Ph.D., CDFA®
NorthStar Capital Advisors
704-350-5028 ext 7
chrismullis@nstarcapital.com
521 East Blvd, Charlotte, NC 28203
RetireNorth.com
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Celebrating 16 Years • 2006-2022

 
When whales fight

As we consider the tensions driving recent market movements, a Korean folk saying seems apt:

“When whales fight, the shrimp’s back is broken.”

The idea is that bystanders get hurt when big folks duke it out.

What are the tensions? Who are the bystanders?

Let’s discuss.

An invasion of Ukraine may occur in the coming days or weeks.

Or it might not. It’s really impossible to say.

The U.S. has closed the embassy in Kyiv and warned of a dramatic buildup of Russian forces on the border with Ukraine.1

It’s unclear whether Russia is willing to diplomatically resolve security concerns about Ukraine joining NATO.2

However, a ground war between NATO and Russia would be extremely damaging, so it seems (hopefully) unlikely that Russian troops would actually invade.

Then again, they might.

That seesaw between high tension and relief is likely to add a lot of volatility to markets as investors digest the latest news.

The Federal Reserve may aggressively raise interest rates to fight inflation.3

With inflation at historic highs, some Fed officials worry that the central bank’s credibility — AKA, their ability to manage inflation and employment — is on the line.

Rate hikes are coming in 2022, but how many and how quickly? That’s up for debate by the Federal Open Market Committee next month.

Fed “hawks” want to raise rates quickly to try to bring inflation under control and increase consumer confidence and trust.

Fed “doves” want to carefully raise rates and watch the data to avoid damaging growth or spooking markets.

These are big decisions with big consequences for us, the economy, and markets.

While FOMC meetings are often dry affairs, the next one looks to have as much drama as an episode of Succession.

We’ll stay tuned.

Bottom line: there are a lot of factors driving market movements, so we can expect to see plenty of volatility in the weeks to come.

Given the Fed and geopolitical tensions at play, a pullback or correction would not be surprising, either.

What can we do when we’re facing major events we can’t control?

Take a deep breath, be grateful for all the good in our lives, and focus on our strategy.

(And email us with questions or concerns.)

Let’s hope for peace and clarity in the weeks to come.

We’re keeping a close watch and will reach out as needed.

Be well,
Your NorthStar Team

P.S. Looking for a mental break? Here’s an interesting TEDx talk on “The Science and Power of Hope.” It’s given by Dr. Chan Hellman, whose research focuses on the psychological power of hope to overcome adversity and create change.

Let us know what you think!

1https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/13/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

2https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60379833

3https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/14/bullard-say-the-fed-needs-to-front-load-tightening-because-inflation-is-possibly-accelerating.html

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