3 Short-Term Strategies to Help You Win Big in the Long Term
Life is finally moving toward “normal” in Charlotte and across America. We’ve been in short-term mode so much… How do we build the long-term mindset we need to pursue long-term success?

In this video, we talk about some simple strategies you can use to switch from a short-term mindset to a long-term one. Click to watch!

You can watch it here.


Transcript:

Hi, I’m Dr. Chris Mullis with NorthStar Capital Advisors, and I’m here to help you balance your long-term goals against your short-term reality.

As we start to emerge from the COVID-19 pandemic, and life shifts back toward “normal” for many, I have a lot of people telling me that they’re struggling with thinking about long-term planning.

And that makes sense, since we’ve seen how quickly our long-term plans and goals can be turned upside down, and we’ve spent the past year or so dealing with a lot of short-term changes.

So how do we bring the long run into focus without getting derailed by the short run?
One way is by thinking of the long term as a series of short-term challenges, rather than one uninterrupted straight line.

Here are three simple strategies that you can use to train your mind:

Strategy #1 — Create a “future-you” mindset.

Who is future you? What do they want? How can you help them get there?

Embracing your future self as someone who needs you will help you create a better future with smart choices now.

Sound a little woo woo? It’s actually based on the concept of “future-orientation,” or embracing the idea that not only is the future unwritten, but that you can write it — especially for yourself.

And this idea can have real benefits. Studies have shown that future-orientation is a strong predictor for achievement, health, and happiness in life.

Strategy #2 — Prioritize flexibility over certainty.

As humans, we’re wired to look for certainty.
It feels good to think we have everything figured out.
Our instincts tell us to act quickly in the short-term to avoid the discomfort we feel with uncertainty.

But in a complex world with complex problems, acting quickly isn’t always the best move.
We often get better results in the long term by keeping a flexible mindset and experimenting with different solutions.

Strategy #3 — Recognize how emotions affect our decision-making.

We’ve all had times when we’ve acted in the heat of the moment.

Something makes us unusually happy or upset in the short-term, and we make a snap decision that has long-term consequences.
One way this plays out in investing is loss aversion, a cognitive bias that causes us to focus so hard on avoiding losses that we often miss out on the big picture, long-term benefits of our investment strategy.

The reason you pay a professional to look after your financial life is so you can share your worries and have someone help you take action — both in the short term and the long term — so that ultimately you get to do the things you love most in life.

Which of these approaches — “future-you” mindset, prioritizing flexibility, and recognizing emotions — which of these would make a positive impact on your success?

Send me a message and let me know! I read and respond to all emails.

Thanks for watching and Take Care.

 

 
2021 Midyear Report
As America continued to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic in the first half of 2021, the economy and the equity markets made significant progress. My midyear report to you is, as always, divided into two parts. First is a brief recap of our enduring investment philosophy; second is my perspective on the current situation. As always, I welcome your questions and your comments.

General Principles

You and I are long-term, goal-focused, planning-driven equity investors. We’ve found that the best course for us is to formulate a financial plan — and to build portfolios — based not on a view of the economy or the markets, but on our most important lifetime financial goals.

Since 1960, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index has appreciated approximately 70 times; the cash dividend of the Index has gone up about 30 times. Over the same period, the Consumer Price Index has increased by a factor of nine. At least historically, then, mainstream equities have functioned as an extremely efficient hedge against long-term inflation and a generator of real wealth over time. We believe this is more likely than not to continue in the long run, hence our investment policy of owning successful companies rather than lending to them.

We believe that acting continuously on a rational plan — as distinctly opposed to reacting to current events — offers us the best chance for long-term investment success. Simply stated: unless our goals change, we see little reason to alter our financial plan. And if our portfolio is well-suited to that plan, we don’t often make significant changes to that, either.

We do not believe the economy can be consistently forecast, nor the markets consistently timed. We’re therefore convinced that the most reliable way to capture the long-term return of equities is to ride out their frequent but ultimately temporary declines.

The performance of our equity portfolios relative to their benchmark is irrelevant to investment success as we define it. (It is also a variable over which we ultimately have no control.) The only benchmark we care about is the one that indicates whether you are on track to achieve your financial goals.

Current Observations

The American economy continued its dramatic recovery in the first half of 2021, spurred by (a) the proliferation of effective vaccines against COVID-19 and the retreat of the pandemic, (b) massive monetary and fiscal accommodation, and (c) its own deep fundamental resilience, which ought never to be underestimated.

The S&P 500 ended the first half at 4,297, an increase of 14.4% from its close at the end of 2020. Coming into the year, the consensus earnings estimate for the Index in 2021 was around $165; as I write, the consensus for the next 12 months has reached $200, and is still being raised.

The economy continues to struggle with supply chain imbalances, as well as with a historic mismatch between the number of job openings available and continued high (though rapidly declining) unemployment. The chattering class of pundits and financial journalists continues to speculate on when these blockages will clear; to long-term investors like us, the key is our belief that they will, in the fullness of time.

We are still in the midst of an unprecedented experiment in both fiscal and monetary policy; the outcome remains impossible to forecast. The possibility that we’ve overstimulated the economy was highlighted this spring by a significant resurgence in inflation. But as the first half ended, statements by Fed Chair Powell and Governor Bullard indicated a keen awareness of this risk, and a readiness to act against it. The markets evidently took these gentlemen at their word, as inflation hedges like gold and oil sold off, the equity market pulled back modestly, and the yield on the bellwether 10-year U.S. Treasury note retreated to the area of 1.5%. One does not want to read too much into short-term phenomena like these; suffice to say that the Fed appears acutely cognizant that its credibility is almost existentially on the line here.

There is also the issue of the Biden administration’s fairly radical tax proposals with respect to capital gains and estates. The best that can be said on this subject is that, as the first half ended, the momentum behind these initiatives seemed to be ebbing. But the political climate remains as inimical to capital (and capitalists) as it’s been in quite a while.

Nonetheless, for investors like us, I think the most important economic report of this whole six-month period came just a few days ago. It was that household net worth in this country spiked 3.8% in the first quarter of 2021 — to $136.9 trillion — propelled by broad gains in the equity market and in home prices. Even more important, perhaps, is the fact that the ratio of household debt to assets continued to fall, and is now back down to about where it was 50 years ago.

The consumer powers this economy, and the consumer has rarely carried more manageable debt levels relative to disposable income — and has simply never been holding more cash — than he/she does today. In June, the National Retail Foundation raised its outlook yet again; it now expects retail sales to grow 10.5% to 13.5% (that is, $4.44 trillion to $4.56 trillion) year over year. Just this past month, the retail giant Target raised its dividend by a whopping 32%.

On February 19, 2020 — the market’s peak just before the pandemic took hold — the S&P 500 closed at 3,386. It then proceeded to decline 34% in 33 days, amid the worst global health crisis in a century. But if you bought the Index at that epic top, and were still holding it on June 30 of this year, your total return with reinvested dividends has been close to 28%. I’ve never seen — and don’t expect to ever see again — a more vivid demonstration of Peter Lynch’s dictum that “The real key to making money in stocks is not to get scared out of them.”

I believe I was put here for just that reason: to help you not get scared out of them.

Sincerely,
Chris

Chris Mullis photo
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Chris Mullis, Ph.D., CDFA®
NorthStar Capital Advisors
704-350-5028
chrismullis@nstarcapital.com
521 East Blvd, Charlotte, NC 28203
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Celebrating 15 Years • 2006-2021

 
A tale of two infrastructure deals
It appears we have a deal on infrastructure.

Maybe.

After weeks of grandstanding, posturing, and wrangling, it looks like a bipartisan infrastructure deal that both parties can live with is in the works.

Good news: no tax hikes. But you’ll want to read on because we’re not out of the woods yet.

The bipartisan deal (can’t call it a bill yet) finds $579 billion of common ground from President Biden’s original $2.25 trillion American Jobs Plan.1

It focuses on “hard” infrastructure — such as roads, bridges, rail, and public transit projects, as well as electric vehicle infrastructure and broadband internet — that both sides can agree on.

So, is it a done deal?

Not even close.

The current framework represents a compromise that makes no one happy, and there’s still a fair bit to hammer out (including how to pay for the plan).

The deal still needs to gather broad support in both parties, especially among those who think it’s too little or too much and might seek to scuttle the whole thing.

Fortunately, it doesn’t look like higher taxes are part of the deal. Though the math looks a little fuzzy from where I’m standing, it looks like funding sources could include repurposed pandemic funding, better IRS enforcement, and possibly digging through couch cushions for spare change (joking).1

So, that means my taxes won’t go up, right?

Not so fast.

There’s another bill on the table. And it’s a $1.8 trillion doozy.2

The second bill, called the American Families Plan, focuses on so-called “human” infrastructure and contains many Democrat-backed priorities like childcare, climate change, health care, and education.3

Basically, the initiatives that couldn’t get Republican support are packaged up in a separate bill.

It looks like the Democrats are planning to pass that bill through a reconciliation process that doesn’t require Republican support to get through Congress.

Inside that bill are the tax increases we’ve been on the watch for. Higher taxes on wealthy individuals and corporations, as well as eliminating the step-up basis on inherited assets, among other tax hits.4

Since the bills are independent, it’s really not certain yet which (if either) will pass. Or when.

Will one pass and not the other? Will both grind to a halt this summer?

Hard to say.

What does all this mean?

That depends on where you’re standing. For industries expecting to benefit, it means an influx of tasty government cash.

For those worried about America’s crumbling infrastructure, it represents some critical moves in the right direction.

For those concerned about the spending spree the government’s been on (and how we’re going to pay for it all), it’s another brick in a looming wall of debt that will eventually come due.

Bottom line, it’s not nearly over yet. I strongly suspect the coming weeks will be full of more politicking, more grandstanding, and more arm twisting.

I’ll reach out when I know more.

Now, go enjoy your summer. You deserve it.

Infrastructurally yours,
Chris

Chris Mullis, Ph.D., CDFA®
Founding Partner & Financial Planner

Reduce Taxes. Invest Smarter. Optimize Income

AskNorthStar.com       (704) 350-5028

1https://news.bloomberglaw.com/environment-and-energy/a-win-for-roads-and-no-tax-hikes-infrastructure-deal-takeaways
2 https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/28/biden-american-families-plan-whats-in-it.html
3https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/27/infrastructure-gop-senators-say-deal-can-go-forward-after-biden-walkback-.html
4https://taxfoundation.org/american-families-plan/
Chart source: https://news.bloomberglaw.com/environment-and-energy/a-win-for-roads-and-no-tax-hikes-infrastructure-deal-takeaways

 
Getting it wrong?
What happens when the predictions are wrong?

Is it time to panic?

Is it time to ditch our strategy?

It’s a fascinating question because it cuts right down to the question of what it means to live in an uncertain world.

Humans are wired to dislike uncertainty.1

And we’re used to a fair amount of (often unwarranted) certainty in the models and paradigms we use to make sense of the world around us.

We’re so attracted to certainty that when economic forecasts and reports come back with “surprises” (also known as being wrong) we tend to freak out.

Especially when the news trumpets every weird bit of data like it’s a huge deal.

Over the last few weeks and months, we’ve had a lot of “surprise” reports.

Inflation surprises.

Job market surprises.

Housing market surprises.

Economic growth surprises.

Why are we so surprised?

In a year like 2021, the margin for error is greater than ever.

Predictions, forecasts, and expectations that are based on averages, trends, and other backward-looking methods are ill-equipped to handle the outliers and oddities of a year that’s unlike anything that has come before.

When in history has an entire global economy simply come to a halt?

And then arthritically restarted with many creaks and groans.

To my knowledge, it’s never happened before.

Of course the data is going to have surprises.

We’re probably going to get a lot of things wrong.

I can’t wait for the best-sellers written about all the ways we could have done things better.

So. What does that mean for you and me?

Crystal balls are out of commission.

Surprise is the order of the day, the week, and the year.

The models haven’t caught up yet (though that’s not stopping anyone from issuing very confident predictions).

So we’re being careful and looking out for the opportunities (as well as the hidden pitfalls) in these uncharted waters.

We’re cultivating patience, gratitude, and our ability to make good decisions with incomplete information.

To staying frosty,
Chris

 

Chris Mullis, Ph.D., CDFA®
Founding Partner & Financial Planner

Reduce Taxes. Invest Smarter. Optimize Income

AskNorthStar.com       (704) 350-5028

1https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/the-right-mindset/202002/why-uncertainty-freaks-you-out
Financial plans are worthless! (5-minute video)
Psst. Excuse me. I’ve got a secret.

I feel like I should be talking really quietly right now.

Are you ready? Here it is…

Financial plans are worthless!

My wife thought I was crazy when I told her this.  But it’s absolutely true, and I explain why in this short video.

You can watch it here.

Helping you stay on course,

Chris Mullis, Ph.D., CDFA®
Founding Partner & Financial Planner

 
$50 burgers (should we worry about inflation?)

How much inflation can the country afford before we’re in trouble?

Let’s discuss.

First, let’s get on the same page about some basics.

If you’ve noticed the price of a thing increasing over time (say, your favorite candy bar, postage stamps, or the cost of college tuition), that’s inflation in action.

Retirement planners and investment managers like us keep a keen eye on inflation because the whole point of investing our clients’ money is to keep up with or outpace the rising cost of living.

Economists use the broad increase (or decrease) in prices of goods and services across the country as a measure of economic health.

When inflation is stable and predictable, it’s a sign of a basically healthy, growing economy.

But, high inflation can quickly eat away at the purchasing power of your dollars, indicating that the economy might be overheated.

Deflation, or a decline in prices, can be a warning sign of a shrinking economy.

Recent data highlighted a surprise spike in inflation, indicating that prices increased faster than economists expected last month.1

Could this be a worrisome sign that the economy is overheated? Could $50 burgers be in our future?

Maybe.

On the other hand, could it be a temporary blip caused by the economy emerging from the pandemic-driven slowdown, complicated by supply chain issues?

Very possible.

Are the headlines catastrophizing?

They always are.

Let’s look at the data.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI), one of the major indexes economists use to track inflation, showed a surprising spike in April, igniting fears of runaway inflation.

Core CPI (which excludes the highly volatile categories of energy and food) showed a 0.9% increase in April month-over-month and 3.0% year-over-year. That’s much higher than the expected 0.3% and 2.3%, respectively.1

However, digging a bit deeper, we see that just two categories of goods (used cars and transportation services) accounted for the vast majority of the surge.2

That suggests things like flights and train travel suddenly became more expensive after a year of rock-bottom prices.

Is that runaway inflation or the normalization of prices as the world reopens?

We can’t tell from a single data point, but it’s not unusual to see prices increase in sectors that experienced a severe slowdown last year.

And the jump in used car prices? Well, many folks are turning to the second-hand market right now, in part because new cars are caught up in global supply chain bottlenecks for things like semiconductors and raw materials.3

Inflation is something to keep an eye on, especially in a year when so many of the usual variables have been thrown into flux. An ongoing surge in prices could hurt our wallets as our dollars buy less over time.

However, a single monthly spike following a very weird period for the economy is not cause for alarm yet; we should prepare ourselves for more odd numbers coming out of different parts of the economy in the weeks and months to come.

Shortages of everything from ketchup to gasoline could lead to price increases and fluctuations as supply chains attempt to disentangle from pandemic disruptions.4

Should we expect markets to react to inflation? How should we deal with it?

A negative market reaction in the short term is not surprising after weeks of strong performance. We should expect volatility ahead as we (and the economy) adjust to a post-pandemic world.

But remember, the stock market is a powerful hedge against inflation over the long term. During the last 90+ years, stocks have gained 9.8% per year while inflation has averaged 3% per year.

The engines of this elegant defense are the earnings and dividends of the great companies that we own which grow at healthy clips above inflation. 

Plus value stocks, which play a key role in our NorthStar Globally Diversified Portfolio, tend to perform better than growth stocks when inflation surges.

Whether it’s high or low inflation, never lose sight of this enduring truth:

  • All lastingly successful investing is goal-focused and planning-driven.
  • All failed investing is market-focused and current events-driven.
  • Successful investors act continuously on her or his lifetime plan.
  • Failed investors react continually to economic (inflation!) and market developments.


Until next time,
Chris

Chris Mullis, Ph.D., CDFA®
Founding Partner & Financial Planner

Reduce Taxes. Invest Smarter. Optimize Income

AskNorthStar.com       (704) 350-5028

1https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/12/consumer-price-index-april-2021.html
2https://www.chase.com/personal/investments/learning-and-insights/article/top-market-takeaway-05142021
3https://www.npr.org/2021/04/09/985860442/auto-industry-continues-to-struggle-with-supply-chain-issues
4https://www.cnn.com/2021/05/08/business/supply-chain-shortages-pandemic/index.html
Chart source: https://www.chase.com/personal/investments/learning-and-insights/article/top-market-takeaway-05142021

Past performance may not be indicative of future results. 

 

89% there?
Two things to discuss today: the economy (getting better) and taxes (going up?).

Let’s dive in.

The light at the end of the tunnel is getting closer and brighter.

  • The economy is booming and we’re getting much closer to pre-pandemic levels of economic growth.1
  • COVID-19 cases are declining, as the math starts to work for us (instead of against us as it did at the beginning of the pandemic).2 As more folks gain immunity, there are fewer ways for the virus to spread.
  • All U.S. adults are now eligible for a vaccine.3
  • Yesterday the first shot was approved in the U.S. for children paving the way for inoculations before summer camps and the start of the next school year.4
  • Restrictions are easing and areas are opening up for travel, meaning we can start planning those missed vacations and seeing loved ones again.

After over a year of uncertainty and dread, the future is looking up.

How are you feeling?

Do you share my optimism? Email me at chrismullis@nstarcapital.com and let me know your thoughts.

Things aren’t completely rosy, of course.

Major COVID-19 surges in India and Brazil mean millions are still suffering.5

Viral variants mean the pandemic may not be “over” for a long time and we still need to be careful not to undo all our gains.

Many folks are not experiencing the economic recovery and may need years to recover what they have lost.

However, let’s not let the work ahead take away from the progress we’ve made.

Let’s take a deep breath and appreciate how far we’ve come since March 2020.

… Deep Breath …

Now, let’s talk about taxes.

President Biden just unveiled a plan to increase taxes on high earners to pay for economic reforms as part of the American Families Plan.6

What’s on the table is likely to change as political wrangling continues, but here are a few things we’ve got to consider so far:

A higher top income tax rate of 39.6% (though it’s not clear yet who falls into that top tax bracket).

Raising the top tax rate on long-term capital gains to 39.6%. With the 3.8% Medicare surtax, that means the highest earners could pay a 43.4% rate on gains.

The elimination of the step-up basis for estates, meaning heirs could get stuck paying taxes on capital gains over $1 million (even if nothing has been sold) when they inherit.

This change could impact folks who, for example, inherit family homes that have appreciated in value. They might want to keep the home, but may not be able to afford the tax bill.

So, should I be worried?

Alert and informed, definitely. Anxious and worried, no.

Here’s why:

This is a proposal. It’s got a long way to go before becoming law and the details may change.

It’s still unclear how much impact these proposed changes will actually have. There are many advanced strategies that can help mitigate the impact of higher taxes. That’s why tax and estate strategies matter so much.

A study done by Wharton Business School suggests that tax mitigation strategies could help avoid 90% of the proposed tax increases on capital gains.7

Bottom line, the proposed changes are concerning, especially with so many details left to be determined, but it’s not time to panic.

We’re paying close attention to the process and will be in touch if we feel changes to your strategies are needed.

Be well,
Chris

Chris Mullis, Ph.D., CDFA®
Founding Partner & Financial Planner
Reduce Taxes. Invest Smarter. Optimize Income

AskNorthStar.com       (704) 350-5028

P.S. Have questions? I’m always here. Email me at chrismullis@nstarcapital.com or call me at (704) 350-5028.

1https://www.bbc.com/news/business-56932023
2https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/02/covid-gottlieb-says-cases-will-decline-vaccinations-monumental-achievement.html
3https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-19-vaccine-eligibility.html
4https://www.wsj.com/articles/fda-authorizes-pfizer-biontech-covid-19-vaccine-for-12-to-15-year-olds-11620681785
5https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-vaccine-updates-05-03-21/h_a0cbff31cf1168c6b850625a05a195b7
6https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/29/how-biden-tax-plan-would-hit-the-wealthy.html
7https://www.cbsnews.com/news/biden-capital-gains-tax-wealthy/
Higher taxes in 2022?

More spending = higher taxes?

That seems likely with a $2 trillion American Jobs Plan (that could eventually cost trillions more) on the table to bolster America’s crumbling infrastructure and invest in R&D.1

What could those tax hikes look like? Let’s consider the possibilities.

Though President Biden committed to not raising taxes on folks earning less than $400,000 per year, it seems hard to believe that he’ll be able to keep that promise with such a massive bill to cover.2

Also, it appears that married folks filing jointly could find themselves facing a big marriage penalty if they get swept over the $400k threshold as a household.2

One option on the table is a new auto mileage tax, which would raise money for highway infrastructure. Another is higher fuel taxes, which could increase what Americans pay at the pump.3 However, both proposals would be difficult to get through Congress, so they seem unlikely to come to fruition.

Some economists favor funding long-term infrastructure spending with ultra-long bonds and it’s possible Treasury Secretary Yellen will consider issuing 50-year bonds for the first time since 1911 to take advantage of low interest rates.4

Bottom line: we don’t know exactly what will ultimately come out of Congressional haggling; however, it’s smart to prepare ourselves for potentially higher tax rates in 2022.

What could those look like? While I don’t have a crystal ball, the following changes seem very possible:

  • A higher top income tax rate
  • A higher capital gains tax rate
  • A higher corporate tax rate
  • A lower estate tax exemption amount

We’ll know more as the final deal shakes out, but it’s clear these possibilities make 2021 even more critical for tax and estate planning.

In other tax news, the IRS has extended the deadline for making 2020 IRA and HSA contributions to May 17, giving folks an extra few weeks to get them in.5

Also, folks who already filed and paid taxes on 2020 unemployment benefits and are due money back under the recent rule change will automatically get refunds from the IRS, avoiding the need to file an amended return (unless they became newly eligible for additional credits or deductions).6

There’s a lot going on right now in Washington and we can’t know what the final resolution will be until all sides have their say.

However, it’s wise to remember that laws and circumstances change all the time. All we can do is stay on top and plan ahead as best we can.

Yours in tax news,
Chris

Chris Mullis, Ph.D., CDFA®
Founding Partner & Financial Planner

Reduce Taxes. Invest Smarter. Optimize IncomeAskNorthStar.com       (704) 350-5028

P.S. Questions? Concerns? Email chrismullis@nstarcapital.com

1https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/03/31/fact-sheet-the-american-jobs-plan/
2https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/18/biden-tax-plan-what-people-making-under-and-over-400000-can-expect.html
3https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-biden-tax-analysis-idUSKBN2BM14D
4https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/yellen-faces-major-hurdles-to-issue-of-50-year-bond-that-mnuchin-passed-over-62228383
5https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/irs-extends-additional-tax-deadlines-for-individuals-to-may-17
6https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/irs-to-recalculate-taxes-on-unemployment-benefits-refunds-to-start-in-may

 

This information is not intended to be a substitute for specific individualized tax advice. We suggest that you discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax professional.
Surprise is the Mother of Panic (3-minute video)
This is probably our most important share of 2021.

Tell us how well you appreciate this video and we’ll tell you how successful an investor you’ll be.

When an American’s portfolio suddenly declines 14% from a previous peak, he will never calmly announce, “I’m experiencing a perfectly ordinary, unsurprising, and above all temporary correction — indeed, merely the average intra-year correction of the last 65 years — and it will have no lasting effect on my long-term return.”

Instead, he screams, “I’ve lost 14% of my money, and there’s no end in sight!” as CNBC trumpets the apocalypse du moment.

Watch this video and be able to make that exceptionally calm and financially productive proclamation…”I’m experiencing a perfectly ordinary, unsurprising, and temporary…” 

You can watch it here.
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FROM OUR BLOG
Nothing on this website constitutes either the provision of investment advice or solicitation to provide investment advice. Investment advice can only be provided through a formal investment advisory relationship. Copyright © 2021 NorthStar Capital Advisors - Charlotte, NC. All Rights Reserved.