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Hard times (hope inside)
  • March 15, 2022/
  • Posted By : admin/
  • 0 comments /
  • Under : Live Well
Hard times are here.

(I’m still optimistic, though; I’ll explain why at the end.)

People are dying, running for their lives, and watching everything they’ve worked for go up in literal flames.

And, because of technology, we’ve got a front-row seat in real time.

Energy prices are spiking, markets are gyrating.

Oh yeah, there’s still a pandemic.

Sometimes, it’s just one thing after another and everything all at once.

What do we do? How do we deal with it?

I think it depends on the day.

Some days, we’re overwhelmed and struggle to make progress.

Other days we press on and focus on putting one foot in front of the other.

Some of us look to our faith for guidance.

We also remember that humans are resilient creatures who have survived and thrived through some terrible times.

We remember that we’re not alone.

You’re not alone. I’m not alone. They’re not alone.

We reach out for help on our bad days and offer support on our good days.

We volunteer, donate, speak up, and take action.

I was a big Mr. Rogers fan growing up.  He had me from the moment I saw “Trolley” because I lived and breathed trains as a child.

There’s a quote by Mr. Rogers that often shows up during crises:

“When I was a boy and I would see scary things in the news, my mother would say to me, ‘Look for the helpers. You will always find people who are helping.’”

As adults, we’ve got a greater burden to carry—we must become the helpers.

I think the secret to getting through is kindness and love.

If we look closely, we can find it happening right now.

Volunteers leaving strollers for Ukrainian families who will need them when they arrive in Poland and Slovakia.1

Residents of a refugee camp throwing a birthday party for a 7-year-old girl.2

Berliners welcoming refugees in train stations and opening their homes.3

Groups greeting Afghan refugees with open arms and housewarming gifts in Detroit.4

In the midst of everything, we can offer each other kindness, encouragement, and support.

Hoping for peace,
Dr. Chris

P.S. Looking for ways to help Ukrainians? Here are a few.

P.P.S. Markets are reacting to energy prices, economic concerns, and uncertainty as we’d expect: with extreme volatility.  Remember the stock market is like yo-yoing while climbing Mount Everest — lots of ups and downs in the short term, overlaid on a relentless uptrend. If you have questions about what you should or should not be doing around your portfolio, let’s talk about that!

1https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2022/03/07/strollers-ukraine-polish-train-station/9412895002/

2https://www.newsweek.com/refugee-camp-throws-birthday-celebration-7-year-old-ukrainian-girl-1685113

3https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60611188

4https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/wayne-county/2022/03/05/resettled-afghan-refugees-given-housewarming-kits-faith-groups/9323799002/

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Chris Mullis, Ph.D., CDFA®
NorthStar Capital Advisors
704-350-5028 ext 7
chrismullis@nstarcapital.com
521 East Blvd, Charlotte, NC 28203
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What comes next?
  • March 1, 2022/
  • Posted By : admin/
  • 0 comments /
  • Under : Market Outlook

Some perspective on the grim situation in Ukraine and what could happen in markets.

(Need a break from it? Scroll down to the P.S.)

The invasion of Ukraine is a serious and scary escalation in tensions between Russia, Europe, and the United States.

Before we dive in to what it could mean, let’s take a moment to think about the many folks who are suffering and dying as well as the ordinary Russians who will suffer from sanctions, instability, and economic damage.

We hope and pray that diplomacy can end this crisis for all our sakes.

Let’s talk about some possible implications for markets and our economy.

Given Ukraine’s critical pipelines and Western sanctions on Russia, the crisis may lead to higher energy prices, which will trickle down to higher pump and heating fuel costs.1

Sustained price increases could hamper the Federal Reserve’s effort to control inflation, so we’re keeping an eye on that as well.

What could happen in markets?

Extreme volatility, as we’ve already experienced, is very likely. Another correction (or even a bear market) is definitely possible.

What does history teach us about market reactions to geopolitical shocks?

History shows that stocks usually recover quickly from geopolitical crises.

We’ll add a disclaimer that the future doesn’t perfectly match the past — but it often rhymes.

Let’s take a look at some examples from other invasions and wars.2

Here’s the key takeaway: short-term, markets usually react badly. However, a year later, markets have historically recovered.

Will they always? In every case? That’s impossible to say.

But, the study of 29 geopolitical events since WWII shows a general trend toward short-term losses in the first weeks and longer-term gains over months.2

A note: “geopolitical event” is a very antiseptic phrase for horrible things like bombings, wars, invasions, attacks, and really fails to encompass the full cost in human misery.

Let’s never forget the truth behind the numbers.

We can’t know or control what happens next. We can hope, pray, donate, and speak out.

And we can focus on what’s in our control: Ourselves, our actions and reactions, and our strategies for uncertain times.

Let’s hug the people we love extra tightly today and be very grateful for our blessings.

Be well,
Dr. Chris & the NorthStar Team

 

P.S. Tired of war and bad news? Need a break? We’ve got two TED talks for you:
1) A dive into research that shows how our brains might be wired for optimism
2) How to forge meaning from challenging moments.

P.P.S. Looking for ways to donate to Ukrainians? Here’s a roundup of some organizations doing good work.

 

1 – https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/27/business/oil-prices-russia-ukraine.html
2 – https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/live-markets-what-history-says-about-geopolitics-market-2022-02-18/


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