The Fed is sending up a flare: the economy may be softening.

In a recent speech, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled that interest rate cuts could be on the table soon.

He expressed rising concern about the job market, noting a sharp slowdown in hiring and the risk of further weakness ahead.

And he’s not alone. Other indicators have started pointing in the same direction.

Taken together, these signals point to potential shifts in economic momentum that could affect interest rates, the markets, and your financial plan.

Let’s start with what has the Fed most concerned: jobs.

In his speech, Powell highlighted several worrying trends in the labor market. Over the past three months, employers have added an average of just 35,000 jobs per month. That’s a steep drop from the 168,000 monthly average we saw in 2024.¹

Long-term unemployment is rising too. Nearly 1.8 million Americans have been out of work for more than 27 weeks, up 20% from a year ago.²

In his words, “the stability of the unemployment rate allows us to proceed carefully,” but the recent data may “warrant adjusting our policy stance.”³

Translation: interest rate cuts are on the table.

But it’s not just the Fed chair who’s raising concerns about the economy. Other reports have started to echo that same message.

One of the most telling is the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index, or LEI.

Think of the LEI like an early warning indicator on your car’s dashboard. It pulls together a range of forward-looking signals from across the economy like manufacturing orders, building permits, jobless claims, and consumer sentiment.

No single indicator tells the whole story. But when multiple indicators start showing similar warning signs, it’s worth paying attention.

In July, the LEI declined for the sixth month in a row.⁴

The chart below shows how sharp LEI declines like this have correlated with recessions over the past two decades.

So, what does this all mean?

For the economy, it suggests a shift toward slower growth (and possibly a mild recession) is becoming more likely. If that happens, the Fed may cut rates to help cushion the impact, making it cheaper to borrow and invest. But it’s also a sign that economic momentum is softening, which can affect businesses and workers alike.

For your personal finances, lower interest rates could reduce borrowing costs on things like mortgages, credit cards, or car loans. At the same time, savings accounts and other interest-based products may see lower yields. Managing cash flow and debt wisely becomes even more important in an environment like this.

For your investments, things can feel a bit counterintuitive. A slowing economy (which often triggers rate cuts) can sometimes be good for both stocks and bonds. Why? Because lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs, which can boost corporate profits and investor appetite, especially in sectors like real estate and technology. Bonds may also benefit as yields fall and existing bond prices rise. That’s why the S&P 500 closed at record high last week.⁵

While none of this calls for immediate action, it does call for attention.

A well-structured financial plan can help navigate market shifts like these.

But if anything in your life has changed (or if you just want to stress test your strategy), it’s a great time to talk with your advisor.

 

Source:

1. The Federal Reserve, 2025 [URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20250822a.htm]
2. CBS News, 2025 [URL: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/jobs-employment-slowdown-layoffs-federal-reserve-jerome-powell-charts/]
3. The Federal Reserve, 2025 [URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20250822a.htm]
4. The Conference Board, 2025 [URL: https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators/]
5. Reuters, 2025 [URL: https://www.reuters.com/business/dow-notches-record-high-wall-street-cheers-powells-speech-2025-08-22/]

You’ve likely heard about this from every possible media channel.

A sweeping new tax law just hit the books.

It’s called the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” and it could represent a big overhaul to household finances.

Think of it like a home renovation. The 2017 tax cuts laid the foundation. This law keeps the structure, adds new features, and rips out a few that may no longer fit.

We won’t dance around the issue: This bill is controversial.

Some people love it. Others don’t.

Yet no matter how you feel about the politics behind it, what I want to break down in this email is how it might affect you.

Your taxes, your savings, your financial future.

Here’s a general breakdown:¹

Tax brackets will stay the same for now. Lower income tax rates and higher standard deductions are now permanent. In 2025, the deduction rises to $15,750 for single filers and $31,500 for married couples filing jointly.

State and local tax (SALT) deduction cap quadruples. It jumps from $10,000 to $40,000 in 2025, with annual increases through 2029.

Seniors get a bigger break. If you’re 65 or older, you may qualify for an extra $6,000 deduction, depending on income.

New help for families. The Child Tax Credit bumps up to $2,200. And every baby born between 2025 and 2028 gets a $1,000 “Trump Account” to start saving for the future.

Student loan system overhaul. Repayment plans like SAVE and PAYE are going away. PLUS loan caps are coming. The Grad PLUS program ends July 1, 2026.

529 plans just got more flexible. You can now use them for K–12 tuition (up to $20,000), educational therapies, and more.

Temporary perks, disappearing credits. New deductions apply to tipped income, overtime, and U.S.-made car loans. Credits for EVs and clean energy are being phased out.

It’s a lot.

This law is more than 900 pages long. Some changes start right away, others in 2026.

And while the headlines are political, the impact is personal. That’s the focus with this email.

The good news? You don’t have to navigate this alone.

With changes this significant, it can be helpful to review how they might affect your specific financial picture. Whether you’re adjusting your savings strategy or exploring how new tax breaks might apply to you, a conversation about your situation can help you stay ahead of these changes.

If you have questions about how this might impact you, we’re here to help walk through it. Just reach out and we’ll find a time to connect.

 

Sources:

1. Congress.gov, 2025 [URL: https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/1/text]

The S&P 500 just closed at another all-time high.

Cue the headlines. Cue the opinions.

And for many investors? Cue the hesitation.

When markets are setting records, it can feel like the worst possible time to put new money to work.

After all, nobody wants to buy at the top.

But here’s the thing: All-time highs are not rare.

In fact, they’re more like mile markers on a long journey.

Between 1950 and 2024, the S&P 500 has hit more than 1,250 of them. That’s over 16 new highs per year, on average.¹

So if you’re thinking, “Maybe I’ll wait for a better entry point,” you’re definitely not alone.

But let’s break it down…

Investing at all-time highs has actually produced solid results, often not far off from investing at any random time.

Here’s how those returns compare:

• 1-year holding period: 11.2% after all-time highs vs. 12.6% for all periods
• 3-year holding period: 10.9% vs. 11.5%
• 5-year holding period: 10.3% vs. 11.3%²

In other words, investing at a market high has been just slightly below average… still solid, and far from concerning.

There’s more.

Since 1950, the market has dropped more than 10% in the year following an all-time high only 9% of the time.³

Look out 10 years, and the S&P 500 has never ended that period more than 10% down after any of its record highs.

That’s a powerful reminder for long-term investors.

Waiting to invest because prices are high is like waiting to fill your gas tank until prices drop.

You might save a little.

Or you might make the road trip take longer than planned.

Yes, the market could pull back. But it might not. And sitting on the sidelines while prices climb can be more costly than it seems.

So, what could you do?

We’re not saying to chase the highs.

We’re not saying you should try to time the market.

And we’re definitely not saying these historical returns will play out the same way in the future.

But we are saying this:

History shows that investing at all-time highs has not been as risky as many investors assume. It’s been, at least historically, a reasonable time to invest. And for long-term investors, it has often worked out just fine.

If you’re not sure what to do next, let’s talk about your options.

You don’t have to guess.

You don’t have to go it alone.

And you definitely don’t have to let fear steer your financial plan.

“How long will this last?”

“Will markets bounce back?”

“Should I make a change now?”

These are some of the most common and understandable questions investors are asking right now. When the market takes a sharp turn, it’s only natural to wonder what comes next and how long it might take to feel confident in the markets and economy again.

Let’s start with where we are today.

Over the past two months, markets have fallen sharply. The S&P 500 is down more than 17% from its February highs, while the Dow has dropped over 7,000 points.

What’s driving the decline? It’s not one thing. It’s a mix of economic and political uncertainty.

Heightened trade tensions, aggressive new tariffs, public pressure on the Federal Reserve, and ambiguity around future rate cuts have all contributed. That cocktail of risk has pushed investors to the sidelines and sent volatility soaring.

But what everyone wants to know is, “When will things turn around?”

Of course, we don’t have a crystal ball. And you’ve heard this more than a few times before, but it’s worth repeating: past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. Markets don’t always follow historical patterns, and downturns can deepen before recovery begins. Still, looking at long-term data can offer some much-needed context and perspective.

For starters, markets tend to fall fast.

Historically, based on data from over a century of S&P 500 returns, adjusted for inflation and including dividends, it has taken as little as six months for a 20% decline to reach its bottom. Even deeper drops, like 40% or 50%, have often found their low point in under two years.¹

But getting back to where we started? That takes longer. Much longer.

On average, a 20% drop has historically taken about four years to recover. A 30% decline stretches to over seven years. A 40% drawdown? Nearly nine.²

These numbers reflect the real emotional challenge of investing, not just the drop itself, but the long, patient climb back to previous highs.

In other words, recoveries are less like flipping a switch and more like repairing a home after a storm. The damage can be done quickly, but rebuilding confidence, earnings, and momentum takes time.

I’ll admit, it can be surprising how long it can take for markets to fully recover.

Since the end of the Great Financial Crisis, we’ve been fortunate. U.S. markets have generally bounced back quickly from declines, sometimes in just months. That kind of speed can create a false sense of how recoveries typically work.

But when you zoom out and look at a broader stretch of market history, it becomes clear that fast recoveries are the exception, not the rule.

Over nearly a century of S&P 500 data, the pattern is clear. Deep declines often take years, not months, to fully heal. And for investors who have only experienced the post-2008 era, this longer timeline can feel unexpectedly drawn out.

That said, there is reason to remain encouraged.

Historically, some of the strongest returns have come after the most difficult periods. Following the 10 worst calendar years since 1975, the S&P 500 delivered an average return of 17.5% one year later, compared to its average one-year return of 9.7% over the same broader time frame.

Over longer periods, the results are even more striking: an average 56% return after three years, and more than 200% after ten.³

Now we know you’ve heard this several times already, but here it is again: Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. Markets don’t move in straight lines, and downturns can deepen before a recovery begins. Still, history provides helpful context, and it reminds us that long-term discipline has often been rewarded.

So what can you do right now?

Here are a few time-tested best practices we apply on behalf of our clients when markets turn volatile:

• Hunt for pockets of value: Look for areas of the market that may be undervalued or overlooked, where long-term potential outweighs short-term noise.
• Keep a diversified portfolio: Spreading investments across regions, sectors, and asset classes reduces your exposure to any single area.
• Avoid trying to time the market: Staying invested through downturns can yield better results than jumping in and out based on emotion.
• Rebalance when needed: Adjusting your mix of stocks and bonds can help manage risk and keep your plan aligned with your goals.
• Consider downside protection: In some cases, alternative strategies or specific investment products can help buffer volatility.

We can’t avoid market declines, but we can prepare for them, navigate through them, and stay focused on long-term outcomes.

Sources:

1. Shiller Data, 2025 [URL: https://shillerdata.com/]
2. Shiller Data, 2025 [URL: https://shillerdata.com/]
3. Market Declines: A History of Recoveries, 2025 [URL: https://www.mfs.com/content/dam/mfs-enterprise/mfscom/sales-tools/sales-ideas/mfse_resdwn_fly.pdf]

Chart sources:
Shiller Data, 2025 [URL: https://shillerdata.com/]

 

We know the news surrounding federal layoffs is unsettling, and if you’re feeling uncertain about what comes next, you’re not alone. Change like this can be overwhelming, but please know that you have options and support. Our goal is to help you navigate this transition with clarity and confidence so you can make informed decisions for yourself and your family. Why Is This Happening? The federal workforce is experiencing significant changes due to budget reductions, workforce restructuring, and a shift toward modernization. Recent reports indicate that the Trump administration may require agencies to submit layoff plans by March 13, 2025, as part of an effort to cut costs and streamline operations.1 While these changes may feel sudden, they are part of a broader restructuring of government agencies. What You Can Do Now While you may not be able to control these changes, you can take steps to protect your financial future: Stay Informed: Keep up with official communications from your agency regarding layoff plans. Know Your Rights: Review federal RIF procedures and understand what benefits and options are available to you. Update Your Resume and Skills: Consider refreshing your resume and exploring new skills that could open up additional career paths. Plan Financially: Now is a good time to review your finances, build an emergency fund, and look for ways to reduce expenses in case of job loss. Managing Your Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) If you separate from federal service, you may still have options regarding your TSP, such as adjusting allocations, rolling funds into another qualified plan, or keeping your account active.2 If you have an outstanding TSP loan, you may need to explore repayment options. In some cases, unpaid loans could be treated as taxable distributions.3 We know this is a lot to process, but you don’t have to navigate it alone. If you have any questions or would like to talk through your financial options, we’re here to help.

Sources: 1. Politico, 2025 [URL: https://www.politico.com/news/2025/02/26/trump-administration-federal-agencies-mass-layoffs-00206222] 2. Plan Sponsor, 2025 [URL: https://www.plansponsor.com/what-happens-to-federal-workers-thrift-savings-plan-assets-after-being-terminated/] 3. TSP.gov, 2025 [URL: https://www.tsp.gov/publications/tspfs29.pdf]

Like us, I’m sure your heart goes out to all those affected by the wildfires in Los Angeles. Perhaps you or someone you know has been directly affected. If that is the case, please reply to let me know how you’re doing.

Wildfires can be so devastating — taking an immense toll on families, communities, and the broader economy. While natural disasters like these can challenge us in many ways, they also remind us of the incredible resilience of communities and the strength we find in coming together.

While recovery takes time, we have witnessed how both people and economies can rebuild and emerge stronger. We certainly hope for this on behalf of all our friends in the L.A. area!

The economic impacts of the fires are also significant, and understanding them can help us prepare for what’s ahead:

• Economic losses: Estimated to be between $52 billion and $57 billion, these wildfires represent a massive financial impact that may ripple through the broader U.S. economy.¹
• Insurance industry: Insured losses are projected to approach $10 billion, placing pressure on insurance providers like AIG and Chubb, particularly those serving high-net-worth clients.¹
• Stock market: Utility and insurance stocks have already reacted to the fires, leading to potential volatility in these sectors.²

While these numbers reflect the financial toll, they don’t tell the full story of the lives and communities impacted. For those affected, there are resources and strategies to help ease the burden. We are encouraging everyone we know in the area to:

• Prioritize safety: Follow evacuation orders immediately if issued for your area.
• Reach out for immediate assistance: Connect with services like the Red Cross or local disaster relief organizations.³
• Apply for federal aid: Apply for recovery assistance through the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) at DisasterAssistance.gov.
• Explore tax relief options: Such as property tax relief and other benefits available to California residents.⁴
• Document damages for insurance claims to ensure you’re receiving the support you’re entitled to.

If you have any questions about how these events might affect you, your loved ones, your financial plan or even your future, we’re here to help. Feel free to reach out anytime.

In times like these, it’s clear how important it is to focus on what matters most: our health, our loved ones, and the communities that keep us strong.

Wishing you safety and peace,
The NorthStar Team

 

Sources:

1. Investor’s Business Daily, 2025 [URL: https://www.investors.com/news/top-california-property-insurer-earns-double-upgrade-from-goldman/]

2. Investor’s Business Daily, 2025 [URL: https://www.investors.com/news/california-palisades-fire-update-stock-market-impact/]

3. Red Cross, 2025 [URL: https://www.redcross.org/about-us/news-and-events/press-release/2025/red-cross-helping-in-southern-california-as-wildfires-force-thousands-from-their-homes.html]

4. California BOE, 2025 [URL: https://www.boe.ca.gov/proptaxes/disaster-relief.htm]

 

After months of simmering inflation reports, it looks like inflation finally eased slightly in April.¹

Are prices stabilizing? Can we breathe a sigh of relief?

Let’s dig a little deeper.

What’s inside the latest inflation report?

Economists typically look at two major inflation gauges: the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE).

In the latest CPI report, we learned that overall “headline” inflation rose 3.4% (year-over-year) in April.¹

Analysts also look at “core” inflation by stripping out volatile food and energy costs – that metric climbed 3.6%, the lowest since April 2021.

Why? Because food and energy have very volatile prices that can skew monthly data.

The chart below shows just how far inflation has come down since its 2022 peak.

Are we finally done with stubborn inflation?

I think it’s too soon to call since we’re just looking at one report.

Let’s see what the next few months show before celebrating.

We know inflation is still higher than anyone would like.

But, the April data is an improvement after months of hotter-than-expected data.

It could also be an optimistic sign that the Fed may still be able to achieve its 2% inflation target.

What does tamer inflation mean for investors?

Lower inflation points to a slowing economy and could give the Fed room to cut interest rates this year.

Traders have been telling themselves (and each other) that lower rates are coming in 2024 so they cheered the latest data.¹

Stubborn inflation is the one obstacle holding the Fed back from lowering rates so any nudge in the right direction often triggers a rally.

Other signs also point to a cooling economy.

Multiple indicators of labor market strength are trending downward, which suggests that growth is slowing.

Just 175,000 jobs were added in April, missing expectations. Earlier jobs numbers were also revised downward, which often means early estimates were too optimistic.²

Wage growth, another sign of a strong labor market, has also slowed significantly in recent months.³

Wage gains surged in 2021 and 2022 as employers struggled to attract workers but have been slowing down since.

So what does the latest data mean for you?

Markets are highly influenced by the timeline of future rate hikes this year.

That means news that the economy is slowing down may be treated as good news because it continues to build the case for lower rates.

On the other hand, signs that the Fed might keep rates high (or even raise them) may provoke more selloffs.

For long-term investors, these gyrations don’t make much difference to our goals and outcomes.

We’re more interested in trends and the bigger picture.

 

Be well,
Dr. Chris Mullis, PhD, CFP®

 

———-

Sources:

1. https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/15/cpi-inflation-april-2024-consumer-prices-rose-0point3percent-in-april.html

2. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

3. https://www.atlantafed.org/chcs/wage-growth-tracker

Chart sources: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCNS#0, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPILFENS, https://www.atlantafed.org/chcs/wage-growth-tracker

How did 2023 go for you?

Before the year ends, I like to sit down and review, thinking through what went well and what didn’t.

I try to mentally put the old year to bed before the new year kicks off.

Do you have a similar ritual you follow?

As we enter the final weeks of 2023, let’s take a moment to review some of the year’s major market and economic trends.

(Before I sign off, I’ll also pass along a few thoughts about what 2024 could have in store.)

AI became a major tech trend¹

After ChatGPT launched in late 2022, the AI space race took off, with major updates and models hitting the headlines nearly every month.

AI will likely continue to play a major role next year as the tech matures and more companies find ways to use it in their operations.

Though major banks failed in Q1, we survived the crisis²

Markets reeled in the spring when several banks, including big leaguer Credit Suisse, failed in rapid succession due to exposure to risky assets.

Though many worried the financial contagion would spread and kick off a bigger crisis, regulators moved quickly and were able to resolve the situation, protecting the overall financial system.

Washington’s financial squabbles just kept coming

The federal government teetered on the brink of shutdown multiple times this year as lawmakers used financial deadlines to play at brinkmanship.

Fortunately, a shutdown was averted each time.

However, the political games affected U.S. credibility, leading ratings agencies to downgrade U.S. credit and financial outlook, which could increase consumer borrowing costs.^3,4

Interest rates may have (finally) peaked⁵

The push-pull between high inflation and high interest rates continued to be a major trend this year.

However, now that inflation looks to be on a strong downward trend, the Fed might be done hiking and pivot to cutting rates in 2024.

The economy shrugged off recession fears and grew⁶

Despite a lot of worrying headlines, we didn’t actually see a recession in 2023.

In fact, the economy turned out three straight quarters of growth, powered by strong U.S. consumers.

Will the economy continue to grow? Or will high interest rates knock it off track?

We’ll see in 2024.

Markets gained ground despite a bumpy road⁷

Despite many struggles along the way, the stock market rallied in 2023, regaining a lot of lost ground since the market bottom in 2022.

Some analysts say we’re already in a bull market, while others won’t officially call it until we regain the previous market peak.⁸

What does 2024 have in store for us?

We’re watching a lot of trends.

With a contentious election season ahead, markets will likely find plenty of volatility.

A serious correction may be in store, especially if recession fears return.

However, despite what the overblown headlines will tell you, election cycles are just one of the variables that impact markets.

Economics, business performance, and plain old investor psychology all play a part in how markets perform.

Will that predicted recession show up in 2024?

Opinions are mixed, as always. Some economists see slowing growth next year with no recession, while others still believe a recession could happen.

Bottom line

We’re watching, preparing, and thinking ahead about how to position our clients for various scenarios.

Until then, I hope you have a relaxing and amazing end to your 2023.

Sincerely yours,
Dr. Chris

Looking ahead at a home purchase?

High rates convincing you to stay put as long as possible?

With mortgage rates pushing above 7%, you might think a reasonable mortgage is out of reach.

We’ve got some not-so-great news for you. Current rates aren’t actually that high, historically speaking.

They just look high because we’ve gotten used to low rates over the last few decades.

But here’s some good news:

You actually have more leverage as a buyer than you might think.

The reality is that many lenders and home sellers are losing deals as buyers get cold feet.

They’re increasingly willing to find creative ways to get your business.

Those pressures could work in your favor.

Here are three tips on finding a decent mortgage in a high-rate environment.

#1 ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS shop around for your mortgage

While it’s common for real estate firms to push you toward a lender they know and like to work with, mortgage rates can vary tremendously by lender.

That “dispersion” of rates for the same borrower means getting multiple quotes and comparing the total cost of the loan can save you thousands.

One study found that borrowers who compared at least four rate quotes could have saved more than $1,200 each year.¹

A quick way to compare loans is to look at the loan’s annual percentage rate (APR).

If two loans offer the same interest rate, but one has a higher APR, that means higher costs are baked into the details.

#2 Ask lenders to reduce or eliminate fees

Once you’ve picked a lender or two, take a look at the loan estimates and look for opportunities to negotiate.

You can even ask lenders to beat their competitors’ offers if you get everything in writing.

If you already have a relationship with a lender, you can sometimes leverage customer loyalty to try for a better deal.

In some cases, you can even ask the lender to add a no-cost refinance in the future, so feel free to negotiate beyond what’s already in the estimate.

#3 Ask sellers for closing credits or a rate buy-down

Closing costs can add a lot to your home purchase, so asking sellers for help covering those fees can make a big difference to your out-of-pocket costs.

In some cases, you might find sellers and homebuilders willing to offer a rate buy-down, in which they help you temporarily or permanently lower your mortgage rate.

A temporary buy-down allows you to temporarily pay a lower interest rate for the first few years of the mortgage.

A permanent buy-down allows you to permanently lower your interest rate across the life of the loan.

One note: A permanent buy-down would look less attractive if rates fall in the future, so it’s wise to compare your options and understand the tradeoffs.

Mortgage rates will likely remain high, so becoming a savvy negotiator can help save you thousands.

A word about recessions. Are we still going to see one this year? Let’s discuss. Why did so many people think a recession was coming? Inflation and interest rates, primarily. Historically high inflation has cast a pall over the economy since early 2021.1 In response, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates rapidly to bring inflation back down. Analysts worried those rapid interest rate hikes could trigger a “hard landing” recession.

But it looks like the dark mood is lifting. You can see in the chart above that inflation has been on a definite downward trend since last summer.2 That trend suggests that the Fed’s interest rate program has worked to tame inflation. So, will the Fed keep raising interest rates? Hard to say. The Fed raised interest rates again by a quarter of a point at its July meeting, but it’s possible that it won’t raise rates again if inflation remains on a downward trajectory.4 In fact, some analysts think that the Fed’s next move might be to lower rates in 2024. Does that mean a recession is definitely off the table? That’s far too optimistic. While the economy has been much, much more resilient than even seasoned analysts predicted, the accumulated effects of interest hikes may still deal a serious blow to growth. There are signs that the economy is weakening in some areas. For example, while American consumers are still spending, they aren’t buying as much stuff.5 That’s hurting the manufacturing sector, which has been in a slump for a while.6 Since consumer spending is worth about 70% of economic activity in the U.S. it’s an important indicator for future economic growth. Employment trends will also be important to watch. So far, the work of lowering inflation seems to have succeeded without damaging the job market. However, there are signs that the labor market may be weakening, so that’s something to keep an eye on.3 Bottom line: things seem to be looking up. The dark clouds on the horizon appear to be breaking and there are reasons to be optimistic. Optimistically, Dr. Chris