The Investment Answer …simple, but not easy?

Everyone wants to know how to earn the most money with their investments. We all want that, right? Well, the answer is so simple you can scribble it on a cocktail napkin. We made a short video to share that sketch with you and to give you the answer.  But be warned! There’s a paradoxical catch — “simple” doesn’t necessary mean “easy.”

Transcript:

Everyone wants to know how to earn the most money with their investments. We all want that, right? Well, the answer — The Investment Answer — is so simple you can scribble it on a cocktail napkin. That’s exactly what my friend and New York Times columnist Carl Richards has done for us in this sketch.

These are the factors that drive portfolio returns in the real world. The big circle on the left are the heavy hitters in rank order of importance. While the tiny circle in the bottom right reflects what doesn’t work.

By far the most influence is wielded by your behavior as an investor. That’s #1 by a wide margin. Do you take the long view with your investments? Do you understand that short-term volatility is normal? And, do you appreciate that pullbacks are temporary and the uptrend is permanent? The second biggest driver of returns is the percentage of stocks in your  portfolio. And then what kind of stocks? Small companies have outperformed large companies over the long haul. And, value companies — those priced at a discount relative to their intrinsic value — outperform growth companies over the long term.

What’s not part of the investment answer? What’s is not a path to investing success? Marketing timing, stock picking, CNBC, and your brother-in-law’s advice.

Our team of PhDs at NorthStar Capital Advisors created this data-driven and time-tested approach for carefully managing our clients’ money. It’s formed by observation, by academic research, and by our real-world experience of successful investing over the past 14+ years.

But knowing the answer doesn’t necessarily translate to the success that we all seek. Think about our health. We all know how to live a healthy life, right? Nutrition and exercise. There’s the answer — The Health Answer — But do we faithfully practice these day in and day out, year after year?

To quote Warren Buffet, one of the greatest investors of all time, “Investing is simple, but not easy.” There’s the crucial paradox. “Investing is simple, but not easy.”

We practice the principles of long-term investing that have most reliably yielded favorable long-term results. Those principles are: planning; a rational optimism based on experience, and finally — patience and discipline. If you have any questions about “the investment answer” or that paradox of simple but not easy? We would love to hear from you.

As always, thank you for watching, we appreciate the opportunity to support your financial success, and please be well.

Climate risk (+ baby jaguar)
Need some distractions from your day? Scroll down to the bottom of this article. There’s a baby jaguar.

But first, let’s talk about climate change.

The wildfires, hurricanes, and floods we’ve seen in 2020 (on top of an already-awful global pandemic) make this an important conversation to have.

Think climate change isn’t an issue? Well, the market consensus is moving in the other direction.

Insurers, government entities, and large investors are treating climate change as a major systemic risk to financial markets.1

Why? Because many companies and sectors are at risk from the costly heatwaves, wildfires, droughts, floods, and hurricanes that come with a warming planet.2

Do scientists agree on climate change? Yes, the vast majority of actively publishing climate scientists – 97 percent – concur that humans are causing global warming and climate change.

Most of the leading science organizations around the world have issued public statements expressing this, including international and U.S. science academies.3

So, what does climate change mean for investors?

Investors worry that climate risk could cause the prospects of certain companies to drop dramatically and ricochet throughout the financial system (much like what happened during the 2008 financial crisis).

But, unlike a global issue such as the coronavirus, the effects will play out differently around the country and the world.

Flood- or wildfire-prone areas could experience disruptions in business or find it difficult to insure homes and structures against damage.

Agriculture could be damaged by droughts and heat stress.

Already-warm areas could become too hot for comfortable habitation.

But, if the world goes all-in on sustainability too suddenly, there’s also a danger that the “transition risk” caused by new regulations or widespread shifts in energy use could also hurt markets or certain sectors of the economy.4

Well, what’s the good news?

There’s always hope. Many of the worst effects of climate change will play out over years and decades, not weeks and months.

There’s time for people, businesses, and governments to adapt. And humans are infinitely adaptable.

And there’s hope that the worst-case scenarios about a hotter world might not come to pass.5

I believe that optimism and pessimism can (and often should) co-exist.

I’m pessimistic about the climate path we’re on.

I’m optimistic that we will make the changes needed to get on the right path and steer away from the worst effects of climate change.

As a financial planner and wealth manager, I’m also staying on top of the growing body of risk models and research to help my clients chart a path through an increasingly uncertain world.

Ok, enough about climate change. Here are the distractions I promised.

Here’s a jaguar kitten learning how to swim.

And a four-year-old playing Mozart.

And a livestream of the jellyfish at the Monterey Bay Aquarium (with music!).

Deep breath. We can do this.

What do you think? Are you worried about climate change?

What do you think we should do about it?

Warmly,
Chris

Chris Mullis, Ph.D., CDFA®
Founding Partner
Financial Planning.
Wealth Management.
Since 2006AskNorthStar.com
(704) 350-5028

P.S. Markets have been volatile this month. It’s to be expected with so much uncertainty swirling about. We’ll reach out if I have anything critical to share.

1https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/08/climate/climate-change-financial-markets.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/21/climate/investors-climate-threat-regulators.html

2https://www.spglobal.com/en/research-insights/featured/the-big-picture-on-climate-risk

3https://climate.nasa.gov/faq/17/do-scientists-agree-on-climate-change/

4 https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/knowledgebank/climate-change-what-are-the-risks-to-financial-stability

5https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-worst-climate-scenarios-may-no-longer-be-the-most-likely/
Frothy? Bubbles?

 

We’re not writing about cappuccinos, champagne, or bubble bath.

We’re talking stocks.

You may have noticed that the shortest bear market in history is over, and markets recently hit new record highs.

Will stocks keep going higher? Will they stay volatile?

Is another bear market around the corner?

Maybe. Maybe not.

As is pretty common in these situations, market strategists are split.

Some see a new bull market that reflects a recovering economy.1

Others see troubling signs of a bubble that could burst.2

What could push stocks higher?

  • A market-ready COVID-19 vaccine or major treatment breakthrough that reignites optimism.
  • More government stimulus that supports consumers and businesses.
  • Good economic numbers that suggest we’re on the other side of the recession and the recovery continues.

What warning signs are flashing?

  • A rally mostly powered by tech mega stocks that isn’t reflected in the broader market.
  • Uncertainty around a November election that’s already contentious.
  • A possible “Minsky moment” market collapse fueled by the Fed’s easy money policy and unsustainable stock prices.3
  • Predictions of a second wave of infection that could provoke more shutdowns.

Bottom line, we can’t predict what comes next in the market and that’s okay.  Why? Because it’s all short-term “noise.”  History shows that all stock market declines are temporary interruptions in a perennial uptrend.

Since we no one can predict the future and no one can time the market, we’re focused on helping our clients stay fully invested which is the only sure way to capture the entirety of the market’s permanent advance.   Those powerful portfolio returns over the long term are the reward for staying calm.

2020 has been the strangest year of our lives (probably yours, too), and it’s foolish to try to time markets right now — or any time for that matter. If you’re thinking about big moves or feeling anxious about what comes next, please reach out. We’ll talk through your ideas or concerns.

1https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/08/goldman-sachs-10-reasons-the-bull-market-has-further-to-run.html

2https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/07/stock-markets-cio-says-tech-bubble-not-expected-to-pop-anytime-soon.html

3https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/03/markets-are-facing-a-potential-minsky-moment-collapse-strategist-says.html

7 Reasons Life Is Actually the Best It’s Ever Been

If you could be alive at any time in history, when would it be? Would you choose to live right now? Objectively, things aren’t easy for most of us right now. We’re facing social, economic, health, and environmental crises. With all the chaos of today, it can be tempting to lean on nostalgia and believe previous generations had it better or easier. And it can make us long for what seem like simpler times.

We may be too focused on the details to see the big picture. With a look at how far we’ve come, we can more clearly see how good we have it and how things, in many ways, really are getting better.

Consider these seven reasons life is actually the best it’s ever been.

#1 Life Expectancy

We’re living long than people have ever lived before.  Worldwide, more than 3 in every 4 people live to be at least 65 years old.  In the US, life expectancies for men and women have increased by more than 10 years since 1950.  That’s 10 more years the generations before us didn’t have to enjoy retirement, spend time with family, and take in more of the life’s wonders.

#2 Health Care & Medicine

Progress in medicine and health care is one of the reasons we’re living longer than ever. In fact, since 1980, MRIs have been invented, smallpox was eradicated, artificial hearts were developed, and the human genome was sequenced. These and other advancements have done more than just extend the length of people’s lives. They’ve also compressed end-of-life decline, meaning people live better lives longer.

#3 Poverty & Income

Globally, poverty rates have dropped by more than 50% since 2000. In the U.S., 8.4 million people have risen out of poverty since 2014. Also promising, average earnings in the U.S. have increased nearly 20-fold since the 1950s. Adjusting for inflation, some experts say wages have grown by at least 35%, increasing Americans’ purchasing power today when compared to 70 years ago.

#4 Technology

Technological advancements have changed so much of how we live and navigate the world. Since 1950 alone, new technology has brought us credit cards, artificial intelligence, the internet, electric cars, cellphones, and GPS technology. These and other innovations have made our lives easier, safer, and better. In fact, while new tech can save time and reduce effort, it can also help save lives.

#5 Crime

Despite the headlines, over the last 25 years, crime has dropped dramatically in the U.S. Violent crime, like assault, robbery, and homicide, has fallen by more than 51% since 1993. Over the same period, property crime, like theft and fraud, has followed the same trend, dropping by more than 54%.

#6 Working Conditions

Labor conditions and laws have come a long way since the early 1900s, creating safer environments with better protections for workers. From safety regulations and wage laws to discrimination and child labor laws, U.S. workers are better protected than ever. Beyond safety, workplaces are also more diverse than ever before. In fact, the U.S. workforce has seen a surge of older workers, minorities, and women over the past 25 years.

#8 Quality of Life

Quality of life has improved sharply over the last 100 years, with astounding improvements in living standards across all socio-economic divides. In fact, the average standard of living in the U.S. today would have been envied by even the greatest rulers two centuries ago.

By most standards, we’re living longer, happier, better lives than our great-great-grandparents did.

 

Could the election tank the market? 3 things you need to know

 

The 2020 election is around the corner, adding another layer of uncertainty to an already volatile market.

This could be one of the most divisive races we’ve seen. We can’t predict its outcome or what it could mean for the economy.

So how can we keep a level head and make informed decisions amid so much chaos?

We made a quick video discussing three things you need to know to help protect your investments in the face of the unknown.

Video Transcript:

This is the FOURTH presidential election that we’ve navigated in our 15 years of helping our clients reduce taxes, invest smarter, and live better.

And we’re here to help you stay level-headed — even in times of chaos. The 2020 election is coming up fast, and we’ve had worried folks ask us: Will it tank the market?

In this video, we’ll give you three things to keep in mind so you can plan for uncertainty.

2020 has been wild, to say the least. And the upcoming election could be one of the most divisive races we’ve ever seen. Add a pandemic, confusing market trends, and it’s no wonder people are worried.

But let’s trade panic for perspective. Here are three WAYS we can prepare for election uncertainty:

#1 — It’s normal for markets to be more volatile in election years. But remember, other factors are always at play, like business cycles, interest rates, corporate profits — and, of course, unpredictable events like the pandemic. So what can you do? Take a deep breath and focus on the post-election period. If you want, we can help you create a plan to pursue long-term success, no matter who wins in November.

#2 — Markets don’t like uncertainty, and they don’t like surprises. So we can expect things to be a bit bumpy in the short term, especially in the weeks before and after the vote.

#3 — Regardless of who wins, the government will be focusing on the coronavirus and the country’s economic recovery. We don’t know what this will look like or how quickly things will happen. With some preparation now, we can help you create a financial plan that accounts for this uncertainty — and you can be less worried about your portfolio.

Listen, we don’t have a crystal ball. But we do have the advantage of knowing what’s happened in the past, and being able to prepare for what could happen in the future. While the past can’t predict the future, we can look to it for powerful perspective.

If you have questions about how the 2020 election might affect your portfolio or you’d like to talk one-on-one, please reach out.

As always — we thank you for your support, we appreciate your engagmement, and please be well.

 

4 Tips for Rocking Your Personal Finances in College

Heading off to college is an exciting life transition and a major growth opportunity.  For many young people, it’s their first chance to manage their own finances.  Parents and students who invest a little time, planning, and partnership up front will reap profound benefits for life.  Follow these four tips to ensure that you have a great financial launch!

Open a checking account
Often the university credit union or local counterpart is a trustworthy, low-cost option.  Download the bank’s mobile app to make easy deposits and to check account balances.  Set automatic alerts to provide low-balance notifications or other helpful information.  Parents will likely find it convenient to link their bank account to their child’s to provide monthly allowances, etc.

Build a budget
Discuss sources of money and allowances. Know what money is coming in and going out by tracking it.  Sign up for Mint.com. Draft a simple spending plan and follow it. Don’t overspend. Don’t forget to budget for an occasional indulgence (within reason!). Resist temptations and impulse purchases. Learn to differentiate between wants versus needs. Expect to iterate a few times on your budget as parents and students adaptively learn the reasonable costs of college life.

Get a credit card
Credit cards are for the convenience and security of not having to carry large sums of cash.  Credit cards are NOT for spending money you don’t already have. If you can’t pay off the entire credit card balance each month, you are OVERspending. Avoid on-campus promotions that covertly proffer high-interest-rate cards via enticements of free t-shirts, tumblers, or other trinkets. Again, the university credit union is often a safe space. It’s ideal to have a checking and credit card at the same bank to make payments and management easier. Set alerts (e.g., purchases > $100) to flag transactions above normal spending patterns and protect against fraud.

Start Saving and Investing NOW
I know it’s hard, but having the foresight and the discipline, as a college student, to save and invest will be LIFE CHANGING.  No one ever told us this and it is our greatest financial regret.  Committing to saving even a small amount each month will add up quickly over time and instill a good habit of saving.   Compounding growth is magical — save $20 per month starting at age 18, invest it to grow at 8% per year, and keep doing this for 40 years.  You will have contributed $9,600, but your account will have grown to $64,422 thanks to compounded growth.  This is your “army of dollar bills” working and growing for you.  To get started, open a Roth IRA at a low-cost provider (e.g., Vanguard or Fidelity) and invest your earned income in an S&P 500 index fund. Long-term success is predicated on time in the market, not timing the market.

The budgeting, spending, and savings habits that students form in the coming months and years in college will likely establish their money management persona for life.  By cultivating this money-centric parent-student learning partnership, you’re making an investment in your long-term security and happiness.   

Should I refinance my mortgage? (It’s more complex than you might think)

If you purchased your house years ago, you might be wondering: is now a good time to refinance?

You’d think the answer would be simple: getting a lower interest rate on a loan is better, right?

However, the right choice really depends on your situation. And with the way fees and mortgage interest work, a refinance is often a bad deal for a homeowner.

We made a short video walking through the key questions you need to ask before jumping into a refinance.

You can watch it here.

Is the sky really falling?

I’m sure you saw the headlines:

“Record Economic Plunge”1

“Second-Quarter GDP Plunged by Worst-Ever 32.9%”2

“U.S. Economy Contracted at Record Rate Last Quarter”3

It sure sounds like the sky is falling.

Is it really? Let’s take a step back and put the news in perspective.

The coronavirus shutdown thumped the economy, businesses, and workers badly over the last two quarters, and it’s uncertain how quickly we’ll recover.

We knew that Q2 GDP numbers (Gross Domestic Product) were going to be horrible. In fact, in May, the Federal Reserve thought they were going to be even worse.4

So, ~33% down is actually better than expected.

But, despite the headline, we didn’t actually “lose” 33% of economic production last quarter. The Commerce Department reports data on an “annualized” basis to make it easier to compare; so, if you looked at it quarter-over-quarter, the economy lost 9.5% since Q1.5

That’s still an eye-watering blow to the economy, but it’s not an apocalypse.

The largest contributing factor to the economic losses was a steep drop in personal spending, particularly on services, which makes complete sense in a shutdown.6

Three points before we move on:

  1. This is an advance estimate for Q2, and we will see revisions as more data are finalized.
  2. Though this is the sharpest drop in the shortest time in history, it was caused by the shutdown, and we’re already climbing out of it.
  3. 63.8% of economists think Q3 is when we’ll see the recovery really pick up steam, and the current forecast is for 15.2% annualized growth this quarter.7

So, what’s up with markets?

I think markets are being driven by a few big trends.

In a previous note, I mentioned what a Nobel-laureate economist calls “FOMO mania” by investors who fear missing out on the bounce. I think that’s still in effect as investors continue to pile into stocks, especially in the tech sector.8

I also think the market is being supported by massive government spending and Federal Reserve intervention.

And thirdly, I think a lot of traders are betting heavily on the recovery. If states have to shut down again, the collective delusion may collapse and trigger a correction. We’re watching for that.

How long will the rally last? That’s anyone’s guess. I’ve seen many cheerful forecasts predicting new all-time-highs. I’ve also seen plenty dolefully predicting the next crash.

With so much unknown, they’re all guesses. Even in less-murky circumstances, the market gurus are only accurate about 47% of the time.9

So, since we can’t predict what’s going to happen in Q3 and Q4, we’re staying agile and focusing on the fundamentals of good planning.

I know, it’s a really boring answer. But that’s how we give ourselves the best opportunity for success in chaotic times.

Let’s talk about you.

How are you doing?

What kind of decisions are you making right now?

Can I help? Shoot me an email at chrismullis@nstarcapital.com and let me know.

Warmly,
Chris

Chris Mullis, Ph.D., CDFA®
Founding Partner
Financial Planning.
Wealth Management.
Since 2006

AskNorthStar.com
(704) 350-5028

1https://www.chicagotribune.com/business/ct-biz-us-economic-plunge-20200730-t25tj4pzdvcmrirdufstpla2nm-story.html

2https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/30/us-gdp-q2-2020-first-reading.html

3https://www.wsj.com/articles/us-economy-gdp-report-second-quarter-coronavirus-11596061406

4https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/nowcast

5https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/07/30/did-third-economy-really-vanish-just-three-months/

6https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/30/us-gdp-q2-2020-first-reading.html

7https://www.wsj.com/graphics/econsurvey/

8https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/28/paul-krugman-sees-mania-by-stocks-investors-driven-by-fomo.html

9https://www.cxoadvisory.com/gurus/#aggregate

10https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/30/apple-just-announced-a-stock-split-heres-what-that-means-for-investors.html

Are We Still in a Recession + Some Good News

 

So, what’s going on with the economy?

Well, hopes for the “V-Shaped” recovery economists wanted seem to be fading.1  Though businesses reopened and millions of people got their jobs back, millions more are still unemployed.2 And more layoffs are likely coming.3

Does that mean we’re still in a recession?

Technically, we won’t know until Q2 and Q3 economic data are released.

Best guess? We’re probably still in a recession.

The more optimistic recovery scenarios depended on containing COVID-19 infections so Americans could safely get back to business.

That…didn’t happen.

The question now is whether rising infection rates will put us in a “W-Shaped” double-dip recession, or a slower “L-Shaped” or “Swoosh-Shaped” climb back.

That’s all very interesting, but how does it affect us in Charlotte?

In many ways, our local economy is a microcosm of the larger state of affairs.

As COVID-19 cases have drifted back higher in the Queen City and North Carolina, we’ve still got a ways to go before we’re on solid ground.

Our ability to bounce back depends on a few things: 1) keeping infection rates down; 2) workers keeping the jobs they have and returning to the ones they lost; 3) folks shopping, eating out, and spending money locally.

In terms of markets, the recent gains make it clear that investors are looking past the current gloom to a hopefully rosy future.

Are they clairvoyant? Foolishly optimistic? Not optimistic enough?

I agree with Yale economist Dr. Robert Shiller’s take: he thinks this is a FOMO market driven by the Fear Of Missing Out.

Many investors regret not participating in the 2009 rally and are determined not to miss out again. That psychological narrative is pushing up the market even in the face of bad news.4

Will it continue?

We’re in earnings season and investors are waiting to see how badly U.S. companies were damaged last quarter.

Since many companies have refused to release earnings forecasts, we’re prepared for surprises. Positive and negative.

Bottom line: Buckle up, I think we’re in for a choppy ride.

Ok, so where’s the good news you promised? 

When times are tough and headlines are overwhelmingly negative, it becomes harder to find the good news. But it’s there:

  • A New Jersey hospital once described as a “war zone” now has zero COVID-19 patients.5
  • 17 COVID-19 vaccines are in human trials. At least one may be ready for approval by the end of 2020.6
  • 2 million folks gathered to plant trees in Northern India (while maintaining social distance).7
  • A young man who lost hope of attending college is headed to Harvard Law after the good people he met as a sanitation worker took him under their wings.8

Uplifting stories are out there if we look for them.

 

1https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/07/11/after-fastest-recession-us-history-economic-recovery-may-be-fizzling/

2https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-tell-us-30-million-people-are-unemployed-but-many-doubt-its-that-bad-2020-07-08

3https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-layoffs-furloughs-hospitality-service-travel-unemployment-2020

4https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/understanding-us-pandemic-stock-market-by-robert-j-shiller-2020-07

5https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020/07/once-called-a-war-zone-this-nj-hospital-now-has-zero-coronavirus-patients.html

6https://www.wsj.com/articles/german-biotech-sees-its-coronavirus-vaccine-ready-for-approval-by-december-11594373400

7https://apnews.com/f1d41fd4772742279da89e972dd8493d

8https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/07/us/sanitation-worker-harvard-law-trnd/index.html

What Navy SEALs Can Teach Us About Uncertainty

We’re dealing with more uncertainty than most of us have ever faced before. And as the months drag on, the stress of not knowing what comes next is taking a toll.

How do we make smart decisions when we’re stressed out and everything is uncertain?

We made a quick video talking about what we can learn from how Navy SEALs deal with stress and uncertainty.

You can watch it here.

 

Stay strong,

Chris Mullis, Ph.D., CDFA®
Founding Partner

 

ABOUT US

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CONTACT
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FROM OUR BLOG
Nothing on this website constitutes either the provision of investment advice or solicitation to provide investment advice. Investment advice can only be provided through a formal investment advisory relationship. Copyright © 2021 NorthStar Capital Advisors - Charlotte, NC. All Rights Reserved.