Are We Still in a Recession + Some Good News

 

So, what’s going on with the economy?

Well, hopes for the “V-Shaped” recovery economists wanted seem to be fading.1  Though businesses reopened and millions of people got their jobs back, millions more are still unemployed.2 And more layoffs are likely coming.3

Does that mean we’re still in a recession?

Technically, we won’t know until Q2 and Q3 economic data are released.

Best guess? We’re probably still in a recession.

The more optimistic recovery scenarios depended on containing COVID-19 infections so Americans could safely get back to business.

That…didn’t happen.

The question now is whether rising infection rates will put us in a “W-Shaped” double-dip recession, or a slower “L-Shaped” or “Swoosh-Shaped” climb back.

That’s all very interesting, but how does it affect us in Charlotte?

In many ways, our local economy is a microcosm of the larger state of affairs.

As COVID-19 cases have drifted back higher in the Queen City and North Carolina, we’ve still got a ways to go before we’re on solid ground.

Our ability to bounce back depends on a few things: 1) keeping infection rates down; 2) workers keeping the jobs they have and returning to the ones they lost; 3) folks shopping, eating out, and spending money locally.

In terms of markets, the recent gains make it clear that investors are looking past the current gloom to a hopefully rosy future.

Are they clairvoyant? Foolishly optimistic? Not optimistic enough?

I agree with Yale economist Dr. Robert Shiller’s take: he thinks this is a FOMO market driven by the Fear Of Missing Out.

Many investors regret not participating in the 2009 rally and are determined not to miss out again. That psychological narrative is pushing up the market even in the face of bad news.4

Will it continue?

We’re in earnings season and investors are waiting to see how badly U.S. companies were damaged last quarter.

Since many companies have refused to release earnings forecasts, we’re prepared for surprises. Positive and negative.

Bottom line: Buckle up, I think we’re in for a choppy ride.

Ok, so where’s the good news you promised? 

When times are tough and headlines are overwhelmingly negative, it becomes harder to find the good news. But it’s there:

  • A New Jersey hospital once described as a “war zone” now has zero COVID-19 patients.5
  • 17 COVID-19 vaccines are in human trials. At least one may be ready for approval by the end of 2020.6
  • 2 million folks gathered to plant trees in Northern India (while maintaining social distance).7
  • A young man who lost hope of attending college is headed to Harvard Law after the good people he met as a sanitation worker took him under their wings.8

Uplifting stories are out there if we look for them.

 

1https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/07/11/after-fastest-recession-us-history-economic-recovery-may-be-fizzling/

2https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-tell-us-30-million-people-are-unemployed-but-many-doubt-its-that-bad-2020-07-08

3https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-layoffs-furloughs-hospitality-service-travel-unemployment-2020

4https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/understanding-us-pandemic-stock-market-by-robert-j-shiller-2020-07

5https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020/07/once-called-a-war-zone-this-nj-hospital-now-has-zero-coronavirus-patients.html

6https://www.wsj.com/articles/german-biotech-sees-its-coronavirus-vaccine-ready-for-approval-by-december-11594373400

7https://apnews.com/f1d41fd4772742279da89e972dd8493d

8https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/07/us/sanitation-worker-harvard-law-trnd/index.html

What Navy SEALs Can Teach Us About Uncertainty

We’re dealing with more uncertainty than most of us have ever faced before. And as the months drag on, the stress of not knowing what comes next is taking a toll.

How do we make smart decisions when we’re stressed out and everything is uncertain?

We made a quick video talking about what we can learn from how Navy SEALs deal with stress and uncertainty.

You can watch it here.

 

Stay strong,

Chris Mullis, Ph.D., CDFA®
Founding Partner

 

Midyear Outlook (important read)

Dear Clients & Friends,

The first six months of 2020 saw the advent of the worst global public health crisis in a century — since the 1918 influenza pandemic. In response, the world locked down, putting its economy into a kind of medically induced coma.

In this country, the immediate effects were (1) a savage and nearly instantaneous economic recession, accompanied by record unemployment, and (2) the fastest, deepest collapse in stock prices in living memory, if not ever.

Though I usually write you an extended personal summary annually concerning the year past — and will again — the stark drama of the last half year has been such that I wanted also to report to you now.

This letter follows the format of my annual reports to you. It’s divided into two parts, the first a statement of general principles, especially those most relevant in the current crisis, with a restatement of how I practice my stewardship of our clients’ invested wealth. The second is a review of what little can be known at this point, and of how I propose we continue to deal with the pervasive uncertainties of the moment.


General Principles

• I believe that all lastingly successful investing is essentially goal-focused and planning-driven. All failed investing is market-focused and event-driven.

• Stated another way: every truly successful investor I’ve ever known was acting continuously on a long-term plan. Every failed investor I’ve known continually reacted to sudden and terrifying market shocks.

• Thus I’ve found that long-term investing success is only incidentally a function of the economy and the markets. It is a direct function of how the investor reacts—or, more properly, how he/she refuses to react.

• You and I are long-term, goal-focused equity investors, acting on our plan with patience and discipline. The smaller part of what I do for clients is the crafting of that plan. The much larger part is helping them not to react in stressful times like this.

• I continue to believe that the equity market can’t be consistently forecast, much less timed, and that the only certain way of capturing equities’ superior long-term returns is to sit through their occasionally steep but historically temporary declines.


Review and Outlook

• At midyear, the best that can be said is that the first great wave of the pandemic appears to be abating, and the economy is slowly reopening. As it continues to reopen, there will inevitably be some flareup in new infections. The interaction between the pandemic and the economy in the short to intermediate term is therefore perfectly impossible to forecast, as is the timing of the development of a vaccine.

• The equity market crashed from a new all-time high on February 19 to a bear market low (so far) on March 23, down 34% in 33 days. There is no historical precedent for this steep a decline in so little time. Confoundingly, it then posted its best 50 days in history. The S&P 500 closed out the first half at 3,100.3, 8.4% off its all-time high.

• It is not possible to forecast the near-term course of corporate earnings or dividends, as they — like the economy they reflect — are still largely hostage to the pandemic. That said, I invite your attention to the fact that at June 30 the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note was less than 7 tenths of one percent.

• I infer from the current state of interest rates that though it is impossible to forecast equity earnings, dividends and prices, it can be stated as fact that few if any of my clients can continue to advance toward the achievement of their long-term financial goals in bonds, at anything close to today’s yields. This is just another reason why I’ve advised them to stay the course in equities.

• It should also be noted that even if the pandemic continues to subside and the economy to recover, investors will still have to deal with what may be the most widespread civil unrest in our country in decades, and what promises to be a bitterly partisan presidential election cycle. Emotions seem likely to continue to run high, with unpredictable short-term market consequences.

• I’ve very deliberately labored in this summary to convince you of the sheer unknowability of the short (say, the third quarter of 2020) to intermediate (say, through the first quarter of 2021) term economic and market outlook. In the next breath, I remind you that not one of you is investing for the next one to four calendar quarters. I say again: you and I are long-term, goal-focused, planning-driven, patient, disciplined investors. Our focus is on history rather than headlines, and our mantra is from Churchill: “The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see.”

• Finally, I would urge you to think back to January 1 of this year. Have your most cherished lifetime financial goals changed since then? If not, I see no compelling reason to change your plan — and no reason at all to change your portfolio.

• Be of good cheer. This too shall pass. Optimism remains, to me, the only long-term realism.


By all means, please be in touch with me with any and all questions and concerns. In the meantime, thank you — as always — for your interest.

Warmly,
Chris

Chris Mullis, Ph.D., CDFA®
Founding Partner
Financial Planning.
Wealth Management.
Since 2006AskNorthStar.com
(704) 350-5028
3 keys to success distilled from our 5,110-day journey

 

I hope you’ll allow me to share something very special with you. Fourteen years ago today we launched our financial planning and wealth management practice framed upon three starkly beautiful motivations:

  • To do good
  • To do well by doing good
  • To be happy doing well by doing good

Helping families articulate, underwrite, and fully embrace their great lives is a profound mission that we take up with unyielding energy and commitment.

We are deeply grateful for all of the people who’ve helped us on our journey. From the early clients who trusted us from the get go to our friends and family who’ve lent their support in more ways than we can list here. We would not be where we are without each and every one of them.

It has been an exciting and educational arc of experience. As we look back, here are three essential lessons that we have learned:

  • Time is the key, not money.
    When we meet with prospective clients approaching retirement, universally they express regret that they didn’t get organized and motivated about finances until late in their professional lives. “I wish I would have found you 20 years ago” is the common refrain. Money is a commodity. Time is the precious resource.
  • Inertia is the enemy.
    “If you do the same thing you’ve always done, you will get the same thing you’ve always gotten.” Whatever path you are on, look up to the horizon to see where it leads. If you do not like where you are headed, you must pull up the stakes and change direction…NOW!
  • All successful investing is goal-focused and planning-driven.
    All failed investing is market-focused and performance-driven. All successful investors are continuously acting on a plan. All failed investors are continually reacting to the markets.

The bedrock of our enterprise remains, and will always be, the following:

Thoughtful planning and disciplined investing can be the keys that unlock incredible potential for the good of our clients, their families, and their cherished communities.

As we look forward to the decades to come of serving our clients and our community, know that we are constantly working to deliver superior financial outcomes and to see our clients live their best lives.

Thank you for allowing me to share this milestone and these thoughts with you. Here’s to your continued success!

With gratitude for the past and optimism for the future,

Chris Mullis, Ph.D., CDFA®
Founding Partner
Roth conversion in 2020?

Can you take advantage of 2020’s bear market to generate tax-free income through a Roth conversion?

You’ve probably heard that Roth IRAs are great for generating tax-free income and avoiding Required Minimum Distributions in retirement.

and…

2020’s market losses make it a good year to consider a conversion so you minimize the taxes you pay on the money you convert.

But the details matter a lot. And new laws mean conversions are permanent.

We made a short video showing you how to decide if you should consider a Roth conversion this year.

Check it out here!

 

If you’ve got a question or concern you’d like us to talk about in a future video, email info@nstarcapital.com and let us know! We’d love to hear your feedback.

Financial Order of Operations

One of the pillars of financial success is doing the right things in the right order.  My informal term for this is F.O.O. — Financial Order of Operations.

That phrase may sound slightly cumbersome, but the conceptual framework is a life changer!

I’ve recorded this special video for you that lays out a roadmap for deploying your army of dollar bills.  Watch now to learn exactly what you should do with each successive dollar you have.

You can watch it here.


Following the F.O.O. will strengthen your financial success and allow you to live your best life.

If you have any questions about the particulars of your Financial Order of Operations, please don’t hesitate to reach out.

Thank you and be well,

Chris Mullis, Ph.D., CDFA®
Founding Partner
What Issues Should I Consider For My Aging Parents?

Becoming a caregiver for aging parents can be a drain emotionally and can carry financial ramifications both for parents and for the caregiver children. Helping understand and manage the financial issues involved can make the situation a bit easier all.

In this guide, we cover a number of financial issues that you need to consider when faced with helping and potentially caring for aging parents, including:

  • Be sure you examine your parents’ finances to determine if they are able to manage their own expenses. There may be sources of income available to your parents of which they are unaware.
  • It’s important that you be sure you have access to their parents’ important documents such as any estate planning documents. You should have the names and contact information for any advisors your parents use such as an attorney, financial advisor or accountant.
  • If your parents need long-term care, they will need to investigate ways to cover the cost. Medicaid planning or a reverse mortgage might be options.
  • If the estate of your parents is over a certain amount, then they may have an estate tax issue. It’s also important for you to ensure that your parents’ beneficiary designations on insurance policies and retirement plans are up to date, and that they reflect their wishes.
  • It’s important for you to ensure that your parents’ tax situation is in order, managing any capital gains or losses, as well as fully utilizing any deductible medical expenses.
  • Overall, it’s helpful to stress the benefit of having a handle on all of your parents’ assets, liabilities and all related financial issues as a time may come when your parents are unable to manage their own affairs.

This is a comprehensive guide to the types of financial issues that you consider when helping your aging parents.

 

3 cognitive biases that cheat most investors (and how to beat them)

“The investor’s chief problem – and even his worst enemy – is likely to be himself.” — Benjamin Graham

If you’re looking at headlines or feeling the pressure of the downturn, it’s easy to think you’re not in control.

And it’s true—you have limited control over external circumstances (like the pandemic). But you have complete control over yourself and your behavior.

Times like these are when it’s most important to dig deep, root out bad habits, and come out on the other side mentally stronger than before.

We made a short video showing you exactly how you can overcome the hardwired biases that can cheat you, including the huge mental trap that even Warren Buffett has to fight.

(You’ll have to watch the video to find out what it is!)

You can watch it here.

So what if the market does go down again?

Over the past several weeks, the stock market has experienced both the fastest crash and the most robust bounce ever seen. Right now, while things are relatively calm, I want to underscore the following points that are profoundly important to your investing success.

  • When stock prices are going down, the enduring value of the underlying companies is going up. A market decline is therefore always to be experienced as a sale, and the very nature of sales is that they are temporary. The lower prices go, the more value is to be had at those prices. You instinctively know this about virtually everything else in your economic life. If you can’t apply that same correct instinct to the stocks of America’s and the world’s great companies, it’s not probable that you can ever become a successful investor.
  • Staying fully invested during temporary market declines is the only sure way to capture the entirety of the market’s permanent advance. It is not possible consistently to sell out of falling markets, and later buy back into already advancing markets, thereby capturing the long-term returns of equities. Those returns are your reward for staying calm.
  • You never try to make long-term investment strategy out of short- to intermediate-term disruptions. We have a plan for getting you to the goal you need to reach, in order to secure a successful retirement. To achieve that goal, you need to invest consistently. And to stay invested, not just when the sun is shining.
  • Perhaps more today than ever, bonds, CDs and the like are not an alternative. At the moment, the cash dividend of the S&P 500 is close to three times the yield on the 10-year Treasury note. Even if dividends were to halve in the current crisis, and interest rates stayed where they are, stocks would still yield more than the 10-year Treasury. I’ve never seen that before, and when this crisis passes, I don’t ever expect to see it again. Bonds are simply not, in my judgment, a rational alternative to stocks for the long-term investor.
  • How low the stock market ultimately goes in response to the economy’s cardiac arrest is both unknowable and — to the long-term, goal-focused, planning-driven investor — irrelevant. (Unless, of course, he/she is still in accumulation mode, in which case a renewed decline would be a genuine godsend.)

I hope sharing our enduring principles helps both steady you in the present and focuses you on your long-term success. As always, if you have any questions don’t hesitate to give me a call.

When the world goes as haywire as it’s done lately, you may have occasion to question your investment strategy — and even your overall financial planning. If so, you may wish you could get an objective second opinion you can trust, from a friend. I hope you’ll know me to be that friend.

Wishing great success,
Chris

Chris Mullis, Ph.D.
Founding Partner
Financial Planning.
Wealth Management.
Since 2006

AskNorthStar.com
(704) 350-5028

 

Paradigm shifts (and how to keep up)

Life has changed; how do we adapt without losing sight of what we want to achieve?

As you’ve heard me say before, no one knows how the future will play out, but we should still look ahead and think through the consequences of what’s happening. (More about this kind of second-order thinking ahead.)

I believe that our society and our economy are experiencing a massive paradigm shift.

We will never go back to the world we had before COVID-19, and the lens that we used to evaluate ideas, markets, economies, and personal choices over the last decade may not be sufficient for the next decade.

Here are just a few things that I see changing as a result of what’s going on now:

Social Support: 36.5 million Americans have become unemployed in two months, and the effects are rippling through families, communities, and the economy.1 The government has responded with trillions of stimulus dollars to individuals and businesses. More relief is likely to come. What does this mean for our society? Who should get a helping hand in tough times? Will we permanently expand the social safety net?

Work: Thrown into the largest work-from-home experiment in history, more workers and employers will transition to remote work post-pandemic. This shift in work has major implications. Which places will be a draw if workers can live anywhere and employers can have their pick of a nationwide (or global) workforce? Will those who must physically show up demand different compensation?

Education: Students, parents, schools, and universities are being forced to re-evaluate the definition of education now that the on-campus experience has gone online. What’s missing if you attend from home? What alternatives to a traditional four-year degree will arise?

Shopping & Entertainment: Brick-and-mortar retailers may never recover from the body blow dealt by pandemic lockdowns. Online shopping, grocery delivery, and digital services may finally overtake offline channels. What will the retail landscape look like when it’s easier (and maybe safer) to eat, shop, and watch at home?

What do you think? What do you see changing in the world? Please email me at chrismullis@nstarcapital.com and share your thoughts.

No one has all the answers about the new world and things are not always what they seem.

Though it appears that the stock market has moved past the pandemic, we shouldn’t celebrate just yet.

Why?

Much has changed in the world and we’re still playing out first-order effects. More consequences are coming.

“What are the second- and third-order consequences of this?” is a question big thinkers like Ray Dalio (manager of the largest hedge fund in the world) ask about complex scenarios.

Here’s what they mean:

First-order thinking is fast and simple: B is the logical outcome of event A.

But then what? What happens as a consequence of B?

And what happens as a result of that? And what is the follow-on effect of that?

Second-order thinking is about interactions and complex systems. It’s slow and hard (but mastering it can put us steps ahead of the crowd).

Understanding the new world that’s growing out of the pandemic requires thinking through these higher-order consequences and developing a new lens to navigate the uncertain waters ahead.

How can we adapt? How can we still pursue our goals in a totally different world?

We think it through with humility and an open mind.

We hone our second-order thinking skills by asking: what could happen? And then what? How likely is it that I’m right? What could happen if I’m wrong? How do I position myself?

We’ll do it together.

COVID-19 is going to be with us for the rest of 2020 and possibly into 2021. So we’re adapting.

At NorthStar Capital Advisors, it means we will remain entirely online for the time being.

It also means big changes in our personal lives. Our children are learning online through the end of the school year and perhaps back again this fall. My wife continues to be Super Woman managing our home and our department of education.

We’re taking it day by day and thinking through those higher-order effects.

How about you? What changes are you making to your plans this summer and fall?

Be well,
Chris

Chris Mullis, Ph.D.
Founding Partner
Financial Planning.
Wealth Management.
Since 2006

AskNorthStar.com
(704) 350-5028

P.S. A number of clients and friends have reached out to talk through options around a potential lay-off, buy-out offer, or early retirement. If this is on your mind, please let me know. We can work through it together.

P.P.S If you’ve got a kid in college this fall, I have a question for you: is virtual university still a compelling offer? Are you and your student considering a gap year or some alternative? Please email me at chrismullis@nstarcapital.com and let me know. I’m interested in learning from your experience.

1https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/05/14/unemployment-jobless-claims-coronavirus/

Chart source: https://www.artsci.com/studentpoll-covid-19-edition-2 

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