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Rollercoaster ride?

Markets rallied in relief on some better-than-expected data on Friday.¹ It was a bright spot in what has seemed like a relentless parade of bad news.

But the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq still all closed out the week with losses.¹

Is this the bottom of the bear market?

Maybe. Or maybe we’re somewhere in the middle with the loop-the-loops.

Let’s be prepared for volatility to continue.

Folks tend to focus a lot on the numbers, but emotions and behaviors may matter even more.

Knowing how to stick with a strategy during the loops and curves and uphills and downhills is a HUGE part of being a successful investor.

Market bottoms don’t come with a signpost. There’s no one waving a flag saying, “the worst is over, it’s all uphill from here!”

The end of a bear market looks an awful lot like the middle, and we don’t know if it’s the bottom until after we’re already past it.

That’s why it’s so important to stick to a strategy and not let the euphoria of a rally or the fear of drops sway our decisions.

Investors who bail during the downturns and miss the ride back up tend to lose spectacularly.

Why? Because the best days and worst market days have historically clustered.²

We don’t know how long this bear market will last. We don’t know if a recession is coming.

We do know this: you can’t enjoy the upside of the rollercoaster if you get off at the bottom.

Bottom line: it’s nice to get a reprieve from the selling pressure, but let’s be (emotionally and financially) prepared for a lot more volatility ahead.

That 70s economy

Markets gifted us with another burst of volatility and headlines are looking apocalyptic again.

Some folks might think it’s time to bail on markets for the summer, but I’ll tell you why that thinking is a mistake.

First, let’s peel back some layers to explore what’s driving markets.

The latest selloff was largely driven by concerns about how the pace of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes could affect economic growth.¹

The Fed’s “hawkish” policy of rapidly raising interest rates to bring down inflation seems likely to take a chunk out of economic growth.

Is a recession or bear market on the way?

Those are risks we are prepared for.

While the Fed could manage to execute a “soft landing” and successfully lower inflation without triggering a downturn, its track record isn’t so good.

According to Schwab, 10 out of the last 13 rate-hike cycles resulted in a recession.²

Those aren’t odds I’d want to take to Vegas.

However, we are holding a couple of strong cards: a red-hot jobs market and steady consumer spending.^3,4

Could those bright spots fend off a recession or downturn?

Very possibly. We’ll have to wait and see.

Are the 70s back?

No, I’m not talking about bell bottoms and platform shoes.

I’m talking about “stagflation.”

What does that even mean?

Stagflation is a buzzword combining “stagnation” and “inflation” and signifies an economy plagued by low economic growth, high inflation, and high unemployment.⁵

We saw it in this country in the 1970s during an oil crisis.

It’s hard to say if it’s going to happen again. It’s definitely a risk we (and the world’s economists) are watching.

However, there are two points that count against a vintage 70s stagflation scenario: 1) that strong jobs market and 2) inflation that might already be peaking.⁶

So, let’s not panic.

Here’s the bottom line (and you’ve probably heard me say it a hundred times): Market downturns, recessions, and volatility happen regularly.

We expect them.

We plan for them.

We remember that they don’t last forever.

We stay nimble and look for opportunities.

Though it looks like we’re in for a rocky summer, that doesn’t mean it’s time to hit the eject button.

Instead, we make careful shifts, especially in a rising interest rate environment.

The weeks ahead are very likely to be volatile. I’m here, I’m watching, and I’ll be in touch as needed.

Reassuringly,

Dr. Chris Mullis, CFP®, CDFA®

P.S. Need a jolt of good energy? Check out the Monterey Bay Aquarium’s Sea Otter Cam. If you’re lucky, you might catch a live feeding.

1 – https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/05/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

2 – https://www.schwab.com/resource-center/insights/content/when-levee-breaks-panic-is-not-strategy

3 – https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/01/inflation-forces-consumers-to-rethink-spending-habits.html

4 – https://www.npr.org/2022/05/06/1096863449/the-us-jobs-market-continues-its-strong-comeback-from-the-pandemic

5 – https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/economics/stagflation/

6 – https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/01/investing/stocks-week-ahead/index.html

Another wild ride

Markets bucked and sold off again.¹

Should we be worried?

Not necessarily. These things happen pretty regularly, especially when headlines are negative.

In fact, you might recall that we kicked off 2022 with a big drop.²

So, let’s talk about what’s behind the latest wild market ride.

(Scroll to the end if you want to skip right to the reassurance.)

What led to the selloff?

Primarily, economic worries.¹

Worries about new COVID-19 surges.

Worries about Ukraine.

Worries about the U.S. economy.

A report just came out showing the economy shrank by 1.4% in the first three months of 2022, surprising analysts who expected positive growth of 1.0%.³

Though a single quarter of negative growth isn’t a recession, it’s a sign that inflation, the Ukraine conflict, and the pandemic hangover are weighing on the economy.

Realistically, some form of a slowdown was probably inevitable, given the massive economic recovery of 2021.

And, the news isn’t all gloom. 1) This is a preliminary report, so we’ll see revisions later. 2) Economists still believe the economy has plenty of room to grow, particularly given the strength of the job market, so the economy could rebound. 3) Americans are continuing to spend.⁴

The economy is still strong, but it’s showing cracks. We’re watching closely.

You can see a theme: markets are being driven by worry and fear.

Is the selling done?

That’s impossible to say.

Could we see a bigger correction or bear market?

Absolutely. That’s very possible.

Corrections and pullbacks happen very frequently.

Here’s a chart that shows intra-year dips in the S&P 500 alongside annual performance. (You’ve probably seen this chart before.)

Take a look at the red circles to see the market drops each year.

The big takeaway? In 14 of the last 22 years, markets have dropped at least 10%.⁵

We’re dealing with a lot of uncertainty in 2022 and investors are feeling very cautious about the future.

However, that doesn’t mean that we should hit the panic button and exit our strategies.

Knee-jerk reactions to market turbulence can be VERY costly.

Questions? Concerns? Please hit “reply” and I’ll respond.

Thinking calm thoughts,
Dr. Chris Mullis, CFP®, CDFA®

P.S. A mental snack: A TED talk by psycho-economist Sheena Iyengar on how we make choices

P.P.S. Want to feel more grateful for what you have? Here’s another great TED talk on the topic by Benedictine monk David Steindl-Rast. If you watch it, hit “reply” and let me know what you think!

1 – https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/25/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

2 – https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/23/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

3 – https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/28/us-q1-gdp-growth.html

4 – https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/04/28/gdp-2022-q1-economy/

Archived PDF link

5 – https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/insights/market-insights/guide-to-the-markets/mi-guide-to-the-markets-us.pdf

Better or worse? (big question inside)

Today, I have a big-picture question for you if you’re interested.

While absorbing the recent news, we can be forgiven for thinking that the world is going off the rails.

There’s a global pandemic, worrying inflation, atrocities in Ukraine, and “unprecedented” developments everywhere.

A fear arises that it’s all getting worse, somehow.

If we feel that way, we’re not alone. A lot of people feel that way.¹

So, let’s ask the big question: Is the world getting worse? Or is it actually getting better?

Honestly, I’m not sure that question can really be answered.

Why?

I imagine that you’ve heard the statistics of how far the world has come in terms of measurable progress (it’s pretty amazing).

But, though it might be nice to know that global poverty is down or that the rate of people killing people is historically low, that’s not really helpful when you’re getting gouged at the pump, your kid is home sick, and you’re seeing images of ruined lives on the news.

For the first time in human history, we can instantly communicate with folks thousands of miles away and see what they’re doing.

We have access to real-time news from everywhere in the world, and because of how the news is constructed, it’s nearly always the bad stuff that gets our attention.

Most of us spend hours each day consuming media of one kind or another.²

The question we ask each other has changed from “how are things in your neck of the woods” to “have you heard about {crisis of the moment}?”

We’re human. We live our lives one day at a time inside a fairly small bubble. And that bubble is easily influenced by daily hassles, media filters, and our own outlook on the world.

So, what do we do? How do we combat the existential dread and pessimism?

I think this is a serious and important question, by the way.

We need to know how to put things into perspective, for ourselves, for the children and young people who look to us for guidance, and for our loved ones who might need a boost.

A few ideas:

Invest time in relationships with the people we love.

Be selective in the news and media we consume.

Follow our faith if we have one.

Look for beautiful moments and treat them with awe (like that little girl at the fair in the photo above).

Make art, make music, and build something beautiful.

Volunteer, donate, and be the change we want to see.

What do you think? Any advice for keeping it positive?

I’ll close by asking you: How are you doing?

What’s going on in your neck of the woods?

Positively,
Dr. Chris

P.S. Why is a practice of positivity so important? Well, it keeps us from making fear-based decisions, for one. I also think it helps us make our little corner of the world better. Johns Hopkins University thinks it might be a big deal for our health.³

¹_{https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/03/21/looking-ahead-to-2050-americans-are-pessimistic-about-many-aspects-of-life-in-u-s/}

²_{https://www.statista.com/topics/1536/media-use/}

³_{https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/wellness-and-prevention/the-power-of-positive-thinking}

Chris Mullis, Ph.D., CDFA®

NorthStar Capital Advisors

704-350-5028 ext 7

chrismullis@nstarcapital.com

521 East Blvd, Charlotte, NC 28203

RetireNorth.com

Celebrating 16 Years • 2006-2022

Hard times (hope inside)

Hard times are here.

(I’m still optimistic, though; I’ll explain why at the end.)

People are dying, running for their lives, and watching everything they’ve worked for go up in literal flames.

And, because of technology, we’ve got a front-row seat in real time.

Energy prices are spiking, markets are gyrating.

Oh yeah, there’s still a pandemic.

Sometimes, it’s just one thing after another and everything all at once.

What do we do? How do we deal with it?

I think it depends on the day.

Some days, we’re overwhelmed and struggle to make progress.

Other days we press on and focus on putting one foot in front of the other.

Some of us look to our faith for guidance.

We also remember that humans are resilient creatures who have survived and thrived through some terrible times.

We remember that we’re not alone.

You’re not alone. I’m not alone. They’re not alone.

We reach out for help on our bad days and offer support on our good days.

We volunteer, donate, speak up, and take action.

I was a big Mr. Rogers fan growing up. He had me from the moment I saw “Trolley” because I lived and breathed trains as a child.

There’s a quote by Mr. Rogers that often shows up during crises:

“When I was a boy and I would see scary things in the news, my mother would say to me, ‘Look for the helpers. You will always find people who are helping.’”

As adults, we’ve got a greater burden to carry—we must become the helpers.

I think the secret to getting through is kindness and love.

If we look closely, we can find it happening right now.

Volunteers leaving strollers for Ukrainian families who will need them when they arrive in Poland and Slovakia.¹

Residents of a refugee camp throwing a birthday party for a 7-year-old girl.²

Berliners welcoming refugees in train stations and opening their homes.³

Groups greeting Afghan refugees with open arms and housewarming gifts in Detroit.⁴

In the midst of everything, we can offer each other kindness, encouragement, and support.

Hoping for peace,
Dr. Chris

P.S. Looking for ways to help Ukrainians? Here are a few.

P.P.S. Markets are reacting to energy prices, economic concerns, and uncertainty as we’d expect: with extreme volatility. Remember the stock market is like yo-yoing while climbing Mount Everest — lots of ups and downs in the short term, overlaid on a relentless uptrend. If you have questions about what you should or should not be doing around your portfolio, let’s talk about that!

¹https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2022/03/07/strollers-ukraine-polish-train-station/9412895002/

²https://www.newsweek.com/refugee-camp-throws-birthday-celebration-7-year-old-ukrainian-girl-1685113

³https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60611188

⁴https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/wayne-county/2022/03/05/resettled-afghan-refugees-given-housewarming-kits-faith-groups/9323799002/

Chris Mullis, Ph.D., CDFA®

NorthStar Capital Advisors

704-350-5028 ext 7

chrismullis@nstarcapital.com

521 East Blvd, Charlotte, NC 28203

RetireNorth.com

Celebrating 16 Years • 2006-2022

What comes next?

Some perspective on the grim situation in Ukraine and what could happen in markets.

(Need a break from it? Scroll down to the P.S.)

The invasion of Ukraine is a serious and scary escalation in tensions between Russia, Europe, and the United States.

Before we dive in to what it could mean, let’s take a moment to think about the many folks who are suffering and dying as well as the ordinary Russians who will suffer from sanctions, instability, and economic damage.

We hope and pray that diplomacy can end this crisis for all our sakes.

Let’s talk about some possible implications for markets and our economy.

Given Ukraine’s critical pipelines and Western sanctions on Russia, the crisis may lead to higher energy prices, which will trickle down to higher pump and heating fuel costs.¹

Sustained price increases could hamper the Federal Reserve’s effort to control inflation, so we’re keeping an eye on that as well.

What could happen in markets?

Extreme volatility, as we’ve already experienced, is very likely. Another correction (or even a bear market) is definitely possible.

What does history teach us about market reactions to geopolitical shocks?

History shows that stocks usually recover quickly from geopolitical crises.

We’ll add a disclaimer that the future doesn’t perfectly match the past — but it often rhymes.

Let’s take a look at some examples from other invasions and wars.²

Here’s the key takeaway: short-term, markets usually react badly. However, a year later, markets have historically recovered.

Will they always? In every case? That’s impossible to say.

But, the study of 29 geopolitical events since WWII shows a general trend toward short-term losses in the first weeks and longer-term gains over months.²

A note: “geopolitical event” is a very antiseptic phrase for horrible things like bombings, wars, invasions, attacks, and really fails to encompass the full cost in human misery.

Let’s never forget the truth behind the numbers.

We can’t know or control what happens next. We can hope, pray, donate, and speak out.

And we can focus on what’s in our control: Ourselves, our actions and reactions, and our strategies for uncertain times.

Let’s hug the people we love extra tightly today and be very grateful for our blessings.

Be well,
Dr. Chris & the NorthStar Team

P.S. Tired of war and bad news? Need a break? We’ve got two TED talks for you:
1) A dive into research that shows how our brains might be wired for optimism
2) How to forge meaning from challenging moments.

P.P.S. Looking for ways to donate to Ukrainians? Here’s a roundup of some organizations doing good work.

1 – https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/27/business/oil-prices-russia-ukraine.html
2 – https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/live-markets-what-history-says-about-geopolitics-market-2022-02-18/

An exogenous variable

Not 48 days ago, I wrote the following in our annual letter to clients and friends:

“In general, I think it most likely that in the coming year, (a) the lethality of the virus continues to wane, (b) the world economy continues to reopen, (c) corporate earnings continue to advance, (d) the Federal Reserve begins draining excess liquidity from the banking system with some resultant increase in interest rates, (e) inflation subsides somewhat, and (f) barring some other exogenous variable – which we can never really do – equity values continue to advance, though at something less (and probably a lot less) than the blazing pace at which they’ve been soaring since the market trough of March 2020…Please don’t mistake this for a forecast. [If it’s wrong] my recommendations to you will be unaffected, since our investment policy is driven entirely by the plan we’ve made, and not at all by current events (emphasis added).”

Exogenous means the variable or the event is coming from outside.

Russia/Ukraine is the exogenous variable du jour. The investment policy of goal-focused, plan-driven, long-term stock investors, like you and I, should be unaffected by it.

That concludes this memo’s core message; everything else is commentary.

Under the heading of commentary:

(1) The Russia/Ukraine event has nothing to do with “democracy.” It has to do with energy, which is the lifeblood of the Russian kleptocracy. Russia supplies 40% of Europe’s heating fuel, in the form of natural gas. One of the two aging pipelines through which the gas is transmitted runs through Ukraine, which had lately evinced a growing yearning for increased ties to the West. Putin could never allow this. (See Lukas Alpert’s essay on MarketWatch.)

(2) At around 4,100, the S&P 500 has experienced a drawdown about equal to its average since 1980.

(3) At the risk of making a political statement: A great deal of good can come out of all this, if and to the extent that it leads both the United States and Europe to a significant reappraisal of their respective energy policies, to the detriment of Putin’s Russia.

My thoughts and heart are with the people of Ukraine and our US military personnel deployed in Eastern Europe.

Chris Mullis, Ph.D., CDFA®

NorthStar Capital Advisors

704-350-5028 ext 7

chrismullis@nstarcapital.com

521 East Blvd, Charlotte, NC 28203

RetireNorth.com

Celebrating 16 Years • 2006-2022

When whales fight

As we consider the tensions driving recent market movements, a Korean folk saying seems apt:

“When whales fight, the shrimp’s back is broken.”

The idea is that bystanders get hurt when big folks duke it out.

What are the tensions? Who are the bystanders?

Let’s discuss.

An invasion of Ukraine may occur in the coming days or weeks.

Or it might not. It’s really impossible to say.

The U.S. has closed the embassy in Kyiv and warned of a dramatic buildup of Russian forces on the border with Ukraine.¹

It’s unclear whether Russia is willing to diplomatically resolve security concerns about Ukraine joining NATO.²

However, a ground war between NATO and Russia would be extremely damaging, so it seems (hopefully) unlikely that Russian troops would actually invade.

Then again, they might.

That seesaw between high tension and relief is likely to add a lot of volatility to markets as investors digest the latest news.

The Federal Reserve may aggressively raise interest rates to fight inflation.³

With inflation at historic highs, some Fed officials worry that the central bank’s credibility — AKA, their ability to manage inflation and employment — is on the line.

Rate hikes are coming in 2022, but how many and how quickly? That’s up for debate by the Federal Open Market Committee next month.

Fed “hawks” want to raise rates quickly to try to bring inflation under control and increase consumer confidence and trust.

Fed “doves” want to carefully raise rates and watch the data to avoid damaging growth or spooking markets.

These are big decisions with big consequences for us, the economy, and markets.

While FOMC meetings are often dry affairs, the next one looks to have as much drama as an episode of Succession.

We’ll stay tuned.

Bottom line: there are a lot of factors driving market movements, so we can expect to see plenty of volatility in the weeks to come.

Given the Fed and geopolitical tensions at play, a pullback or correction would not be surprising, either.

What can we do when we’re facing major events we can’t control?

Take a deep breath, be grateful for all the good in our lives, and focus on our strategy.

(And email us with questions or concerns.)

Let’s hope for peace and clarity in the weeks to come.

We’re keeping a close watch and will reach out as needed.

Be well,
Your NorthStar Team

P.S. Looking for a mental break? Here’s an interesting TEDx talk on “The Science and Power of Hope.” It’s given by Dr. Chan Hellman, whose research focuses on the psychological power of hope to overcome adversity and create change.

Let us know what you think!

¹https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/13/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

²https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60379833

³https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/14/bullard-say-the-fed-needs-to-front-load-tightening-because-inflation-is-possibly-accelerating.html

How to make the most of life’s most important $$ lessons

What’s the first big lesson you learned about money?

How did you learn it?

Many of us start learning about finance as kids.¹

We watch those around us, and we learn by trial and error.²

That can teach us some important basics about finance. And it can open the door to learning some of life’s major lessons about money.

What are those lessons and when’s the best time to learn them?

When it comes to life’s lessons about money, you can’t always expect to learn them in school — and the sooner you know them, the better.

Those life-changing finance lessons are the focus of this month’s Visual Insights Newsletter.

Click here to see it!

The lessons we pick up about money can influence our choices, and they can stick with us for life.

No matter when you learn them, it’s never too late to find better ways to leverage them.

Go ahead and click here to check out the 5 powerful money lessons you’ll wish you knew sooner.

1 – https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/why-we-need-to-teach-kids-about-money-2021-10
2 – https://youth.gov/youth-topics/financial-capability-literacy/facts

Powerful 2022?

What do you think about starting a new year with resolutions and goals?

Do you like to plan your year that way or do you prefer to just wing it?

We made a quick video talking about three simple (but powerful) questions you can use to set the stage for an amazing 2022.

You can watch it here.

Transcription:

Hi, I’m Dr. Chris Mullis with NorthStar Capital Advisors, and I’m here to help you launch 2022 with a great mindset.

In this video, I’m going to talk about three simple (but powerful) questions you can ask yourself to set the stage for an amazing year, even when so much around us is unpredictable and up in the air.

One question before we start: why set goals or intentions at all?

Sure, you could just show up and wing it, but if you’re watching this video, I bet you’re someone who wants more out of life.

And starting your year with a focus on where you want to go, is a great way to be more mindful of what you take on and how you spend your time.

What do you want more of this year?
Is it time? Travel? Experiences?
Commit them to paper.

How do you want to show up for your family, your friends, and your community?

Who is most important to you and how can you invest in those relationships?

What do you want to get better at this year? Personally? Professionally? Mentally? It’s all fair game.

As we close the door on 2021 and set the stage for 2022, there’s a lot that is beyond our control.

That’s why setting a direction is so critical: we can achieve incredible things by paying attention to what’s most important to us and intentionally focusing on improvement.

To throw a sports analogy at you: a player can’t control whether their team makes it to the championship, but they can improve their odds by perfecting a skill, improving their mental game, and supporting their teammates.

Thanks for watching. If you have a question about what I’ve discussed with you or you’d like to speak personally about what’s going on, please send me a message. I’ll respond personally.

Whatever 2022 holds, I hope it brings you joy, excitement, and prosperity.

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Rollercoaster ride?

That 70s economy

Another wild ride

Better or worse? (big question inside)

Hard times (hope inside)

What comes next?

An exogenous variable

When whales fight

How to make the most of life’s most important $$ lessons

Powerful 2022?

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