Best Practices Archives - Page 8 of 10 - NorthStar Capital Advisors

Top Investing Ideas for 2016 (or any other year)

It that time of year where the financial media machine is awash with seemingly important predictions for the new year. Despite all the hype, no one can reliably forecast market moving events or trends. Resisting the urge to build investment strategies around faulty forecasts, Bob Seawright provides a quick summary of his top investment ideas for 2016 (or any other year), none of which is dependent upon predicting the future:

Einstein wisely advised that we keep things as simple as possible, but no simpler. Overly complicated systems, from financial derivatives to tax systems, are difficult to comprehend, easy to exploit and possibly dangerous. Simple rules, in contrast, can make us smart and create a safer world.
Out of our general fear, we all too frequently bail on our investments and our plans and fail to invest altogether. But if we’re going to succeed, we need to invest, continue to invest and stay the course. Multiple studies have shown that those who trade the most earn the lowest returns. Remember Pascal’s wisdom: “All man’s miseries derive from not being able to sit in a quiet room alone.”
The Uniform Prudent Investor Act stated: “Because broad diversification is fundamental to the concept of risk management, it is incorporated into the definition of prudent investing.” Fortunately, a well-diversified portfolio captures most of the potential upside available with much lower volatility. On the other hand, a well-diversified portfolio will always include some poor performers, and that’s hard for us to abide. Do it anyway.
The idea that an investor ought to be aware and nimble enough to avoid market downturns or simply to find and move into better investments is remarkably appealing. But nobody does it successfully over time. We’ve all seen and done this: we find a hot new approach or hot new manager and, because what we own hasn’t been doing so well, we switch, only to find that the hotness that caused us to buy has cooled. We need to get off that merry-go-round.
The leading factor in the success or failure of any investment is fees. In fact, the relationship between fees and performance is an inverse one. Every investor needs to count costs.
Multiple studies establish what we should already know: a manager who has a significant ownership stake in his fund is much more likely to do well than one who doesn’t. Make sure to look for “skin in the game” from every money manager you use.
Don’t be afraid to ask for and get help. American virologist David Baltimore, who won the Nobel Prize for Medicine in 1975, once told me that over the years (and especially while he was president of Caltech) he had received many manuscripts claiming to have solved some great scientific problem or overthrown the existing scientific paradigm to provide some grand theory of everything. Many prominent scientists have drawers full of similar submissions, usually from people working alone and outside the scientific community. As Dr. Baltimore emphasized, good science is a collaborative, community effort; crackpots work alone.

Happy New Year and all the best in 2016!

Source: TA

Mapping Student Debt

More than 42 million Americans owe a total of $1.1 trillion in student debt, making it the second-largest liability on the national balance sheet. A generation ago, student debt was a relative rarity, but for today’s students and recent graduates, it’s a central fact of economic life that we don’t know much about. Mapping Student Debt is changing that. The maps below show how borrowing for college affects the nation, your city, and even your neighborhood, giving a new perspective on the way in which student debt relates to economic inequality.

Click for the full, interactive map

Source: Mapping Student Debt

Global Financial Literacy & Gender

The scatter plot above charts the global relationship between Gross Domestic Product (GPD) per person (horizontal axis) versus financial literacy (vertical axis). Each dot represents one of the 93 countries surveyed. The color of the dot encodes the gender gap between the financial literary of men and women in each country (deep blue = men score 20% higher than women; dark pink = case where women score 5% higher than men; white = case where men and women are the same).

Key observations:

Men score higher in financial literacy than women in the vast majority of countries. Notable and rare exceptions include: Britain, UAE, and Mexico.
Generally speaking, the wealthier the country, the higher the citizens’ financial literacy.
The Scandinavian countries are the most financially literate (average score ~70%), while the lowest are Angola and Albania at ~15%.

Source: The Economist

Financial Free Lunch?

Barry Ritholtz lays bare the myth…

Deep down inside, you already know this: There ain’t no such thing as a free lunch, financially or otherwise.

Of so many free lunches, this is the hard truth:

You are not going to win the lottery.
Hot stock tips are worthless (the only exceptions are those especially costly tips that will get you sent to federal prison).
You are not going to buy an iPad from one of those deal sites for $3.
No, you are not likely to buy in early to the next Apple or Netflix, and if you do, you are unlikely to hold it long enough.
No, you are not going to make $10,000 gambling at fantasy sports.
You (or your kid) are not going to be the next Michael Jordan or Adele.
The odds are radically against you finding the mutual fund manager or stock broker who is going to make you fabulously rich.
Indeed, the odds are against you stock picking, market timing or investing in a venture fund, private equity fund or hedge fund that, over the long haul, is going to outperform a simple index fund.

Source: BR

Jason Zweig’s Rules for Investing

Jason Zweig is a leading financial journalist and author. You’ll find his stuff in the Wall Street Journal several days a week. Buried within the appendix of his book, Your Money & Your Brain, is this great list of common sense rules that are commonly ignored.

Jason Zweig’s Rules for Investing

1. Take the Global View: Use a spreadsheet to track your total net worth — not day-to-day price fluctuations.

2. Hope for the best, but expect the worst: Brace for disaster via diversification and learning market history. Expect good investments to do poorly from time to time. Don’t allow temporary under-performance or disaster to cause you to panic.

3. Investigate, then invest: Study companies’ financial statement, mutual funds’ prospectus, and advisors’ background. Do your homework!

4. Never say always: Never put more than 10% of your net worth into any one investment.

5. Know what you don’t know: Don’t believe you know everything. Look across different time periods; ask what might make an investment go down.

6. The past is not prologue: Investors buy low sell high! They don’t buy something merely because it is trending higher.

7. Weigh what they say: Ask any forecaster for their complete track record of predictions. Before deploying a strategy, gather objective evidence of its performance.

8. If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is: High Return + Low Risk + Short Time = Fraud.

9. Costs are killers: Trading costs can equal 1%; Mutual fund fees are another 1-2%; If middlemen take 3-5% of your cash, its a huge drag on returns.

10. Eggs go splat: Never put all your eggs in one basket; diversify across U.S., Foreign stocks, bonds and cash. Never fill your 401(k) with employee company stock.

Managing Your Portfolio: One Father’s Advice

Arthur Zeikel, president of Merrill Lynch Asset Management, sent his daughter a letter teaching her some investing basics.

Enjoy!

———

Personal portfolio management is not a competitive sport. It is, instead, an important individualized effort to achieve some predetermined financial goal by balancing one’s risk-tolerance level with the desire to enhance capital wealth. Good investment management practices are complex and time consuming, requiring discipline, patience, and consistency of application. Too many investors fail to follow some simple, time-tested tenets that improve the odds of achieving success and, at the same time, reduce the anxiety naturally associated with an uncertain undertaking.

I hope the following advice will help:

A fool and his money are soon parted. Investment capital becomes a perishable commodity if not handled properly. Be serious. Pay attention to your financial affairs. Take an active, intensive interest. If you don’t, why should anyone else?

There is no free lunch. Risk and return are interrelated. Set reasonable objectives using history as a guide. All returns relate to inflation. Better to be safe than sorry. Never up, never in. Most investors underestimate the stress of a high-risk portfolio on the way down.

Don’t put all your eggs in one basket. Diversify. Asset allocation determines the rate of return. Stocks beat bonds over time.

Never overreach for yield. Remember, leverage works both ways. More money has been lost searching for yield than at the point of a gun (Ray DeVoe).

Spend interest, never principal, If at all possible, take out less than comes in. Then a portfolio grows in value and lasts forever. The other way around, it can be diminished quite rapidly.

You cannot eat relative performance. Measure results on a total return, portfolio basis against your own objectives, not someone else’s.

Don’t be afraid to take a loss. Mistakes are part of the game. The cost price of a security is a matter of historical insignificance, of interest only to the IRS. Averaging down, which is different from dollar cost averaging, means the first decision was a mistake. It is a technique used to avoid admitting a mistake or to recover a loss against the odds. When in doubt, get out. The first loss is not only the best, but is also usually the smallest.

Watch out for fads. Hula hoops and bowling alleys (among others) didn’t last. There are no permanent shortages (or oversupplies). Every trend creates its own countervailing force. Expect the unexpected.

Act. Make decisions. No amount of information can remove all uncertainty. Have confidence in your moves. Better to be approximately right than precisely wrong.

Take the long view. Don’t panic under short-term transitory developments. Stick to your plan. Prevent emotion from overtaking reason. Market timing generally doesn’t work. Recognize the rhythm of events.

Remember the value of common sense. No system works all of the time. History is a guide, not a template.

This is all you really need to know.

When this article was originally published in 1995, Arthur Zeikel was president of Merrill Lynch Asset Management in New Jersey.

Source: Forbes

20 People You Don’t Want to Invest With

Identifying what does NOT work is often a great process for narrowing your list of options of what you should do. In that spirit, here’s Ben Carlson’s list of 20 people you wouldn’t want to invest with:

1. People that are unwilling or unable to admit their limitations.

2. People that are consumed by ideological or political beliefs when making investment decisions.

3. People that are unwilling to say “I don’t know.”

4. People that don’t learn from their mistakes.

5. People that blame external forces for their failures.

6. People that are unable to effectively communicate their process.

7. People that make guarantees about the markets in the future.

8. People that are more interested in selling you a product than creating a beneficial long-lasting client relationship.

9. People that try to invest in the markets as they “should be” instead of how they actually are.

10. People that are more worried about what others are doing instead of focusing on their own process and goals.

11. People that take the markets personally and let their emotions drive their decisions.

12. People that assume “trust me, I got this” is good enough in terms of explaining their strategy.

13. People that believe in conspiracy theories and think the system is out to get them.

14. People that are more worried about sounding intelligent than actually making money.

15. People that obsess over the market’s short-term movements.

16. People that would rather take you golfing than help you solve your problems.

17. People that make you feel like they’re doing you a favor by letting you invest your money with them.

18. People that try to dazzle you with 200 page pitch books.

19. People that are more worried about gathering future clients than taking care of their current ones.

20. People that tell you what you want to hear instead of what you need to hear.

Source: AWOCS

When Your City Became Unaffordable

Asset Class Performance, 1H 2015

From the Novel Investor:
The chart below shows several issues investors struggle with all the time. It’s difficult to pick the best performing investment year after year, yet for many investors it’s an annual event. They look for an encore, picking the best asset class last year with the hope of a repeat performance. Yet, betting on last year’s winner rarely works out.

Assets at the top of the chart one year could be at the bottom the next, and vice versa. Much of this is due to reversion to the mean. But over the long-term, those big swings even out. The chart shows annual returns for eight asset classes against a diversified portfolio. Diversification works to smooth out those big swings in the short-term. While you’ll never get the biggest gains of any year, you avoid the huge losses.

The chart above ranks the best to worst investment returns by asset class over the past 15 years.

Source: Novel Investor

Class of 2015: Financial Advice That will CHANGE YOUR LIFE

The following is a brief excerpt from the commencement address by Dr. Chris Mullis to the graduating class of Providence Day School on May 31, 2013. The full text of Dr. Mullis’ speech, that includes career advice, financial guidance, and a few pearls of wisdom, can be found here.

At my investment advisory firm, we developed complex computer algorithms and use them to manage our clients’ investment portfolios. But the basic steps you need to take to manage your own money well are deceptively simple. First, live within your means and avoid being caught up in rapid lifestyle inflation. You will not live like your parents when you first start out. Second, save and invest your money wisely. Let me elaborate on this point.

Wealth accumulation depends on three factors: how much you save, the rate at which your money grows, and how long you save. That last factor, time, is very, very important. There’s an urban legend that Albert Einstein once said that compounding interest is the most powerful force in the Universe. That quote is likely misattributed but the message is spot on. If you save $5,000 a year for 40 years and earn 8% annually, you will eventually have $1.3M. But if you delay starting for merely 5 years, your results after 35 years will be only $860k. That 5-year delay preserved $25k of short-term capital but ultimately cost you >$400k in the long run. Time is the most powerful lever in the machinery of investing. Nothing else comes close to it.

So what do you need to do? Start saving and investing right out of high school regardless of how hard you think it hurts or how unpleasant the tradeoffs. Even if you set aside only 5% of your paycheck starting out, do it to get into the habit of saving. Delaying getting serious about investing until my 30s was a significant financial mistake on my part. No one ever sat me down and explained how important it is to start investing early. Now that we’ve had this little talk, you’ll never be able to say that no one told you.

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