Are you well and safe?

Have any of your loved ones been impacted by Helene or Milton?

It’s been a rough couple of weeks for the Southeast.

Storms can take a massive toll on families and communities, with challenges that take months and years to resolve.

With an active hurricane season upon us, we’d like to take a moment to talk about how natural disasters can affect markets and the economy.

Natural disasters typically impact the economy in a few ways:

• Regional, national, and even international supply chains can be disrupted as roads and ports close and goods struggle to move from place to place
• Economic growth can slow down as businesses shut down, jobs are lost, and consumer demand slows down
• Markets often experience short-term volatility as investors react to the news and rush to buy and sell
• Energy prices may spike due to scarcity and supply disruptions

While some companies (such as insurers) typically take a hit from anticipated disaster losses, other businesses (like generator manufacturers) may see a spike due to expected demand.¹

This chart shows the financial cost of some hurricanes in the last two decades.

While natural disasters may have a severe short-term impact on local and regional economies, research suggests the long-term negative effects are limited.²

One note to consider: estimates of Helene and Milton damage may be low as it may take years to account for the full cost of property damage, business closures, and economic disruption.

Let’s also keep in mind that billions of dollars in financial losses are massive, but they’re still a drop in the bucket of the overall economy, which is over $27 trillion in size.³

Of course, the plain numbers don’t tell the full story of lives lost and lives disrupted.

Hard-hit areas may take a long time to recover, and some places may never fully return to normal.

In the weeks and months to come, we may see an impact from the hurricanes on inflation, unemployment, and growth data.

 

Sources:

1. https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/07/generator-maker-generac-soars-insurance-stocks-fall-on-hurricane-milton.html

2. https://www.frbsf.org/wp-content/uploads/wp2020-34.pdf

3. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?end=2023&locations=US&start=1960&view=chart

Chart sources: https://www.investors.com/news/hurricane-helene-34-billion-price-tag-stock-market-impact/

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/08/hurricane-milton-could-cause-as-much-as-175-billion-in-damages-according-to-early-estimates.html

https://www.kiplinger.com/slideshow/business/t019-s001-most-expensive-natural-disasters-in-u-s-history/index.html

Whenever you listen to financial experts, there’s one topic that will almost always come up: interest rates. But what do interest rates have to do with your portfolio and wealth?

It turns out, a whole lot.

When you hear the term “interest rates” on the news, it’s usually referring to the Federal Funds Rate, which is the rate that banks use when borrowing from one another. This interest rate is the benchmark set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), and factors in current economic conditions like inflation, employment, and GDP growth.

But why should you care about the Federal Funds Rate?

Because when the country’s benchmark interest rate changes, it has a downstream effect on everything from your mortgage to your investment portfolio. In fact, just a one percentage point decline in interest rates can increase disposable income for individuals across the earning spectrum.¹

Take, for instance, a home mortgage. Say you’re looking to purchase a $346,900 home. With a 7% mortgage rate and a 20% downpayment, your monthly payment would be $1,846. But if your rate decreases by just 1%, you would pay $1,664, a savings of $182 per month. If you factor this change over a 30-year mortgage, you’d save a total of $65,691* in interest.²

Your mortgage is just one example of how an interest rate change can directly affect your wealth. Let’s zoom out to see what happens to the economy, and the downstream effects of interest rate changes.

When interest rates rise

While economic growth is good, too much of it can lead to an overheated economy where prices are rising and inflation is a concern. In these scenarios, the FOMC is likely to increase interest rates to help maintain economic stability.

However, an increase in the Fed Funds Rate is usually not good for stock prices since corporations have a harder time borrowing money and expanding during high interest rate periods.

Here’s how you can look at the differences between rising and falling interest rates:

One last thing: Don’t forget about lag time!

Hopefully, the correlation between interest rates, stocks, debt, and the economy is starting to click. But, you should keep in mind that when interest rates change there is usually a lag time between the policy change and its effect on the economy. According to research from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, it can take anywhere between 18 months to 2 years for interest rate changes to have an impact on the economy.³ 

So, the next time you hear about a potential interest rate change, remember that it will take some time before its effects are felt in the economy, and your portfolio.

The Federal Reserve has been in the headlines a lot lately as analysts try to figure out when policymakers will cut interest rates.

Why does the Fed matter so much?

Let’s discuss.

The Fed’s decisions on interest rates are a big deal for markets and the economy because they affect how much it costs to borrow money.

Since businesses and consumers depend on credit to buy houses, fund business growth, pay workers, and more, interest rate policy decisions ripple across the economy.

Higher interest rates make it more expensive to borrow money and can act as a brake on economic growth.

On the flip side, higher interest rates can be a boon for investors by increasing the yield on savings accounts, bonds, and other debt instruments.

If you’ve found yourself putting off a new mortgage until rates come down or hunting down the best yield on a savings account, you’re experiencing the Fed’s actions in play.

How does the Fed change interest rates?

At a high level, the Fed sets the “target” for the Federal Funds Rate, which is the rate banks and large institutions charge each other.¹

Right now, that target is set at 5.25%—5.5%, and the actual “effective” rate is about 5.3%.

Unfortunately, you and I don’t have access to rates that low.

The rates we can get as consumers, investors, and businesses are set above that lowest rate.

Here’s how that looks in practice.

The rates offered on the market to borrowers and investors are based on factors like risk profile, collateral, and loan length.

You can see in the chart that 30-year mortgage rates are much higher than the base rate, in part because of the length of the loan.

How does the Fed influence the stock market?

You might have noticed how much stock prices can swing when fresh headlines about the Fed’s decisions emerge.

That’s because, all things being equal, lower interest rates are considered better for company performance because they incentivize borrowing and help fuel growth.

When interest rates rise, companies must pay higher rates to access credit, which can hurt their future prospects (and stock price).

Since the stock market tends to be forward-looking, the prospect of lower rates can flip the “greed” switch and trigger a rally as investors bet on future company performance.

That’s what we’ve been seeing in the past few weeks.

When will the Fed lower rates in 2024?

That is the $64,000 question. We don’t know exactly.

The Fed is choosing to move carefully and assess the data.

While we’ve made serious progress in taming inflation, there’s still a ways to go before reaching the Fed’s target of 2% inflation.²

While many investors and economists hope the Fed will start cutting rates this spring and keep to their plan for multiple rate cuts this year, others aren’t convinced.³

Some analysts don’t think the Fed will be in a position to cut rates until next year.⁴

What does all this mean for investors?

Markets are likely to stay volatile as long as interest rates remain uncertain, especially approaching Fed announcement dates.

On the other hand, signs of lower inflation or other data that would support a cut are likely to be greeted with further rallying.

Bottom line: We’re watching, discussing, and strategizing how to position clients this spring.

 

Sources

1. https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/effr

2. https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-inflation-data-january-made-feds-job-harder-barkin-says-2024-02-21

3. https://www.cnbc.com/select/when-will-interest-rates-drop/

4. https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-first-rate-cut-forecast-us-economy-high-interest-impact-2024-2

Chart sources:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IR3TCD01USM156N

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCNS

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPILFENS

As we kick off 2024, the latest data is raising some concerns about inflation.

Let’s dive into some data and take a look.

Inflation is still one of the biggest risk factors we’re watching this year. Here’s why.

While inflation is still well below its 2022 peak, the data shows that the fight toward 2% still has pretty far to go.

Annual inflation has stubbornly remained above 3%, and the December report shows another tick upward.¹

While market watchers are hoping the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates soon, policymakers warn easing off too soon could erode progress and cause inflation to “seesaw.”²

It’s likely that the Fed will be cautious and decide to wait for more data before lowering rates.

However, the longer they keep interest rates high, the more they risk hurting economic growth.

It’s a tough act to balance and the we expect the uncertainty to stoke market volatility.

The December jobs report looked strong, but may be masking some pain.

The latest employment report showed that the economy added a respectable 216,000 jobs. But many of those new jobs were in the public sector and other industries that aren’t sensitive to the economy.³

Small businesses are lowering their hiring expectations, and manufacturers and service companies cut jobs in December.

Another point of concern: jobs numbers have been revised downward in 11 of the last 12 months, suggesting that the economy may be shifting gears and slowing down.

Geopolitical issues are also adding clouds on the horizon.

Ugly wars in Ukraine and Israel are still burning, and attacks on shipping in the Red Sea are adding fresh concerns about global stability.⁴

In addition to the cost in human lives and misery, geopolitical uncertainty may weigh on economic growth and inflation.

On a positive note, December retail sales increased more than expected.⁵

Americans shopped more than anticipated in both November and December, showing that consumers may be in better shape than many economists feared.

While some analysts are already celebrating a “soft landing” and an end to recession worries, we’re still keeping our seatbelts buckled.

The economy is still growing, but we’re expecting to see bumps and potholes on the winding road to “normal” inflation levels.

While recession risks have lowered, we’re still watching carefully.

 

P.S. Congress is considering some ax changes that might kick in before you file your 2023 taxes. The current package includes an increase in the child tax credit and revives some popular business tax breaks, among other details.⁶ Will the deal pass Congress in its current form? We’ll know more soon.

 

Sources

1. https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/a-warning-shot-over-the-last-mile-in-the-inflation-battle/ar-AA1n23O5?ocid=finance-verthp-feeds

2. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-feds-bostic-warns-us-122602986.html

3. https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2024/01/16/recession-signs-soft-landing-forecasts/72209418007/

4. https://www.reuters.com/business/red-sea-attack-fears-disrupt-global-trade-patterns-2024-01-16/

5. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/december-retail-sales-surprise-to-the-upside-133212009.html

6. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/congress-announces-tax-deal-expand-child-tax-credit-business-breaks-rcna134067

Chart sources: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCNS#0, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS

You might have heard that Fitch downgraded the U.S. government’s credit rating in August.1 What does that mean for you? Let’s discuss. Who is Fitch Ratings, anyway? When companies and governments issue bonds, the bonds get rated by one of three agencies: Fitch Ratings, Moody’s, and Standard & Poor’s. The rating represents the agency’s evaluation of the bond issuer’s ability to repay interest and principal and avoid default. The higher the rating, the safer the bonds are considered to be. Fitch downgraded U.S. long-term debt from AAA (the highest possible rating) to AA+ (one grade below). Why did the U.S. get its credit rating cut? A few things are behind the change. A few months ago, the U.S. just avoided defaulting on its debt during another dramatic showdown in Congress. Unfortunately, this partisan dynamic is not new, and Fitch stated that it had lost confidence in U.S. governance after repeated political standoffs on debt. Fitch analysts are also concerned about U.S. deficit spending and our growing national debt.

Publicly held U.S. debt skyrocketed to over 130% of GDP during the pandemic. While it has dropped since then, it is still over 100% of GDP.2 Analysts are concerned that the U.S. doesn’t have a plan to rein in its spending and balance its budget in the years to come. You can see in the chart below that federal spending is projected to far outstrip revenue over the next decade.3

Has a downgrade ever happened before? Yes. In 2011, Standard & Poors downgraded the U.S. from AAA to AA+ after another contentious debt ceiling debate in Congress.1 Since S&P still holds its AA+ rating on U.S. debt, the U.S. has lost its top-shelf status with two out of the three agencies. Will the downgrade hurt the economy? The most obvious consequence is that the U.S. will have to pay higher interest on future debt, increasing its debt load even more.4  Since interest payments form a significant percentage of federal expenditures, this may become a bigger issue in the future.2 However, the economy remains strong, and the downgrade alone is unlikely to spell recession or other dire consequences. Should I be worried? Not really. U.S. Treasury bonds are among the world’s highest quality and most liquid bond investments despite the downgrade. It’s unlikely that will change any time soon. However, we might see some additional stock market volatility as investors digest the implications of the new rating. We can also expect to see higher rates on mortgages, car loans, credit cards, and other types of debt to account for the change. On the flip side, we’ll likely see higher yields on bonds and savings accounts to compensate for the added risk. Bottom line, this downgrade certainly isn’t good news. However, it’s not likely to impact the average American in any significant way.

Sources: 1. https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/03/what-us-credit-rating-downgrade-means-for-your-money.html 2. https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/02/14/facts-about-the-us-national-debt/ 3. https://www.cbo.gov/publication/58946#_idTextAnchor004 4. https://www.usfunds.com/resource/the-implications-of-fitch-ratings-u-s-credit-downgrade/ Chart sources: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USRECQ, https://www.cbo.gov/publication/58946#_idTextAnchor007

As we consider the tensions driving recent market movements, a Korean folk saying seems apt:

“When whales fight, the shrimp’s back is broken.”

The idea is that bystanders get hurt when big folks duke it out.

What are the tensions? Who are the bystanders?

Let’s discuss.

An invasion of Ukraine may occur in the coming days or weeks.

Or it might not. It’s really impossible to say.

The U.S. has closed the embassy in Kyiv and warned of a dramatic buildup of Russian forces on the border with Ukraine.¹

It’s unclear whether Russia is willing to diplomatically resolve security concerns about Ukraine joining NATO.²

However, a ground war between NATO and Russia would be extremely damaging, so it seems (hopefully) unlikely that Russian troops would actually invade.

Then again, they might.

That seesaw between high tension and relief is likely to add a lot of volatility to markets as investors digest the latest news.

The Federal Reserve may aggressively raise interest rates to fight inflation.³

With inflation at historic highs, some Fed officials worry that the central bank’s credibility — AKA, their ability to manage inflation and employment — is on the line.

Rate hikes are coming in 2022, but how many and how quickly? That’s up for debate by the Federal Open Market Committee next month.

Fed “hawks” want to raise rates quickly to try to bring inflation under control and increase consumer confidence and trust.

Fed “doves” want to carefully raise rates and watch the data to avoid damaging growth or spooking markets.

These are big decisions with big consequences for us, the economy, and markets.

While FOMC meetings are often dry affairs, the next one looks to have as much drama as an episode of Succession.

We’ll stay tuned.

Bottom line: there are a lot of factors driving market movements, so we can expect to see plenty of volatility in the weeks to come.

Given the Fed and geopolitical tensions at play, a pullback or correction would not be surprising, either.

What can we do when we’re facing major events we can’t control?

Take a deep breath, be grateful for all the good in our lives, and focus on our strategy.

(And email us with questions or concerns.)

Let’s hope for peace and clarity in the weeks to come.

We’re keeping a close watch and will reach out as needed.

Be well,
Your NorthStar Team

P.S. Looking for a mental break? Here’s an interesting TEDx talk on “The Science and Power of Hope.” It’s given by Dr. Chan Hellman, whose research focuses on the psychological power of hope to overcome adversity and create change.

Let us know what you think!

¹https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/13/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

²https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60379833

³https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/14/bullard-say-the-fed-needs-to-front-load-tightening-because-inflation-is-possibly-accelerating.html

How are you feeling about work these days? Are you taking stock of your life and thinking about moving on? (You’re not alone.) Are you a boss struggling to fill roles and retain your people? (You’re in good company.) America is going through a pretty major reconfiguration of the labor market. Headlines are calling it the “Great Resignation” but I think it’s deeper than that. The pandemic threw many assumptions out of the window. It caused us to think long and hard about a lot of things. Where we work. How we work. What work means. What we want out of life. That existential crisis is visible on the supply side of the labor market: Folks retiring ahead of schedule (not all by choice).1 Folks quitting their jobs.2 Folks (primarily women) caring for kids and family instead of going back to work.3 Folks striking over pay and working conditions.4 Folks starting new businesses.5 And it’s visible on the demand side as well: Restaurants struggling to staff up.6 Shipping ports clogging up because there aren’t enough truckers to haul goods away.7 Employers offering higher wages and perks to attract job seekers.8 At its most basic level, employment is a transaction: a certain amount of work for a certain amount of pay. But it’s really much more than that. For many of us, who we are as a worker… A business owner… A boss… Is central to our identity. And the ground is shifting under our feet. That makes folks anxious. High-anxiety times like these bring plenty of judgment, blame, and dramatic headlines. Are workers who don’t want to take low-paying, high burnout jobs lazy? Of course not. Are business owners worried about keeping their doors open evil capitalists? Nope. Are employees organizing strikes or leaving for better opportunities disloyal? No way. We’re all doing the best we can every day. When we see talking heads griping about “entitled” workers or “greedy” businesses, let’s remember that behind the numbers are real people with real struggles. A parent with a medically fragile kid who is afraid to go back to work. A business owner who worries the staffing shortage will put her out of business. A laid-off worker who doesn’t have the skills needed to get a different job. A manager who is doing two jobs because he can’t fill a key role. Let’s be compassionate toward one another. What does the labor market upheaval mean for the economy? That’s hard to say. It could cause a slowdown in some sectors if businesses struggle to fulfill demand. It could lead to increased inflation if higher wages get passed on as higher prices. It could be a factor in a market correction. It could also accelerate trends toward automation, remote work, and offshoring. Bottom line: Like most major events in history, the overall consequences won’t be fully visible for a long time. 1https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2021/09/28/why-are-americans-retiring-earlier 2https://news.yahoo.com/why-american-workers-are-quitting-in-record-numbers-151116968.html 3https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/the-pandemic-was-a-breaking-point-for-caretakers-will-it-be-a-turning-point 4https://www.reuters.com/world/us/enoughs-enough-tight-us-job-market-triggers-strikes-more-pay-2021-10-18/ 5https://www.gspublishing.com/content/research/en/reports/2021/10/04/be005ed1-1b6b-42f7-af9b-fb209077ca35.html 6https://www.wboy.com/news/health/coronavirus/restaurants-continue-to-face-staffing-shortages/ 7https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/14/business/supply-chain-ports-biden-inflation/index.html 8https://www.retaildive.com/news/retailers-are-betting-on-wage-hikes-perks-to-woo-workers-ahead-of-the-holi/607815/

One big thing you may have heard about in the headlines is the Federal Reserve’s hint that it might start “tapering” soon.1 Could the Fed’s actions cause a market correction or economic slowdown? Let’s discuss. First of all, what does ”tapering” mean? In econ-speak, tapering means winding down the pace of the assets Fed has been buying since last summer. Why is it a big deal? Well, the last time the Fed tapered in 2013, during the recovery from the 2008 financial crisis, markets panicked and pitched a “taper tantrum.”2 That’s because traders worried that less Fed support would hurt fundamentals and potentially cause a market downturn. Now, that old taper tantrum narrative is making folks worry that another market downturn could be ahead of us, especially with concerns about the Delta variant. Before we dive into what could happen, let’s talk about where we are and how we got here. When the pandemic started, the Fed slashed interest rates and began buying $120 billion a month in bonds and mortgage-backed securities to reduce interest rates, lower borrowing costs, and give businesses and the economy a boost.1 However, now that the economy is much stronger, the employment situation has improved, and inflation is a concern, the Fed wants to start paring back those asset purchases to return interest rates to a more “natural” level. What could that look like? Obviously, we don’t know exactly when or how the Fed will decide to act, but analysts have some pretty good guesses. The latest prediction by Bank of America suggests tapering could start this November as the Fed gradually pares back asset purchases through next year.1 The takeaway is that the Fed isn’t going to stop buying assets and raise interest rates immediately. It’s going to gradually remove the support and see how the economy reacts. So, will we see another taper pullback? The main reason folks worry about the Fed reducing support is because of the effect higher interest rates could have on stocks, particularly companies that rely on borrowed money. However, interest rates are just one piece of the puzzle. Economic fundamentals, earnings, and other factors also weigh on stock prices. With the benefit of hindsight, we can see that the 2013 taper tantrum wasn’t even that bad. The S&P 500 tumbled 5.8% over the course of a month, but quickly recovered (the caveat here is always this: the past does not predict the future).2 (Sidebar — keep in mind the 2013 taper tantrum decline of 5.8% was less than half of the the average intra-year decline of 13.8% annually that we typically see in the stock market.  I.e., yet another piece of “noise”…a semi-random, temporary decline overlaid on the market’s permanent, long-term advance.) We think the main reason markets declined in 2013 was that investors hadn’t experienced tapering before; they didn’t have context for what the Fed would do. Since we’ve seen this happen before fairly recently, we think that uncertainty is lessened. However, we also have other worries to consider: a deteriorating crisis in Afghanistan, continued pandemic worries, and political wrangling over infrastructure. Any of these factors could derail the bull market. But it’s not going to be the end of the world. Pullbacks, corrections, and bear markets are always something we should expect. They happen regularly and are a natural part of markets. Bear markets are common — they occur about 1 in 5 years and there have been 16 since World War II. With the average retirement lasting 30 years, you should expect to encounter 6 bears during this encore of your life. So, the Fed is one more thing we’re keeping an eye on, and we’ll reach out if there’s more you should know. 1 https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/fed-taper-asset-purchases-november-bonds-mbs-federal-reserve-economy-2021-8 2 https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-taper-scare-what-comes-next-51629505091

 

Headlines are looking grim again, so let’s pause and take stock. Why are the headlines terrible? Because the media loves drama. This is not news to you or us or anyone who pays attention. The 24-hour news cycle is there to whip up emotions and keep us glued to the latest “BREAKING NEWS.” So, what’s behind the noise and should we worry? Before we jump into unpacking the news, let’s take a moment and remind ourselves of how far we’ve come since the pandemic began. You can see it right here in this chart: We’ve recovered the vast majority of jobs lost since the bottom of the pandemic’s disruption last April. The economy is still missing several million jobs to regain pre-pandemic levels, but we’ve made up a lot of ground, and jobs growth is still strong.1 In fact, there are more job openings right now than job seekers to fill them.2 But there’s an important caveat to the chart above. The monthly jobs report is what economists call a “lagging” indicator, meaning that it’s telling us where the economy was, not where it’s going. To figure out what might lie ahead, economists turn to “leading” economic indicators that help forecast future trends. So, what are the leading indicators telling us about the economy? A couple of the most popular indicators are manufacturing orders for long-lasting (durable) goods, since companies don’t like to order expensive equipment unless they expect to need soon. Another one is groundbreaking (starts) on new houses, which indicate how much demand builders expect for housing. Let’s take a look: Both indicators suggest continued (if bumpy) growth. Now, those are just two sectors, and we want to be thorough, so let’s take a look at a composite. The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) gives us a quick overview each month of several indicators. It increased by 0.7% in June, following a 1.2% increase in May, and a 1.3% increase in April, showing broad, but slowing growth.3 What does that tell us? That the economy still has legs. Will the Delta variant derail the recovery? New numbers came out this morning showing that retail sales fell slightly (1.1%) in July from the month before, with spending down broadly across categories as concerns about the Delta variant grew. But most economists, while acknowledging the threat posed by the current rise in Covid cases, aren’t expecting a significant slowdown in consumer spending. Though a serious slowdown due to the Delta variant seems unlikely, we could potentially see a bumpy fall, especially in vulnerable industries and areas with surging case counts. There’s also some potentially good news about the Delta variant that we can take from other countries. India and Great Britain both experienced Delta-driven surges earlier this summer.4 And what happened? A steep and scary rise in case counts and hospitalizations…followed by a rapid decline. It seems that these fast-moving Delta waves might burn themselves out. Unfortunately, these surges come with a painful human cost to patients, overburdened medical staff, communities, and families. But, if this pattern holds true in the U.S., it doesn’t appear that the economic impact will be heavy enough to derail the recovery. All this to say, it’s clear that the pandemic is still not over. But we’ve come such a long way since the darkest days of 2020 and the road ahead still seems bright (if a little potholed). Please remember to take panicky headlines with a shaker or two of salt. We’re here and we’re keeping watch for you. Have questions? Please reach out. P.S. The bipartisan infrastructure deal is still making its way through Congress, and we don’t yet know what the final details will look like. The Democrat-led infrastructure deal is also in the works, but we’re not likely to see serious movement until the fall. We’ll keep updating you as we know more.   1 https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/06/jobs-report-july-.html 2 https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/07/there-are-about-1-million-more-job-openings-than-people-looking-for-work.html 3 https://conference-board.org/pdf_free/press/US%20LEI%20PRESS%20RELEASE%20-%20July%202021.pdf 4 https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/08/the-u-k-s-delta-surge-is-collapsing-will-ours.html