Blog - Page 29 of 70 - NorthStar Capital Advisors

Bear Market Truths

With the new year off to an anxious start for investors, perhaps it’s a good time to remember some essential facts about down markets. Ben Carlson provide a great run down of 10 bear market truths:

1. They happen. Sometimes stocks go down. That’s why they’re called risk assets. Half of all years since 1950 have seen a double-digit correction in stocks. Get used to it.

2. They’re a natural outcome of a complex system run by emotions and divergent opinions. Humans tend to take things too far, so losses are inevitable.

3. Everyone says they’re healthy until they actually happen. Then they’re scary and investors who were looking for a better entry point begin to panic.

4. The majority of the people who have been scaring investors by predicting a bear market every single month for the past seven years will be the last ones to put their money to work when one actually hits.

5. It’s an arbitrary number. I have no idea why everyone decided that a 20% loss constitutes a bear market. The media will pay a lot of attention to this definition while it doesn’t matter at all to investors. The 1990s saw zero 20% corrections but two 19% drawdowns. Stocks also lost 19% in 2011. Does that extra 1% really matter?

6. Buy and hold feels great during a long bull market. It only works as a strategy if you continue to buy and hold when stocks fall. Both are much easier to do when stocks rise.

7. Your favorite pundit isn’t going to be able to help you make it through the next one. Perspective and context can help, but there’s nothing that can prepare an investor for the gut-punch you feel when seeing a chunk of your portfolio fall in value.

8. History is a broad outline of what can happen in the markets, not what will happen. Every cycle is different.

9. They’re very difficult to predict. All of the valuations, fundamentals, technicals and sentiment data in the world won’t help you predict when or why investors decide it’s time to panic.

10. These are the times that successful investors separate themselves from the pack. Most investors mistakenly assume that you make all of your money during bull markets. The reason so many investors fail is because they make poor decisions when markets fall.

Source: AWCS

Top Investing Ideas for 2016 (or any other year)

It that time of year where the financial media machine is awash with seemingly important predictions for the new year. Despite all the hype, no one can reliably forecast market moving events or trends. Resisting the urge to build investment strategies around faulty forecasts, Bob Seawright provides a quick summary of his top investment ideas for 2016 (or any other year), none of which is dependent upon predicting the future:

Einstein wisely advised that we keep things as simple as possible, but no simpler. Overly complicated systems, from financial derivatives to tax systems, are difficult to comprehend, easy to exploit and possibly dangerous. Simple rules, in contrast, can make us smart and create a safer world.
Out of our general fear, we all too frequently bail on our investments and our plans and fail to invest altogether. But if we’re going to succeed, we need to invest, continue to invest and stay the course. Multiple studies have shown that those who trade the most earn the lowest returns. Remember Pascal’s wisdom: “All man’s miseries derive from not being able to sit in a quiet room alone.”
The Uniform Prudent Investor Act stated: “Because broad diversification is fundamental to the concept of risk management, it is incorporated into the definition of prudent investing.” Fortunately, a well-diversified portfolio captures most of the potential upside available with much lower volatility. On the other hand, a well-diversified portfolio will always include some poor performers, and that’s hard for us to abide. Do it anyway.
The idea that an investor ought to be aware and nimble enough to avoid market downturns or simply to find and move into better investments is remarkably appealing. But nobody does it successfully over time. We’ve all seen and done this: we find a hot new approach or hot new manager and, because what we own hasn’t been doing so well, we switch, only to find that the hotness that caused us to buy has cooled. We need to get off that merry-go-round.
The leading factor in the success or failure of any investment is fees. In fact, the relationship between fees and performance is an inverse one. Every investor needs to count costs.
Multiple studies establish what we should already know: a manager who has a significant ownership stake in his fund is much more likely to do well than one who doesn’t. Make sure to look for “skin in the game” from every money manager you use.
Don’t be afraid to ask for and get help. American virologist David Baltimore, who won the Nobel Prize for Medicine in 1975, once told me that over the years (and especially while he was president of Caltech) he had received many manuscripts claiming to have solved some great scientific problem or overthrown the existing scientific paradigm to provide some grand theory of everything. Many prominent scientists have drawers full of similar submissions, usually from people working alone and outside the scientific community. As Dr. Baltimore emphasized, good science is a collaborative, community effort; crackpots work alone.

Happy New Year and all the best in 2016!

Source: TA

Happy Holidays from NorthStar Capital Advisors

There are so many reasons to be thankful. We would like to take a moment to say thank you and give you our warmest wishes to you and your family.

Season’s Greetings, with a happy, healthy, and prosperous 2016!

Financial Advising Jedi?

With today’s opening of “The Force Awakens”, Ryan Neal has a great piece on “Star Wars” lessons for financial planning. Here are some excerpts and adaptions to help you answer the perennial question, Is my financial advisor a Jedi Master?

The Power of Holistic Planning

As young Skywalker’s advisor, Obi Wan Kenobi teaches him that the Force, an energy field created by all living things that binds the galaxy together, is the source of his power. For financial advisors to truly unlock their potential, they need to have a holistic view of their clients’ financial lives, as well as a mastery of investment strategy. By understanding how various accounts, needs and goals all connect together, an advisor can be a truly powerful guide for their clients.

Sticking to the Plan

While Luke is a neophyte just learning the ways of the Force, Han Solo is a hardened skeptic, disregarding advisors like Obi Wan Kenobi and instead preferring the lifestyle of a risk taker, which has led him to real problems with debt. When Luke gets distracted by Solo’s taunts, Kenobi reminds him to trust in his plan instead of making knee-jerk reactions. While things get rocky along the way, Luke eventually reaches his goal of becoming a Jedi Knight. It’s a good reminder for when the markets get rough: Trust in the plan, mitigate short-term emotional reactions, and focus on long-term goals. Han may call it luck, but advisors know there’s no such thing.

The Quick and Easy Path Leads to the Dark Side

We learn more about the Force in the 1980s’ “Empire Strikes Back,” when Jedi master Yoda teaches Luke about the Dark Side. Like a good advisor, he tells Luke that chasing instant gratification, like investing heavily in a hot stock, can lead to ruin. When Luke ignores the advice, he’s almost defeated by Darth Vader. Yoda reminds us that patience is key with investing, not adventure or excitement.

Know Your Advisor’s True Value

Though his investment strategy might be questionable, Han Solo does understand value. Luke is shocked when Solo initially discloses his fees to pilot them across the galaxy in the Millennium Falcon. Luke says he could buy and pilot his own starship for less, but Obi Wan Kenobi knows expertise can command a fair price and even offers to spend more to ensure results. It turned out that Luke didn’t know flying through hyperspace from dusting crops, and Solo’s experience came in handy.

It’s Not Just About Money

Though Han Solo told Princess Leia that he doesn’t care about her or the rebellion, he becomes a true hero after he realizes that there’s more to life than money. Advisors are worth more than just allocating assets and providing returns; they can be even more valuable to clients by helping them navigate important milestones in life, like buying a home, sending kids to college, and retiring comfortably. Remember what Leia told Han: “If money is all that you love, then that’s what you’ll receive.”

Don’t Judge by Appearances

“Judge me by my size, do you?” Yoda may be small, but his power with the force is great. Similarly, many investors often think bigger is better and don’t realize that small boutique firms can provide superior guidance.

Source: WM

Mapping Student Debt

More than 42 million Americans owe a total of $1.1 trillion in student debt, making it the second-largest liability on the national balance sheet. A generation ago, student debt was a relative rarity, but for today’s students and recent graduates, it’s a central fact of economic life that we don’t know much about. Mapping Student Debt is changing that. The maps below show how borrowing for college affects the nation, your city, and even your neighborhood, giving a new perspective on the way in which student debt relates to economic inequality.

Click for the full, interactive map

Source: Mapping Student Debt

Global Financial Literacy & Gender

The scatter plot above charts the global relationship between Gross Domestic Product (GPD) per person (horizontal axis) versus financial literacy (vertical axis). Each dot represents one of the 93 countries surveyed. The color of the dot encodes the gender gap between the financial literary of men and women in each country (deep blue = men score 20% higher than women; dark pink = case where women score 5% higher than men; white = case where men and women are the same).

Key observations:

Men score higher in financial literacy than women in the vast majority of countries. Notable and rare exceptions include: Britain, UAE, and Mexico.
Generally speaking, the wealthier the country, the higher the citizens’ financial literacy.
The Scandinavian countries are the most financially literate (average score ~70%), while the lowest are Angola and Albania at ~15%.

Source: The Economist

Turkey Dinner Flies Past $50

This year’s turkey dinner will cost you an extra $0.70 or 1.4% compared to last year. The average cost of a classic Thanksgiving Dinner for 10 people is $50.11 according to the American Farm Bureau Federation’s survey. The relative price stability of the turkey index mirrors the government’s Consumer Price Index for food eaten at home which increased 0.7% compared to last year.

The bird soaks up the lion’s share of the budget at 46% of the meal’s cost. The 16-pound turkey came in at $23.04 this year or $1.44 per pound. The biggest year-over-year change on a percentage basis was milk which cost decreased 13.6% year-over-year. The turkey contributed the biggest percentage and dollar increase at +6.4% and $1.39.

The average cost of a turkey dinner has hovered around $49 since 2011. This year’s survey totaled over $50 for the first time since the survey began 30 years ago.

Happy Thanksgiving!

Source: AFBF

Financial Free Lunch?

Barry Ritholtz lays bare the myth…

Deep down inside, you already know this: There ain’t no such thing as a free lunch, financially or otherwise.

Of so many free lunches, this is the hard truth:

You are not going to win the lottery.
Hot stock tips are worthless (the only exceptions are those especially costly tips that will get you sent to federal prison).
You are not going to buy an iPad from one of those deal sites for $3.
No, you are not likely to buy in early to the next Apple or Netflix, and if you do, you are unlikely to hold it long enough.
No, you are not going to make $10,000 gambling at fantasy sports.
You (or your kid) are not going to be the next Michael Jordan or Adele.
The odds are radically against you finding the mutual fund manager or stock broker who is going to make you fabulously rich.
Indeed, the odds are against you stock picking, market timing or investing in a venture fund, private equity fund or hedge fund that, over the long haul, is going to outperform a simple index fund.

Source: BR

Lucrative Social Security Strategy Ends

A new budget bill passed by Congress last week will end a lucrative maneuver that retiring couples have used to maximize their Social Security benefits. The file-and-suspend and restricted application option that has been available since 2000 will go away in 2016. Smart use of this strategy can add tens of thousands of dollars to a couple’s lifetime retirement income by permitting one spouse to claim as many as four additional years of spousal benefits. The cornerstone of this approach is the advantage of accessing delayed retirement credits which increase earned benefits by 6% to 8% for each year the claim is deferred.

Social Security will no longer allow family members to submit a new claim for spousal benefits on a suspended benefit starting 6 months after the budget bill goes into effect. If you are 66 or older now or will turn 66 within the next 6 months, you should consider the potential benefit in filing and immediately suspending your benefit. Also, if you turned 62 this year or are older, you will still be able to file a restricted application when you turn 66. Families already using the strategy will be grandfathered and their benefits won’t change.

The devil is in the details so reach out to your financial advisor for assistance in evaluating your options.

College Aid Planning Will Start Earlier

Going forward college aid will computed based on “prior prior year” income instead of “prior year”. This means that current high-school sophomores who will graduate in 2018 will 2016, not 2017, as the base year in reporting family income on their first FAFSA form (Free Application for Federal Student Aid). Since student financial aid generally increases as family income decreases, the idea is to strategically manage family taxable income lower.

Families with Class of 2018 students will want to consider the following:

Look for opportunities to shift 2016 income into this year and delay deductions.
For example, parents of sophomores that are considering a Roth IRA conversion may want to do this before year-end since this boosts taxable income.
It would not be wise to prepay the January mortgage and property-tax bills in December (remember, we want to delay and maximize deductions into 2016).
If you receive an annual bonus, see if it’s possible to receive that bonus by December 31st instead of January.
Impacted families that were planning on selling a taxable investment in 2016 should consider moving faster and locking in the capital gains into 2015.
Parents who own businesses could speed up billing to pull payments into 2015 and delay deductible purchases until next year. They could also wait until 2016 to setup and contribute to a simplified employee pension plan.

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