How did 2023 go for you?

Before the year ends, I like to sit down and review, thinking through what went well and what didn’t.

I try to mentally put the old year to bed before the new year kicks off.

Do you have a similar ritual you follow?

As we enter the final weeks of 2023, let’s take a moment to review some of the year’s major market and economic trends.

(Before I sign off, I’ll also pass along a few thoughts about what 2024 could have in store.)

AI became a major tech trend¹

After ChatGPT launched in late 2022, the AI space race took off, with major updates and models hitting the headlines nearly every month.

AI will likely continue to play a major role next year as the tech matures and more companies find ways to use it in their operations.

Though major banks failed in Q1, we survived the crisis²

Markets reeled in the spring when several banks, including big leaguer Credit Suisse, failed in rapid succession due to exposure to risky assets.

Though many worried the financial contagion would spread and kick off a bigger crisis, regulators moved quickly and were able to resolve the situation, protecting the overall financial system.

Washington’s financial squabbles just kept coming

The federal government teetered on the brink of shutdown multiple times this year as lawmakers used financial deadlines to play at brinkmanship.

Fortunately, a shutdown was averted each time.

However, the political games affected U.S. credibility, leading ratings agencies to downgrade U.S. credit and financial outlook, which could increase consumer borrowing costs.^3,4

Interest rates may have (finally) peaked⁵

The push-pull between high inflation and high interest rates continued to be a major trend this year.

However, now that inflation looks to be on a strong downward trend, the Fed might be done hiking and pivot to cutting rates in 2024.

The economy shrugged off recession fears and grew⁶

Despite a lot of worrying headlines, we didn’t actually see a recession in 2023.

In fact, the economy turned out three straight quarters of growth, powered by strong U.S. consumers.

Will the economy continue to grow? Or will high interest rates knock it off track?

We’ll see in 2024.

Markets gained ground despite a bumpy road⁷

Despite many struggles along the way, the stock market rallied in 2023, regaining a lot of lost ground since the market bottom in 2022.

Some analysts say we’re already in a bull market, while others won’t officially call it until we regain the previous market peak.⁸

What does 2024 have in store for us?

We’re watching a lot of trends.

With a contentious election season ahead, markets will likely find plenty of volatility.

A serious correction may be in store, especially if recession fears return.

However, despite what the overblown headlines will tell you, election cycles are just one of the variables that impact markets.

Economics, business performance, and plain old investor psychology all play a part in how markets perform.

Will that predicted recession show up in 2024?

Opinions are mixed, as always. Some economists see slowing growth next year with no recession, while others still believe a recession could happen.

Bottom line

We’re watching, preparing, and thinking ahead about how to position our clients for various scenarios.

Until then, I hope you have a relaxing and amazing end to your 2023.

Sincerely yours,
Dr. Chris

Looking ahead at a home purchase?

High rates convincing you to stay put as long as possible?

With mortgage rates pushing above 7%, you might think a reasonable mortgage is out of reach.

We’ve got some not-so-great news for you. Current rates aren’t actually that high, historically speaking.

They just look high because we’ve gotten used to low rates over the last few decades.

But here’s some good news:

You actually have more leverage as a buyer than you might think.

The reality is that many lenders and home sellers are losing deals as buyers get cold feet.

They’re increasingly willing to find creative ways to get your business.

Those pressures could work in your favor.

Here are three tips on finding a decent mortgage in a high-rate environment.

#1 ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS shop around for your mortgage

While it’s common for real estate firms to push you toward a lender they know and like to work with, mortgage rates can vary tremendously by lender.

That “dispersion” of rates for the same borrower means getting multiple quotes and comparing the total cost of the loan can save you thousands.

One study found that borrowers who compared at least four rate quotes could have saved more than $1,200 each year.¹

A quick way to compare loans is to look at the loan’s annual percentage rate (APR).

If two loans offer the same interest rate, but one has a higher APR, that means higher costs are baked into the details.

#2 Ask lenders to reduce or eliminate fees

Once you’ve picked a lender or two, take a look at the loan estimates and look for opportunities to negotiate.

You can even ask lenders to beat their competitors’ offers if you get everything in writing.

If you already have a relationship with a lender, you can sometimes leverage customer loyalty to try for a better deal.

In some cases, you can even ask the lender to add a no-cost refinance in the future, so feel free to negotiate beyond what’s already in the estimate.

#3 Ask sellers for closing credits or a rate buy-down

Closing costs can add a lot to your home purchase, so asking sellers for help covering those fees can make a big difference to your out-of-pocket costs.

In some cases, you might find sellers and homebuilders willing to offer a rate buy-down, in which they help you temporarily or permanently lower your mortgage rate.

A temporary buy-down allows you to temporarily pay a lower interest rate for the first few years of the mortgage.

A permanent buy-down allows you to permanently lower your interest rate across the life of the loan.

One note: A permanent buy-down would look less attractive if rates fall in the future, so it’s wise to compare your options and understand the tradeoffs.

Mortgage rates will likely remain high, so becoming a savvy negotiator can help save you thousands.

Today I want to zoom out to talk about the principles and beliefs that underpin good financial planning.

On its own, “financial planning” is a very broad and nebulous term.

But let’s narrow and clarify this.

These are the core principles from my perspective as a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™, a retirement planning firm owner, and someone who has walked this path with successful & thriving families for the past 17 years.

#1 — To Be Successful, You Must Have a Plan: Just like you don’t get into your car without a destination and an approximate route to get there in mind, financial planning is much the same. To be successful, we must first define what success means — that is the identification of your life’s purpose and the goals associated with that purpose. Then we can craft a financial strategy specifically designed to pursue those objectives.

#2 — We Are Planning Focused: Many firms are either primarily insurance or investment focused, whereas we are planning-focused. This is because we know that decisions made in one area will impact many others. Thus, we constantly keep your complete financial life in mind to ensure proper alignment between each of your life’s goals.

#3 — Financial Planning Is Not Precise; It Is Adaptive: We know that the world (markets, economy, tax law, etc.) and our personal lives (income, health, family) are ever-changing. A plan that sits on a shelf couldn’t possibly account for all that life will throw at you, so we meet regularly throughout the year to adjust your plan as needed to reflect the current reality.

#4 — We Control the Things We Can Control: We will not pretend to know which way the market will go next as there are no facts about the future. We believe in controlling what we can control. That is, the amount we save, how long we give our savings to grow, our asset allocation, our behavior, how we plan to minimize our lifetime tax bill, and how we plan for various risks. These are what will ultimately determine your success.

#5 — Prepare for What Can Go Wrong; Invest for What Can Go Right: Even the absolute best investment portfolio can be undone if you are not prepared for life’s what-ifs. A few examples might include an unexpected death, health issues, accidents, lawsuits, or becoming disabled. Planning for and insuring against these risks is what allows us to invest for all that can go right. We cannot control what happens to us, so it is imperative that we are prepared for each of these possibilities.

#6 — Good Planning Has a Long Time Horizon: We view every client relationship as a lifelong partnership. This is a significant advantage because our single objective is to provide advice that will (hopefully) result in the accomplishment of your multi-decade goals and we expect to walk with you every step of the way.

#7 — We Follow Our Own Advice: As the steward of our clients’ complete financial lives, we believe that we should plan for our own financial lives by using these same financial planning principles. So, that’s exactly what we do.

Whether you’re doing this work on your own or partnering with a professional, I strongly believe these concepts are critical to your process of success.

By the way, you will notice that much of the specifics in terms of HOW we do financial planning is purposefully omitted (click here if you’re curious about those technical details).

I’ve done this for a reason.  It’s much more important that we agree on the core principles at a 30,000-foot level — versus specific tools & techniques —  to achieve your best outcomes.

To your planning & continued success,
Dr. Chris

Markets are doing their thing again, so let’s discuss.

Markets tumbled, heading into negative territory, and then bounced back. And then promptly fell again.¹

We’re caught in a whipsaw pattern of uncertainty.

Is this weird?

Not really. These things happen pretty regularly when investors get jittery.

Let’s talk about what’s going on.

(Scroll to the end if you just want my takeaways.)

What led to the selloff?

Phew. There’s a lot going on.²

There’s yet another debt ceiling deadlock between Congress and the White House.

Worries about the banking sector continue.

Sticky inflation is still on everyone’s radar.

And then there’s the endless speculation about recessions and what the Federal Reserve might do next.

All these stressors lead to jumpy investors and nervous markets.

Could we see another serious correction?

Absolutely. If the debt ceiling standoff drags on or more bad headlines appear, markets could react negatively.

And, corrections and pullbacks happen very frequently because there’s always something going on.

How often? Let’s go to the data.

Here’s a chart that shows just how often markets dip each year. (You may have seen this chart before because it’s an oldie and goodie.)

Take a look at the red circles to see the market drops each year.

The big takeaway? In 15 of the last 23 years, markets have dropped at least 10% each year.³

Market pullbacks happen all the time.

We’re dealing with a lot of uncertainty and investors are feeling cautious.

However, that doesn’t mean that we should panic and rush for the exits.

Markets are going to be turbulent this year and knee-jerk reactions can be costly.

I don’t have a crystal ball, so I don’t know how it’s all going to play out, but this situation isn’t surprising.

We expected volatility and we’re prepared.

Any questions or concerns I can address? Send me an email (chrismullis@nstarcapital.com) or call at 704-350-5028 ext 7. I’m here to help.

Dr. Chris

Sources

1. https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/07/business/stocks-week-ahead/index.html
2. https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/08/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
3. https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/insights/market-insights/guide-to-the-markets/mi-guide-to-the-markets-us.pdf

Losing a job can feel devastating (especially when you didn’t see it coming).

And there’s a lot that seems urgent all at once.

If that’s not something you’ve ever had to deal with, I’m glad to hear it because you’re lucky.

If you’ve experienced that kind of loss before, you probably remember the stress and pressure. And you survived it. Maybe used it as fuel to thrive.

If you ever have to deal with a job loss, here are 9 things you should do:

1. Take a deep breath. You’re going to be ok.

2. Get the contact information for HR. You’ll probably lose access to your email and these folks will be key to helping you with post-employment details like health insurance, retirement accounts, documents, etc.

3. Confirm the dates and details of your separation. Before you sign anything, make sure you fully understand the details of what you’re being offered.

Is there severance? A pension buyout? Continued vesting of company stock?

Is there any room for negotiating dates or amounts? Now is the time to ask.

4. File for unemployment if you’re eligible. You’ve earned it.

5. Tell the folks you love and ask for their support. Let them know if there are any specific ways they can help you (they’ll want to help). They might ask questions you don’t have answers to. It’s ok to say “I don’t know the answer right now, but I’m confident I’ll figure it out.”

6. Explore your health insurance options. It’s worth running the numbers before deciding between COBRA coverage, a new policy, or getting added to your partner’s insurance (if that’s an option).

7. Triage your spending. Review your monthly bills and determine what’s critical and what can be scaled back or cut if necessary.

8. Identify your sources of income and savings. I can help you figure out which accounts to draw down and in what order.

9. Network and jump into your job search. If possible, take some time to recover your equilibrium before plunging back into the job market.

I won’t pretend that losing your job is a picnic, but you might find that it unlocks dreams and depths that were previously hidden from you.

Be well,
Dr. Chris

Is it 2008 all over again? Should we be worried about the financial system collapsing?

Deep breath. Let’s discuss.

On March 10th, Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), a bank catering to startups closed its doors after it could no longer cover withdrawals.¹

Days later, regulators also took over Signature Bank.

There’s reason to believe a number of other banks may be in trouble.² Rising interest rates are hitting many banking portfolios hard and weaknesses are emerging.

Should we be panicked about these bank failures?

No. Here’s why:

The affected banks are small in the context of the overall banking system.

You can see in the chart above how small the two failed banks are relative to other, larger financial institutions.³

They also serve high-risk niches. These banks have a lot of exposure to cryptocurrencies, startups, and other highly volatile asset classes.⁴

Those risky assets can make them more vulnerable to bank runs and liquidity issues. Which is what we’re seeing happen.

Will more banks collapse?

That’s very possible. Moody’s, a rating agency, reported that it’s watching several other institutions with potential problems.²

Some larger banks may be affected as well, but it looks like regulators are stepping in quickly to protect the overall financial system.

What can we take away from the SVB failure?

We think it’s a good time for one of Warren Buffett’s famous bits of wisdom:

“Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.”

What he means is that adverse conditions expose vulnerabilities and risky choices.

Many strategies can look brilliant when markets are booming. You don’t always know or appreciate the risks until conditions turn against you.

Clearly, a number of institutions are finding that out.

We think there’s a lesson here for us as well:

When times are good, we might not worry too much about our income or our expenses. Or the risks we take in the market.

But when times get tough, we start appreciating the risks we’ve taken and the obligations we’ve taken on.

Understanding our actual tolerance for risk and our ability to withstand rocky times is absolutely critical.

It’s very hard to do when the sun is shining and life is good. But it’s a skill well worth developing because we can expect to experience bear markets, recessions, and uncertain conditions throughout our lives.

Sources

1. https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/13/investing/silicon-valley-bank-collapse-explained/index.html
2. https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/14/moodys-cuts-outlook-on-us-banking-system-to-negative-citing-rapidly-deteriorating-operating-environment.html
3. https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/03/13/bank-failure-size-svb-signature/
4. https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/12/regulators-close-new-yorks-signature-bank-citing-systemic-risk.html

Chart source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/03/13/bank-failure-size-svb-signature/