Behavior Archives - Page 3 of 11 - NorthStar Capital Advisors

10 Most Common Behavior Biases of Investors

Robert Seawright with Madison Avenue Securities assembled this list of the ten most common behavioral biases that hinder investors:

Confirmation bias – we gather facts and see those facts in a way that supports our pre-conceived conclusions
Optimism bias – our confidence in our judgement is usually greater than our objective accuracy
Loss aversion – the pain of losing $100 is at least twice as impactful as the pleasure of gaining $100 (causes investors to hold onto their losing stocks too long)
Self-serving bias – the good stuff that happens is my doing while the bad stuff is somebody else’s fault
Planning fallacy – overrate our own capacities and exaggerate our abilities to shape the future
Choice paralysis – we are readily paralyzed when there are too many choices
Herding – we run in herds, latching onto the group think and moving in lock step
We Prefer Stories to Analysis – people love a good narrative and prefer to be swept up by the story rather than work through the definitive numbers
Recency bias – we tend to extrapolate recent events into the future indefinitely
Bias blind-spot – the inability to recognize that we suffer from the aforementioned cognitive distortions!

The Investor Sentiment Wheel

Tune Out the Noise…your portfolio will thank you for it!

One Day in Mainstream Media Market Headlines…

6:00 AM MarketWatch US Futures Down As Euro Pressures Mount

6:30 AM TheStreet.com US Stock Futures Recover on Amazon Tablet Expectation

7:15 AM MarketWatch Stocks Fall in Pre-Market Amid Global Concerns

8:00 AM Minyanville Stocks Buoyant Ahead of August Durable Goods Orders

8:10 Wall Street Journal US Marts Down Briefly, Techs Remain Higher

9:15 AM TheStreet.com US Stocks Mixed Ahead of Open After Durable Goods Orders

9:45 AM MarketWatch Stocks Decline Slightly On Economic Concerns

10:15 AM MarketWatch US Stocks Fall on European Woes

11:00 AM Minyanville Stocks Up After Morning in Which They Were Slightly Down

11:30 AM TheStreet.com Stocks Exist at Half Past 11 AM this Morning

12:00 PM MarketWatch Stocks Slightly Higher at Mid-Day as I Pick Up My Dry Cleaning

12:15 PM Bloomberg Markets Stabilize as Japanese PM Explains Proclivity for Vending Machine Pornography

12:30 PM Minyanville US Markets Rally Modestly as Stocks Don’t Be Down

1:00 PM TheStreet.com Stocks Off Slightly After Cloud Passes Briefly in Front of the Sun

1:30 PM Reuters We are Better than You and You Probably Realise that by Now

1:50 PM Wall Street Journal US Stocks Extend Advance after Not Extending Decline

2:15 PM Minyanville Markets in Retreat as Euro Pressures Threaten Global Recovery

3:10 PM TheStreet.com US Stocks Unchanged, We Are Seriously Running Out of Reasons for Random Things You Guys

3:11 PM TheStreet.com US Stocks Still Unchanged, We Just Checked For You

3:34 PM Bloomberg Markets Neutral Into the Close

3:37 PM MarketWatch Neutral Markets Into the Close

3:50 PM Wall Street Journal Stocks Set to Close Flat on Session as European Woes Continue to Cause Concern

3:56 PM Reuters US Stock Market Flat on Close

4:01 PM MarketWatch No Change in US Stocks Today on Excessive Nonsensical Headlines, Tune in Tomorrow

Avoid getting caught up in the hype and drama of media’s talking heads.

The Best Advisors Will Tell You “NO”

As a fiduciary we’re obligated to put our clients’ interests first. This essential mandate can on occasion run into direct conflict with what a client wants. There are circumstances where an advisor knows that what the client is requesting defies common sense and is at odds with his or her long-term interest.

What kind of things are we talking about? Here’s a short list courtesy Barry Ritholtz:

• Taking on more risk than is prudent.

• Buying the hot new thing.

• Participating in an expensive, underperforming private investment (e.g., hedge funds, venture capital).

• Using excess leverage.

• Following the advice of pundits or talking heads.

• Overtrading.

• Pursuing the latest media fixation.

• Speculating in commodities.

• Allowing emotions to steer investments.

• Buying low-quality, high-yield “junk” fixed income paper.

• Buying non-liquid investments (private equity, gated private investments).

• Market timing.

• Buying IPOs.

• Cherry-picking portfolio allocations.

Our gently communicated but firm response to all of these is “NO.” All the academic research in the world suggests these are a bad bet. As Barry says, “if you want to make an expensive gamble, enjoy a lovely vacation to Monte Carlo, but please leave your retirement plans out of it.”

That’s our stance on this issue and we take it from a position of deep care and protection for our clients. But what’s your opinion? Should advisors do what a client wants, even when the advisor knows it is not in the client’s best interests?

P.S. In case you’re wondering…here’s what a big “YES” is in our book:
We invest through a broadly diversified set of indexes via a robust asset allocation model. It is global, inexpensive and primarily passive. It is statistically what is most likely to generate the highest returns for the least amount of risk over the long-term.

10 Signs You Own the Right Portfolio

The following elegant observation comes courtesy of Jonathan Clements.

You’re so well diversified that you always own at least one disappointing investment.
Your livelihood isn’t riding on both your paycheck and your employer’s stock.
If the stock market’s performance over the next five years was miserable, you wouldn’t be.
You can remember the last time you rebalanced.
You have no clue how your investments will perform, but a great handle on how much they’ll cost you.
You don’t have any hot stocks to boast about.
For every dollar you’ve salted away, you have an eventual use in mind—and the dollars are invested accordingly.
Jim Cramer? Who’s that?
A year from now, you plan to own the same investments.
You never say to yourself, “Wow, I didn’t expect that.”

Source: JC

10 Cognitive Biases That Affect Your Investment & Everyday Decisions

Research suggests that we make up to 35,000 decisions every single day. Emotions, experiences, and environment can strongly influence our decision making process. Enjoy the cartoons below and learn more about common cognitive biases that impact your everyday life and your investing behavior.

Bandwagon Effect: Believing or doing something because people around you believe or do it

Availability Heuristic: Overestimating the importance of information that is easiest to recall

Dunning-Kruger Effect: Unskilled individuals overestimating their  abilities and experts underestimating theirs

Framing Effect: Drawing different conclusions from the  same information presented differently

Confirmation Bias: Seeking and prioritizing information  that confirms your existing beliefs

Curse of Knowledge: Struggling to see a problem from the perspective of someone with less knowledge than you

Reactance: The desire to do the opposite of what is requested or  advised, due to a perceived threat to freedom of choice

The Sunk Cost Fallacy: Refusing to abandon something unrewarding because you’ve already invested in it

Hindsight Bias: Believing that you could have predicted an event after it has occurred

Anchoring Effect: Excessively focusing on the first piece of  information you receive when making a decision

Source: Towergate

America — How are you saving?

Vanguard just released their annual report on the state of retirement savings in America: How America Saves 2018

There’s a ton of great info in the report, but we want to highlight some good news…and some bad news.

First, let’s start with the positives:

Participation rates: More people are enrolled in defined-contribution plans;

Portfolio composition: This has improved, as plans have moved away from random fund selection and toward either target-date funds or balanced funds;

Automatic enrollment: Up 300 percent since 2003;

Automatic annual deferral-rate increases: Two-thirds of participants do this;

Account balances: Most have increased substantially.

And, now the bad news:

Total savings: It’s still not enough, and it suggests a large swath of the public either doesn’t save enough or can’t save. You can blame some of it on lack of wage gains during the past few decades. The huge increase in the cost of health care, housing and education certainly doesn’t help. Nor does our profligate, consumption-driven lifestyle. But no matter the reason, the conclusion is inescapable: many Americans are not financially prepared to retire. Perhaps that’s why so many of them are working well into their 80s.

More nudges are needed: Savings for many people are not keeping pace with their pay increases. There is a tendency to set and forget 401(k) contributions, and not revisit the issue ever again. The solution is to have automatic increases for retirement-savings contributions as pay increases.

Target-date funds: These funds automatically adjust the balance of stocks and bonds over time, shifting more heavily toward bonds as the participant gets closer to retirement. The problem is that given increasing modern lifespans, these funds may end up being too conservative in the final decade or two of work for many participants.

To have and to have not: To paraphrase Hemingway, the rich are different: they not only have more money, they also have more retirement savings. The advantages of being wealthy are manifest versus middle- and lower-income savers. Although most of the investment industry targets the wealthy, the underfunded retirement plans of the rest of America continue to be a serious issue.

Spend some time reading through Vanguard’s report to not only help you get the best from your retirement-savings plan, but also help America do better with its future retirement.

Source: Vanguard

Index Card of Personal Finance Essentials

Simplicity is a great foundation and powerful foil to unnecessary complexity. University of Chicago professor Harold Pollack champions this approach to personal finance and dashed out this index card to make his point.

We work with our clients to go above and beyond the common sense, but it’s built upon a strong foundation of essentials similar to Dr. Pollack’s.

Class of 2018: Financial Advice That will CHANGE YOUR LIFE

The following is a brief excerpt from the commencement address by Dr. Chris Mullis to the graduating class of Providence Day School on May 31, 2013. The full text of Dr. Mullis’ speech, that includes career advice, financial guidance, and a few pearls of wisdom, can be found here.

At my investment advisory firm, we developed complex computer algorithms and use them to manage our clients’ investment portfolios. But the basic steps you need to take to manage your own money well are deceptively simple. First, live within your means and avoid being caught up in rapid lifestyle inflation. You will not live like your parents when you first start out. Second, save and invest your money wisely. Let me elaborate on this point.

Wealth accumulation depends on three factors: how much you save, the rate at which your money grows, and how long you save. That last factor, time, is very, very important. There’s an urban legend that Albert Einstein once said that compounding interest is the most powerful force in the Universe. That quote is likely misattributed but the message is spot on. If you save $5,000 a year for 40 years and earn 8% annually, you will eventually have $1.3M. But if you delay starting for merely 5 years, your results after 35 years will be only $860k. That 5-year delay preserved $25k of short-term capital but ultimately cost you >$400k in the long run. Time is the most powerful lever in the machinery of investing. Nothing else comes close to it.

So what do you need to do? Start saving and investing right out of high school regardless of how hard you think it hurts or how unpleasant the tradeoffs. Even if you set aside only 5% of your paycheck starting out, do it to get into the habit of saving. Delaying getting serious about investing until my 30s was a significant financial mistake on my part. No one ever sat me down and explained how important it is to start investing early. Now that we’ve had this little talk, you’ll never be able to say that no one told you.

Financial Free Lunch?

Barry Ritholtz lays bare the myth…

Deep down inside, you already know this: There ain’t no such thing as a free lunch, financially or otherwise.

Of so many free lunches, this is the hard truth:

You are not going to win the lottery.
Hot stock tips are worthless (the only exceptions are those especially costly tips that will get you sent to federal prison).
You are not going to buy an iPad from one of those deal sites for $3.
No, you are not likely to buy in early to the next Apple or Netflix, and if you do, you are unlikely to hold it long enough.
No, you are not going to make $10,000 gambling at fantasy sports.
You (or your kid) are not going to be the next Michael Jordan or Adele.
The odds are radically against you finding the mutual fund manager or stock broker who is going to make you fabulously rich.
Indeed, the odds are against you stock picking, market timing or investing in a venture fund, private equity fund or hedge fund that, over the long haul, is going to outperform a simple index fund.

Source: BR

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