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Hard times (hope inside)

  • March 15, 2022/
  • Posted By : admin/
  • 0 comments /
  • Under : Live Well
Hard times are here.

(I’m still optimistic, though; I’ll explain why at the end.)

People are dying, running for their lives, and watching everything they’ve worked for go up in literal flames.

And, because of technology, we’ve got a front-row seat in real time.

Energy prices are spiking, markets are gyrating.

Oh yeah, there’s still a pandemic.

Sometimes, it’s just one thing after another and everything all at once.

What do we do? How do we deal with it?

I think it depends on the day.

Some days, we’re overwhelmed and struggle to make progress.

Other days we press on and focus on putting one foot in front of the other.

Some of us look to our faith for guidance.

We also remember that humans are resilient creatures who have survived and thrived through some terrible times.

We remember that we’re not alone.

You’re not alone. I’m not alone. They’re not alone.

We reach out for help on our bad days and offer support on our good days.

We volunteer, donate, speak up, and take action.

I was a big Mr. Rogers fan growing up.  He had me from the moment I saw “Trolley” because I lived and breathed trains as a child.

There’s a quote by Mr. Rogers that often shows up during crises:

“When I was a boy and I would see scary things in the news, my mother would say to me, ‘Look for the helpers. You will always find people who are helping.’”

As adults, we’ve got a greater burden to carry—we must become the helpers.

I think the secret to getting through is kindness and love.

If we look closely, we can find it happening right now.

Volunteers leaving strollers for Ukrainian families who will need them when they arrive in Poland and Slovakia.1

Residents of a refugee camp throwing a birthday party for a 7-year-old girl.2

Berliners welcoming refugees in train stations and opening their homes.3

Groups greeting Afghan refugees with open arms and housewarming gifts in Detroit.4

In the midst of everything, we can offer each other kindness, encouragement, and support.

Hoping for peace,
Dr. Chris

P.S. Looking for ways to help Ukrainians? Here are a few.

P.P.S. Markets are reacting to energy prices, economic concerns, and uncertainty as we’d expect: with extreme volatility.  Remember the stock market is like yo-yoing while climbing Mount Everest — lots of ups and downs in the short term, overlaid on a relentless uptrend. If you have questions about what you should or should not be doing around your portfolio, let’s talk about that!

1https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2022/03/07/strollers-ukraine-polish-train-station/9412895002/

2https://www.newsweek.com/refugee-camp-throws-birthday-celebration-7-year-old-ukrainian-girl-1685113

3https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60611188

4https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/wayne-county/2022/03/05/resettled-afghan-refugees-given-housewarming-kits-faith-groups/9323799002/

Chris Mullis photo
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Chris Mullis, Ph.D., CDFA®
NorthStar Capital Advisors
704-350-5028 ext 7
chrismullis@nstarcapital.com
521 East Blvd, Charlotte, NC 28203
RetireNorth.com
LinkedInFacebookTwitter
Celebrating 16 Years • 2006-2022

 


What comes next?

  • March 1, 2022/
  • Posted By : admin/
  • 0 comments /
  • Under : Market Outlook

Some perspective on the grim situation in Ukraine and what could happen in markets.

(Need a break from it? Scroll down to the P.S.)

The invasion of Ukraine is a serious and scary escalation in tensions between Russia, Europe, and the United States.

Before we dive in to what it could mean, let’s take a moment to think about the many folks who are suffering and dying as well as the ordinary Russians who will suffer from sanctions, instability, and economic damage.

We hope and pray that diplomacy can end this crisis for all our sakes.

Let’s talk about some possible implications for markets and our economy.

Given Ukraine’s critical pipelines and Western sanctions on Russia, the crisis may lead to higher energy prices, which will trickle down to higher pump and heating fuel costs.1

Sustained price increases could hamper the Federal Reserve’s effort to control inflation, so we’re keeping an eye on that as well.

What could happen in markets?

Extreme volatility, as we’ve already experienced, is very likely. Another correction (or even a bear market) is definitely possible.

What does history teach us about market reactions to geopolitical shocks?

History shows that stocks usually recover quickly from geopolitical crises.

We’ll add a disclaimer that the future doesn’t perfectly match the past — but it often rhymes.

Let’s take a look at some examples from other invasions and wars.2

Here’s the key takeaway: short-term, markets usually react badly. However, a year later, markets have historically recovered.

Will they always? In every case? That’s impossible to say.

But, the study of 29 geopolitical events since WWII shows a general trend toward short-term losses in the first weeks and longer-term gains over months.2

A note: “geopolitical event” is a very antiseptic phrase for horrible things like bombings, wars, invasions, attacks, and really fails to encompass the full cost in human misery.

Let’s never forget the truth behind the numbers.

We can’t know or control what happens next. We can hope, pray, donate, and speak out.

And we can focus on what’s in our control: Ourselves, our actions and reactions, and our strategies for uncertain times.

Let’s hug the people we love extra tightly today and be very grateful for our blessings.

Be well,
Dr. Chris & the NorthStar Team

 

P.S. Tired of war and bad news? Need a break? We’ve got two TED talks for you:
1) A dive into research that shows how our brains might be wired for optimism
2) How to forge meaning from challenging moments.

P.P.S. Looking for ways to donate to Ukrainians? Here’s a roundup of some organizations doing good work.

 

1 – https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/27/business/oil-prices-russia-ukraine.html
2 – https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/live-markets-what-history-says-about-geopolitics-market-2022-02-18/


An exogenous variable

  • February 24, 2022/
  • Posted By : admin/
  • 0 comments /
  • Under : Investing 101
Not 48 days ago, I wrote the following in our annual letter to clients and friends:

“In general, I think it most likely that in the coming year, (a) the lethality of the virus continues to wane, (b) the world economy continues to reopen, (c) corporate earnings continue to advance, (d) the Federal Reserve begins draining excess liquidity from the banking system with some resultant increase in interest rates, (e) inflation subsides somewhat, and (f) barring some other exogenous variable – which we can never really do – equity values continue to advance, though at something less (and probably a lot less) than the blazing pace at which they’ve been soaring since the market trough of March 2020…Please don’t mistake this for a forecast. [If it’s wrong] my recommendations to you will be unaffected, since our investment policy is driven entirely by the plan we’ve made, and not at all by current events (emphasis added).”

Exogenous means the variable or the event is coming from outside.

Russia/Ukraine is the exogenous variable du jour. The investment policy of goal-focused, plan-driven, long-term stock investors, like you and I, should be unaffected by it.

That concludes this memo’s core message; everything else is commentary.

Under the heading of commentary:

(1)  The Russia/Ukraine event has nothing to do with “democracy.” It has to do with energy, which is the lifeblood of the Russian kleptocracy. Russia supplies 40% of Europe’s heating fuel, in the form of natural gas. One of the two aging pipelines through which the gas is transmitted runs through Ukraine, which had lately evinced a growing yearning for increased ties to the West. Putin could never allow this. (See Lukas Alpert’s essay on MarketWatch.)

(2)  At around 4,100, the S&P 500 has experienced a drawdown about equal to its average since 1980.

(3)  At the risk of making a political statement: A great deal of good can come out of all this, if and to the extent that it leads both the United States and Europe to a significant reappraisal of their respective energy policies, to the detriment of Putin’s Russia.

My thoughts and heart are with the people of Ukraine and our US military personnel deployed in Eastern Europe.

Chris Mullis photo
NCA Logo
Chris Mullis, Ph.D., CDFA®
NorthStar Capital Advisors
704-350-5028 ext 7
chrismullis@nstarcapital.com
521 East Blvd, Charlotte, NC 28203
RetireNorth.com
LinkedInFacebookTwitter
Celebrating 16 Years • 2006-2022

 


When whales fight

  • February 15, 2022/
  • Posted By : admin/
  • 0 comments /
  • Under : Economy

As we consider the tensions driving recent market movements, a Korean folk saying seems apt:

“When whales fight, the shrimp’s back is broken.”

The idea is that bystanders get hurt when big folks duke it out.

What are the tensions? Who are the bystanders?

Let’s discuss.

An invasion of Ukraine may occur in the coming days or weeks.

Or it might not. It’s really impossible to say.

The U.S. has closed the embassy in Kyiv and warned of a dramatic buildup of Russian forces on the border with Ukraine.1

It’s unclear whether Russia is willing to diplomatically resolve security concerns about Ukraine joining NATO.2

However, a ground war between NATO and Russia would be extremely damaging, so it seems (hopefully) unlikely that Russian troops would actually invade.

Then again, they might.

That seesaw between high tension and relief is likely to add a lot of volatility to markets as investors digest the latest news.

The Federal Reserve may aggressively raise interest rates to fight inflation.3

With inflation at historic highs, some Fed officials worry that the central bank’s credibility — AKA, their ability to manage inflation and employment — is on the line.

Rate hikes are coming in 2022, but how many and how quickly? That’s up for debate by the Federal Open Market Committee next month.

Fed “hawks” want to raise rates quickly to try to bring inflation under control and increase consumer confidence and trust.

Fed “doves” want to carefully raise rates and watch the data to avoid damaging growth or spooking markets.

These are big decisions with big consequences for us, the economy, and markets.

While FOMC meetings are often dry affairs, the next one looks to have as much drama as an episode of Succession.

We’ll stay tuned.

Bottom line: there are a lot of factors driving market movements, so we can expect to see plenty of volatility in the weeks to come.

Given the Fed and geopolitical tensions at play, a pullback or correction would not be surprising, either.

What can we do when we’re facing major events we can’t control?

Take a deep breath, be grateful for all the good in our lives, and focus on our strategy.

(And email us with questions or concerns.)

Let’s hope for peace and clarity in the weeks to come.

We’re keeping a close watch and will reach out as needed.

Be well,
Your NorthStar Team

P.S. Looking for a mental break? Here’s an interesting TEDx talk on “The Science and Power of Hope.” It’s given by Dr. Chan Hellman, whose research focuses on the psychological power of hope to overcome adversity and create change.

Let us know what you think!

1https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/13/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

2https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60379833

3https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/14/bullard-say-the-fed-needs-to-front-load-tightening-because-inflation-is-possibly-accelerating.html


How to make the most of life’s most important $$ lessons

  • February 8, 2022/
  • Posted By : admin/
  • 0 comments /
  • Under : Personal Finance
What’s the first big lesson you learned about money?

How did you learn it?

Many of us start learning about finance as kids.1

We watch those around us, and we learn by trial and error.2

That can teach us some important basics about finance. And it can open the door to learning some of life’s major lessons about money.

What are those lessons and when’s the best time to learn them?

When it comes to life’s lessons about money, you can’t always expect to learn them in school — and the sooner you know them, the better.

Those life-changing finance lessons are the focus of this month’s Visual Insights Newsletter.

Click here to see it!

The lessons we pick up about money can influence our choices, and they can stick with us for life.

No matter when you learn them, it’s never too late to find better ways to leverage them.

Go ahead and click here to check out the 5 powerful money lessons you’ll wish you knew sooner.

1 – https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/why-we-need-to-teach-kids-about-money-2021-10
2 – https://youth.gov/youth-topics/financial-capability-literacy/facts


Powerful 2022?

  • December 30, 2021/
  • Posted By : admin/
  • 0 comments /
  • Under : Live Well
What do you think about starting a new year with resolutions and goals?

Do you like to plan your year that way or do you prefer to just wing it?

We made a quick video talking about three simple (but powerful) questions you can use to set the stage for an amazing 2022.

You can watch it here.

 

Transcription:

Hi, I’m Dr. Chris Mullis with NorthStar Capital Advisors, and I’m here to help you launch 2022 with a great mindset.

In this video, I’m going to talk about three simple (but powerful) questions you can ask yourself to set the stage for an amazing year, even when so much around us is unpredictable and up in the air.

One question before we start: why set goals or intentions at all?

Sure, you could just show up and wing it, but if you’re watching this video, I bet you’re someone who wants more out of life.

And starting your year with a focus on where you want to go, is a great way to be more mindful of what you take on and how you spend your time.

What do you want more of this year?
Is it time? Travel? Experiences?
Commit them to paper.

How do you want to show up for your family, your friends, and your community?

Who is most important to you and how can you invest in those relationships?

What do you want to get better at this year? Personally? Professionally? Mentally? It’s all fair game.

As we close the door on 2021 and set the stage for 2022, there’s a lot that is beyond our control.

That’s why setting a direction is so critical: we can achieve incredible things by paying attention to what’s most important to us and intentionally focusing on improvement.

To throw a sports analogy at you: a player can’t control whether their team makes it to the championship, but they can improve their odds by perfecting a skill, improving their mental game, and supporting their teammates.

Thanks for watching. If you have a question about what I’ve discussed with you or you’d like to speak personally about what’s going on, please send me a message. I’ll respond personally.

Whatever 2022 holds, I hope it brings you joy, excitement, and prosperity.

 


A Teachable Moment

  • December 5, 2021/
  • Posted By : admin/
  • 0 comments /
  • Under : Market Outlook

Click image to view speech 

Today marks a most significant anniversary in the economic and financial history of the United States, and I could not let it pass without comment. When properly appreciated, it can serve as an importantly teachable moment.

For it was a quarter century ago, on the night of Thursday, December 5, 1996, that the iconic Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan, speaking at a dinner of the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, gave his instantly legendary “irrational exuberance” speech.

And this is what the oracle said. Or more accurately, this is what he asked:

“How do we know when irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset values, which then become subject to unexpected and prolonged contractions as they have in Japan over the past decade? And how do we factor that assessment into monetary policy?” [43:38 in the video above]

Mr. Greenspan asked these twin rhetorical questions essentially because he did not have conclusive answers. And if he didn’t, you knew no one else in the world did either. But coming from him, even this interrogative form of thinking out loud was a financial thunderbolt — a shot heard round the world.

He surely understood that, when he so much as broached the question, he had at least suggested an answer. And that answer was unmistakably: we’re either already there, or will be mighty soon, as this greatest of all bull markets morphs into mania.

I thought it might be instructive — as well as a certain amount of good fun — to cast an eye over the intervening quarter century. Let’s begin with a key item of baseline data that may and certainly should inform our inquiry.

Fact: The Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index had closed that Thursday afternoon, in blissful ignorance of what was coming later in the evening, at 744.38. And sure enough — just as the oracle had darkly suggested it must — the S&P 500 topped out…three years, three months and 19 days later, on March 24, 2000, at 1,527.50. You read that right: it more than doubled in the 40 months after Greenspan’s dire warning.

I suppose I could just stop here, invite you to draw the obvious inference from the above, and call it a day. Said inference is, of course: No one — no central banker, no economist, no market strategist, no hedge fund manager — no one can predict the market, much less tell you where to get out and/or back in. The economy cannot be consistently forecast, nor the market consistently timed. By anyone.

But before I let you go, I’d just like to throw out a very few other potentially relevant factoids.

  • Friday afternoon, December 3, the S&P 500 closed at 4,538.43, up more than six times since Greenspan spoke.
  • With dividends reinvested, and any taxes paid from some other source, $10,000 invested in the S&P 500 on 12/4/96 is getting pretty close to $100,000 along about now.
  • The earnings of the S&P 500 for the year 1996 were $40.63. With less than a month to go in the current year, the consensus forecast is around $200, up almost exactly five times.
  • The S&P 500’s cash dividend in 1996 was $14.90. Consensus forecast for this year is about $60, up almost exactly four times. 
  • The Consumer Price Index was 158.6 in December 1996. It will most likely close out this year around 280, up a mere 1.8 times.

What, then, was the single best financial decision you could have made on Thursday night, December 5, 1996 — when the 11 o’clock news breathlessly reported Greenspan’s electrifying remarks? Right: turn off the TV and go to bed.

Just my opinion, of course, but the best move you can make this morning, 25 years on, regardless of the headlines? The same: turn off the TV, log out of your computer. Enjoy the rest of your day.

And let the compounding proceed, uninterrupted.

With every good wish,
Dr. Chris Mullis

Sources:
Historical S&P 500 Index and dividends: “S&P 500 Earnings History, NYU Stern School”
Consensus 2021 earnings forecast: Yardeni Research
Consensus 2021 dividend forecast: Bloomberg
Consumer Price Index: Inflationdata.com
Current net profit margin of the S&P 500: FactSet

 


How do you select the ultimate gift?

  • December 1, 2021/
  • Posted By : admin/
  • 0 comments /
  • Under : Personal Finance

Let’s face it. Buying meaningful gifts for our family and friends is really, really hard.

If you want to give something that has a larger impact long after the holiday season has passed, why not give the gift of financial knowledge and wisdom for living a fulfilled life?

Given the academic background of our firm, we know the following is going to be a big shocker:We really love reading books and giving books as gifts!

Below you’ll find our 2021 Guide to Gifts That Pay Off.

It’s full of our 23 favorite money-related and living-big gift recommendations for those ages 4 to 94!

Let us highlight a couple of our new recommendations this year:

  • The Total Money Makeover (Dave Ramsey)
    A proven plan for financial fitness
    We love giving this book out to our clients for their adult children. And we like to give these out as graduation and wedding gifts with a $100 bill tucked inside. About 80% of this book is really good, but we (and history) may not agree with perhaps the other 20% (e.g., unrealistic investment return assumptions; over-reliance on growth investments; unsustainably high withdrawal rates in retirement). Nonetheless, Mr. Ramsey does a great job of teaching the basics of money.
  • The Price You Pay for College (Ron Lieber)
    An entirely new road map for the biggest financial decision your family will ever make
    One of our savvy clients in Washington, D.C. brought this 2021 book to our attention and it’s excellent! This book discusses why college costs so much, digs into the allure of elite schools, uncovers hacks that may not really be hacks, and talks about how to plan and pay for college.
  • Knocking on Heaven’s Door (Katy Butler)
    The path to a better way of death
    While it can be very difficult, having tough conversations about end-of-life care well in advance can help our dying loved ones cope later on. We have the ability to cultivate a “good death.” Give this book to your parents if they are still living and discuss it with them. And depending on your age, give it to your spouse and discuss it with them.
  • Retirement Heaven or Hell (Michael Drak et al.)
    9 principles for designing your ideal post-career lifestyle
    Don’t be fooled, the transition to retirement is a very difficult transition for many. To retire well you need enough purpose to wake up in the morning and enough money to sleep at night. Taking the time to read this book, reflect, explore, and be intentional will mean the difference between ending up in “retirement heaven” and “retirement hell.”

So what is the ultimate gift of 2021?

Life-changing wisdom about managing your money and living your best life that you can give to those that you truly care about!

Happy gifting,
The NorthStar Team

2021 NorthStar Guide To Gifts That Pay Off


Children

Money Ninja: A Children’s Book About Saving, Investing, and Donating
Young readers learn how money can work for them instead of spending it.

Money Savvy Pig
The piggy bank for the 21st century!
Finance 101 for Kids: Money Lessons Children Cannot Afford to Miss
Informative and entertaining book to help children get on the right path to making smart personal financial decisions.


Teenagers

O.M.G. Official Money Guide for Teenagers
How to turn pocket money into power and freedom

Cash Cache
The award-winning personal finance organizer for teens!

What Color Is Your Parachute for Teens
Career guide for teens to help zero in on their favorite skills and find their perfect major or career


College Students

Why Didn’t They Teach Me This in School?
99 personal money management principles to live by

Adulting 101: #Wisdom4Life
A complete guide on life planning, responsibility and goal setting

They Don’t Teach Corporate in College
A twenty-something’s guide to the business world


Young Professionals

Generation Earn
Young professional’s guide to spending, investing, and giving back

The Total Money Makeover
A proven plan for financial fitness

Jumpstart Your Marriage & Your Money
Guide to help couples stop worrying about money and start building wealth together.


Parents with Children at Home

Raising Financially Fit Kids
Help prepare your children for a lifetime of smart money decisions

The Opposite of Spoiled
Raising kids who are grounded, generous, and smart about money

The Price You Pay for College
An entirely new road map for the biggest financial decision your family will ever make


Adults

Happy Money
Are you getting the biggest happiness bang for your buck?

5 Book
Where will you be five years from today?

Life Reimagined
The science, art, and opportunity of midlife

Retirement Heaven or Hell
9 principles for designing your ideal post-career lifestyle

I’ve Decided to Live 120 Years: The Ancient Secret to Longevity, Vitality, and Life Transformation
Ignite the true spirit of what it means to live fully


Caregivers & Golden Agers

Being Mortal
Medicine and what matters in the end

On Living
An uplifting meditation on how important it is to make peace and meaning of our lives while we still have them

Knocking on Heaven’s Door
The path to a better way of death

 


Gut check (on your job)

  • October 27, 2021/
  • Posted By : admin/
  • 0 comments /
  • Under : Economy
How are you feeling about work these days?

Are you taking stock of your life and thinking about moving on? (You’re not alone.)

Are you a boss struggling to fill roles and retain your people? (You’re in good company.)

America is going through a pretty major reconfiguration of the labor market.

Headlines are calling it the “Great Resignation” but I think it’s deeper than that.

The pandemic threw many assumptions out of the window. It caused us to think long and hard about a lot of things.

Where we work. How we work. What work means. What we want out of life.

That existential crisis is visible on the supply side of the labor market:

Folks retiring ahead of schedule (not all by choice).1

Folks quitting their jobs.2

Folks (primarily women) caring for kids and family instead of going back to work.3

Folks striking over pay and working conditions.4

Folks starting new businesses.5

And it’s visible on the demand side as well:

Restaurants struggling to staff up.6

Shipping ports clogging up because there aren’t enough truckers to haul goods away.7

Employers offering higher wages and perks to attract job seekers.8

At its most basic level, employment is a transaction: a certain amount of work for a certain amount of pay.

But it’s really much more than that.

For many of us, who we are as a worker…

A business owner…

A boss…

Is central to our identity.

And the ground is shifting under our feet. That makes folks anxious.

High-anxiety times like these bring plenty of judgment, blame, and dramatic headlines.

Are workers who don’t want to take low-paying, high burnout jobs lazy?

Of course not.

Are business owners worried about keeping their doors open evil capitalists?

Nope.

Are employees organizing strikes or leaving for better opportunities disloyal?

No way.

We’re all doing the best we can every day.

When we see talking heads griping about “entitled” workers or “greedy” businesses, let’s remember that behind the numbers are real people with real struggles.

A parent with a medically fragile kid who is afraid to go back to work.

A business owner who worries the staffing shortage will put her out of business.

A laid-off worker who doesn’t have the skills needed to get a different job.

A manager who is doing two jobs because he can’t fill a key role.

Let’s be compassionate toward one another.

What does the labor market upheaval mean for the economy?

That’s hard to say.

It could cause a slowdown in some sectors if businesses struggle to fulfill demand.

It could lead to increased inflation if higher wages get passed on as higher prices.

It could be a factor in a market correction.

It could also accelerate trends toward automation, remote work, and offshoring.

Bottom line: Like most major events in history, the overall consequences won’t be fully visible for a long time.

1https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2021/09/28/why-are-americans-retiring-earlier
2https://news.yahoo.com/why-american-workers-are-quitting-in-record-numbers-151116968.html
3https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/the-pandemic-was-a-breaking-point-for-caretakers-will-it-be-a-turning-point
4https://www.reuters.com/world/us/enoughs-enough-tight-us-job-market-triggers-strikes-more-pay-2021-10-18/
5https://www.gspublishing.com/content/research/en/reports/2021/10/04/be005ed1-1b6b-42f7-af9b-fb209077ca35.html
6https://www.wboy.com/news/health/coronavirus/restaurants-continue-to-face-staffing-shortages/
7https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/14/business/supply-chain-ports-biden-inflation/index.html
8https://www.retaildive.com/news/retailers-are-betting-on-wage-hikes-perks-to-woo-workers-ahead-of-the-holi/607815/


Will your taxes go up under the new proposal?

  • September 22, 2021/
  • Posted By : admin/
  • 0 comments /
  • Under : Tax Planning
By now, you’ve likely seen that the House Ways and Means Committee released a draft of major tax legislation last week.

What’s ahead?

Significant changes to U.S. tax policy for 2022 seem likely, including around income tax rates, rules regarding retirement accounts, estate and transfer laws and much more.

Many of the features of Biden’s original plan are included in the House plan, most significantly the raising of income and capital gains tax rates on high earners.

The changes that have been made suggest that a lot of negotiations have already taken place among Democrats so, if the legislation becomes law, its final form will likely be similar to the House plan.

How will this impact you?

We’ve already parsed through the draft and have started building some of the proposed changes into our tax planning tools so that we will be able to illustrate, on a “what if” basis, the potential impacts to our clients compared to the current tax law.

While we do that, we wanted to provide you with a quick summary of some of the key points of the proposed legislation (as best as we can glean at the present time):

  • Single filers with income below $400,000 and Married Filing Joint filers with income below $450,000 will probably not see significant impact right away. 
  • Taxpayers with income over those thresholds should expect higher marginal rates and higher capital gains rates.  
    • The bill brings back the 39.6% marginal bracket on ordinary income while compressing the existing 32% and 35% brackets.
    • For folks over the $400K/$450K thresholds, capital gains increase from 20% to 25%. While unpleasant, recall that President Biden’s original proposal included a top capital gains rate of 39.6%. 
  • The strategy of making non-deductible IRA contributions and then converting them to a Roth IRA – or the “backdoor Roth” – looks like it’s on its way out starting in 2022.  The same goes for the “mega backdoor Roth” strategy inside of 401k plans. 
  • Increases to both the Child Tax Credit and the Child and Dependent Care Credits.
  • Elimination of Roth conversions for folks over the income thresholds…but not until 2031!
  • The gift and estate tax exemption amounts would effectively be cut in half starting in 2022. That would still be over $5 million/person, though. 
  • Application of the 3.8% Net Investment Income Tax (NIIT) to S-corp distributions for taxpayers with income higher than $400,000 (individual) or $500,000 (married filing jointly). 
  • Limitations of the QBI Deduction (199A deduction) for high income taxpayers 

There’s plenty more in the bill, but these are the points that seem to apply to the most people.

One additional item worth keeping track of is a 3% surcharge on very, very high-income people. But that’s also going to apply to trusts with income of over $100,000. For clients who have left IRAs to a trust for the benefit of minor children, this income threshold may come faster than you think given the 10-year requirement to deplete an inherited IRA.

REMEMBER: Tip your server, not the IRS

The legislation will now be debated in Congress and finalized in the weeks to come.

We continue to monitor developments and strategize around this plan to give you the best possible outcomes when this new tax reality arrives.

 


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